The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Interesting spread - relatively speaking:

High vaccination rates - covid-present: NSW, Vic
High vaccination rates - covid present, but covid-zero seeking: ACT
High vaccination rates - covid-zero, covid-zero seeking: Tas
Low vaccination rates - covid-zero, covid-zero seeking: Qld, WA, NT
Low vaccination rates - covid-zero, but notionally not covid-zero seeking at 80%: SA

 

[dairyfloss]

While I think NSW will probably hit the 80% mark tomorrow it's interesting how quickly the ratio between first and second has changed, first has dropped rapidly but second rising rapidly.

I think it makes good sense, IMHO. The rush on first shots of whatever brand people could get into them between 3 and 11 weeks ago in NSW will now turn into a rush on second shots, pushing the double-dosed number up at an even faster rate than we have been seeing already. I don’t think it’s enough to bring the 70% double rate in by enough to open up NSW on the 11th Oct, but it may come close. The 18th Oct is surely a safe bet at the very worst.

I’d also expect that there’s another flurry of first doses over the coming month or two in 16+, as the virtually unlimited supply of mRNA shots is put into the network, and awakens the pro-VAX but anti-AZ cohort into effect.

Cheers,
Matt.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think it makes good sense, IMHO. The rush on first shots of whatever brand people could get into them between 3 and 11 weeks ago in NSW will now turn into a rush on second shots, pushing the double-dosed number up at an even faster rate than we have been seeing already. I don’t think it’s enough to bring the 70% double rate in by enough to open up NSW on the 11th Oct, but it may come close. The 18th Oct is surely a safe bet at the very worst.

I’d also expect that there’s another flurry of first doses over the coming month or two in 16+, as the virtually unlimited supply of mRNA shots is put into the network, and awakens the pro-VAX but anti-AZ cohort into effect.

Cheers,
Matt.

ABC and covidlive are already 'predicting' 10/11 October using the current 7-day second dose rate. We are still in the middle of the month, so reaching 70% double dose before 4 October for fully vaccinated relaxations in NSW by 4 October is in play.

 

[dairyfloss]

ABC and covidlive are already 'predicting' 10/11 October using the current 7-day second dose rate. We are still in the middle of the month, so reaching 70% double dose before 4 October for fully vaccinated relaxations in NSW by 4 October is in play.

COVID live has NSW hitting it on the 12th, so still an 18th Oct opening on that basis, but I’d LOVE to see it come in a week (or two) sooner. It really is possible I think. I’d just have to change the bookings I had in for the pubs and restaurants starting nightly from the 18th is all!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

COVID live has NSW hitting it on the 12th, so still an 18th Oct opening on that basis, but I’d LOVE to see it come in a week (or two) sooner. It really is possible I think. I’d just have to change the bookings I had in for the pubs and restaurants starting nightly from the 18th is all!

Small matter - and I'm probably wrong - but I translated covidlive's 28 days plus 13/9 (given the numbers reported on 14/9 are of the activites on the day before) as 11/10.

 

[dairyfloss]

Small matter - and I'm probably wrong - but I translated covidlive's 28 days plus 13/9 (given the numbers reported on 14/9 are of the activites on the day before) as 11/10.

I guess it is probably the 11th, but reported on the 12th? I’m just looking at this in another window at the moment:


I wonder which would determine it for the following Monday? They date they hit it, or the date they report it. Theoretically they could report it and be opening up on the same day, if they use prior and it was a Sunday that it happened

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

In possible world movement relevant to Australia's vaccination rollout, UK has announced boosters shots (at least 6 months after the second shot) for the following categories:
- residential aged care residents
- frontline healthcare and social care workers
- adults 50+
- adults 16-49 that have underlying health conditions that put them at a higher risk of sever COVID
- adult household contacts of immunosuppressed individuals

Preferred booster: Pfizer. Alternative booster: Moderna

In UK, booster appears to be a choice and at present is not planned to affect official fully vaccinated status

Also UK have started their 12-15 vaccination rollout (which was announced yesterday I believe)

These steps are also part of the preparation for Autumn/Winter.

 

[jakeseven7]

More to add to the list:

St Vincent’s are mandating vaccines for all staff.

Vic Racing is mandating vaccines for all staff.

 

[Batterytraveller]

Queensland enabling choice stoking hesitancy and undermining a perfectly good vaccine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1437933525227819012

 

[Must...Fly!]

I wish I could swear on this forum because it's the only way I can accurately reflect my emotion and anger at the decisions of the WA and QLD governments.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I know its unpopular but i really think if there is any 60+ people who are waiting for a choice then they should just be given it, I dont think its a massive number and people who are in an 'at risk' age group should be placed ahead of people who are statistically far LESS at risk

 

[dairyfloss]

Gladys fronting the presser again today. Nightly curfews will be lifted in NSW from tonight. 80% first dose confirmed (but clearly was going to happen today). Here's the numbers, as well:

 

[mviy]

Queensland enabling choice stoking hesitancy and undermining a perfectly good vaccine.

It's unfortunate. They are probably about a month give or take a bit ahead of VIC and NSW in opening up Pfizer to that age group.

In my view this shows not only hesitancy in older age groups taking AZ in QLD and WA, but also not enough younger people coming forward to use up the supply either. If they had long waiting lists for young people to get Pfizer surely they wouldn't feel the need to open it up to the over 60s yet.

 

[Seat0B]

ABC and covidlive are already 'predicting' 10/11 October using the current 7-day second dose rate. We are still in the middle of the month, so reaching 70% double dose before 4 October for fully vaccinated relaxations in NSW by 4 October is in play.

And if this happens, or even 11 Oct, I cannot see the people of the ACT being willing to continue with our Chief Minister's COVID zero dream. Well, I hope not anyway. I'm back to feeling frustrated and despondent again.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

And if this happens, or even 11 Oct, I cannot see the people of the ACT being willing to continue with our Chief Minister's COVID zero dream. Well, I hope not anyway. I'm back to feeling frustrated and despondent again.

The way facebook reads during the press conferences I see 'the people' who live with us here in ACT being happily compliant and holding up the bowl with "please Sir can I have some more lockdown" until 110% vaccination rate coverage is reached. Perhaps the ground will shift in a month but i'd be surprised.

 

[mviy]

Covidlive and ABC are predicting VIC will be last to 80% fully vaccinated, but that's probably because the focus in VIC is on getting as many as possible their first dose, so the 2nd dose rate isn't as good as it otherwise would be. At least I hope that's the case.

VIC needs to get a move on with those first doses to get to 80%+ ASAP and then make moves to bring the time between Pfizer doses back down towards 3 weeks at state hubs to speed up second doses.

 

[jrfsp]

SA and the NT both announced Pfizer for all age groups before both QLD and WA....

 

[Seat0B]

I know its unpopular but i really think if there is any 60+ people who are waiting for a choice then they should just be given it, I dont think its a massive number and people who are in an 'at risk' age group should be placed ahead of people who are statistically far LESS at risk

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I tend to agree with you. I'm in that age group, and have had AZ, with second shot next week. So to be totally clear, I am not one of those people hanging out for Pfizer.

But the real point we should consider in making this decisions is the outcome that we are trying to achieve by vaccinating.
1. Is it to get people in a risky age group vaccinated to reduce the impact on hospitals by stopping them from getting seriously ill with COVID? 2. Is it to get as many people as possible vaccinated so we reach the 70/80% target as soon as possible?
3. Is it to punish people for having concerns about a vaccine, or feeling resentful about lack of choice, with the result that many of them hold out?

If it is 1 - then let the over 60s choose Pfizer if that's what they want.
If it is 2 - then it doesn't really matter what age the person is, a vaccinated person is a vaccinated person and adds to the target. In fact, it's better for target purposes to have the vaccine recipient be over 16, given that is the age group that is counted in the target. So let the over 60s choose Pfizer if they want, certainly before 12-15s.
If it is 3 - well keep doing what we are currently doing, it is being very effective in keeping a bunch of over 60s unvaccinated. s/It's totally worth showing them who is the boss here, because after all, medical treatment of unvaccinated people who are more likely to get sicker from COVID doesn't really cost anything (not money, not health care staff stress, not unintended consequences for other illnesses when the ICU beds are taken up) does it now? s/

 

[Pushka]

SA and the NT both announced Pfizer for all age groups before both QLD and WA....

We have a large number of 60 something entitleds here in SA. But the end goal more likely to be reached now. So a good thing. However our SA CHO never trashed AZ like the Qld one did. But suspect that persons message was heard louder than ours anyway.

 

[Seat0B]

The way facebook reads during the press conferences I see 'the people' who live with us here in ACT being happily compliant and holding up the bowl with "please Sir can I have some more lockdown" until 110% vaccination rate coverage is reached. Perhaps the ground will shift in a month but i'd be surprised.

Sadly, I fear you are right. The people interviewed on ABC News last night were of that persuasion. However, a few of my friends and acquaintances have said privately that they disagree (could be I'm in an echo chamber).

As I said, my civil disobedience New Year's resolution looks like being brought forward. And as I posted with a news item elsewhere, many businesses (staff and customers alike) were already getting slack about masks and QR compliance. I think another 4 weeks will just about do it.