The way out of lockdowns etc in Australia

[MEL_Traveller]

Is this some sort of hot desking arrangement? I thought that was going to be something of the past - at least until there's a vaccine or something. If it is hotdesking, the issue would be around cleaning... monitors, phones, mouse, keypads, chair, desk surfaces... everything.

 

[Flashback]

Is this some sort of hot desking arrangement? I thought that was going to be something of the past - at least until there's a vaccine or something. If it is hotdesking, the issue would be around cleaning... monitors, phones, mouse, keypads, chair, desk surfaces... everything.

Not hot desking, but trying to manage flow of people etc. in the office.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Is this some sort of hot desking arrangement? I thought that was going to be something of the past - at least until there's a vaccine or something. If it is hotdesking, the issue would be around cleaning... monitors, phones, mouse, keypads, chair, desk surfaces... everything.

Well if an office wants to share a desk by having for example a rotation of the workforce different teams coming in on alternating days or weeks I could envisage:

• Just a desk and chair being provided that is shared, and cleaned between uses
• Each worker having their own laptop and handset (and/or mobile) that they bring in and take home with them.
  • This also allows the worker to work at home (or elsewhere)

The trend to paper free offices to be accelerated.

 

[Flashback]

So what I'm looking at, is an office that has named desks for everyone; but looking at how you track who will be in, will there be enough SD etc.

It sounds like something doesn't exist for doing that out of the box, so maybe I'll develop and app that can be sold to do that......

 

[OZDUCK]

It has just been announced that W.A. will massively relax lockdown restrictions from Saturday 6 June. The vast majority of business will be able to re-open including beauticians, gyms, cinemas and theatres. The 20 person limit will be increased to 100 and up to 300 in premise with separate large areas. The 4 square metres per person rule will be relaxed to 2 square metres. Casino specific rules are still being discussed. All playgrounds, skateparks etc will re-open and full contact sport will resume.

One in four metre square rule set to be scrapped in WA next weekend

West Australians can gather in groups of up to 100 people from June 6 as the state moves to phase three of relaxing coronavirus restrictions, with the "vast majority" of businesses affected by the lockdown permitted to reopen.

www.abc.net.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It has just been announced that W.A. will massively relax lockdown restrictions from Saturday 6 June. The vast majority of business will be able to re-open including beauticians, gyms, cinemas and theatres. The 20 person limit will be increased to 100 and up to 300 in premise with separate large areas. The 4 square metres per person rule will be relaxed to 2 square metres. Casino specific rules are still being discussed. All playgrounds, skateparks etc will re-open and full contact sport will resume.

One in four metre square rule set to be scrapped in WA next weekend

West Australians can gather in groups of up to 100 people from June 6 as the state moves to phase three of relaxing coronavirus restrictions, with the "vast majority" of businesses affected by the lockdown permitted to reopen.

www.abc.net.au

The interesting one is the 2m2 rule as that effectively means removing physical distancing to a pretty minimal level. Physical distancing has arguably been the main tool to halt spread.

This to me means that the WA Government basically believes that Covid 19 has been eliminated from WA. The caution here is that WA also has had a low testing rate.

 

[OZDUCK]

The interesting one is the 2m2 rule as that effectively means removing physical distancing to a pretty minimal level. Physical distancing has arguably been the main tool to halt spread.

This to this means that the WA Government basically believes that Covid 19 has been eliminated from WA. The caution here is that WA also has had a low testing rate.

I am very far from an expert in this area but I would guess that the factors that have played into this decision are :-

Around 85% of all cases here have had an overseas point of infection compared to a national average of around 62%

All current known active cases are overseas acquired infections - either returning Australians in Quarantine or the sheep ship crewmen.

Only around 4% of local cases have not had the infection point established compared to national average of around 10%

There has been no local transmission identified for around a month

As far as I can remember all W.A deaths have been persons who became infected on a cruise ship

That being said, W.A is currently trying to put a bit of a spurt on in regards to testing non symptomatic people

 

[jakeseven7]

The interesting one is the 2m2 rule as that effectively means removing physical distancing to a pretty minimal level. Physical distancing has arguably been the main tool to halt spread.

This to this means that the WA Government basically believes that Covid 19 has been eliminated from WA. The caution here is that WA also has had a low testing rate.

Surely no state government actually believes they have eliminated the virus.... I guess that is your inference but Ihighly doubt they actually think that.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Surely no state government actually believes they have eliminated the virus.... I guess that is your inference but Ihighly doubt they actually think that.

But yet they are going to allow 2m2 per person.

Yes it is clearly my inference. But if you are going to allow close proximity of people for extended time it to me means that you must have great confidence that Covid19 cannot be transmitted. And at that range the only way I would be confident would be by knowing that everyone near me does not have Covid 19.

Remember too that if you are going to allow masses of people with each occupying 2m2, that in practice that will not always occur and so some people will be even closer.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I am very far from an expert in this area but I would guess that the factors that have played into this decision are :-

Around 85% of all cases here have had an overseas point of infection compared to a national average of around 62%

All current known active cases are overseas acquired infections - either returning Australians in Quarantine or the sheep ship crewmen.

Only around 4% of local cases have not had the infection point established compared to national average of around 10%

There has been no local transmission identified for around a month

As far as I can remember all W.A deaths have been persons who became infected on a cruise ship

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that they are wrong to do so and nor that they do not have grounds to do so. It is just my reading between the lines that to adopt that particular measure that you would need to believe that the odds of transmission must be extremely low.

That being said, W.A is currently trying to put a bit of a spurt on in regards to testing non symptomatic people

Which would be good to do.

Certainly when Victoria started their blitz they started to pick up both more symptomatic ans well as asymptomatic cases. Apart from making it so that anyone one with even the most minor symptom could get tested they also started wide testing of particular entire groups. Again don't get me wrong Victoria had higher levels than WA, but with the blitz they have found more cases even though that is after excluding returning travellers at a very small %. Without the blitz many of those cases would most likely not have been found as quickly, if at all.

South Korea which was held up as model to emulate has just today announced that they are yet again going to re-tighten restrictions after having eased them, then tightened them, and then eased them and now tightening them again after a new cluster, this time in the distribution centre of a mail order company in the Seoul suburb of Bucheon.

South Korea ups restrictions again after significant rise in infections

After a significant rise in coronavirus infections, South Korea is tightening restrictions in Seoul and its...

www.9news.com.au

So to me for example if you are going to allow large gatherings, 2m2 spacing and say drinking without meals (so patrons are going to not be that could at the new 2m2 spacing) then you are going to have to very confident that it will not lead to the south Korea Nightlub/Bar spike in WA and that to me means that the government must be extremely confident that there is virtually no one with Covid 19 in WA for if there is 2m2 will allow it to spread, and possibly rapidly.

 

[OZDUCK]

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that they are wrong to do so and nor that they do not have grounds to do so. It is just my reading between the lines that to adopt that particular measure that you would need to believe that the odds of transmission must be extremely low.



Which would be good to do.

Certainly when Victoria started their blitz they started to pick up both more symptomatic ans well as asymptomatic cases. Apart from making it so that anyone one with even the most minor symptom could get tested they also started wide testing of particular entire groups. Again don't get me wrong Victoria had higher levels than WA, but with the blitz they have found more cases even though that is after excluding returning travellers at a very small %. Without the blitz many of those cases would most likely not have been found as quickly, if at all.

South Korea which was held up as model to emulate has just today announced that they are yet again going to re-tighten restrictions after having eased them, then tightened them, and then eased them and now tightening them again after a new cluster, this time in the distribution centre of a mail order company in the Seoul suburb of Bucheon.

South Korea ups restrictions again after significant rise in infections

After a significant rise in coronavirus infections, South Korea is tightening restrictions in Seoul and its...

www.9news.com.au

So to me for example if you are going to allow large gatherings, 2m2 spacing and say drinking without meals (so patrons are going to not be that could at the new 2m2 spacing) then you are going to have to very confident that it will not lead to the south Korea Nightlub/Bar spike in WA and that to me means that the government must be extremely confident that there is virtually no one with Covid 19 in WA for if there is 2m2 will allow it to spread, and possibly rapidly.

Again just my uninformed opinion but they seem to be taking comfort that after the earlier easing of restrictions no new cases were reported. The last 2 local cases were as a result of contact with a person in Quarantine. I think it is several months since there were any infections that could not be directly traced to a known infected person. There is still a week to go before the new measures come into effect so it is possible, if unpopular, that they could be delayed if any spikes occur before then. It has always been made clear that if any large spikes do occur then stricter measures would be re-introduced.

There certainly could be problems but I hope not. With luck and good management we may end up like the NT. Of course if there is bad luck and poor management we could end up like South Korea.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Again just my uninformed opinion

As is mine

 

[drron]

The South Kore lockdown now as before is around a cluster not the whole nation.This should be the way to treat further outbreaks.

 

[Gremlin]

There certainly could be problems but I hope not. With luck and good management we may end up like the NT. Of course if there is bad luck and poor management we could end up like South Korea.

I think it's a long bow to draw to state that South Korea is managing this poorly.

Their stated strategy is to test, test, test, isolate, isolate, isolate and close down targeted parts of their country to manage outbreaks, whilst keeping as much of the economy open for as long a stretch as possible. This involves sawtoothing some businesses. Open, closed, open, closed as breakouts dictate, either small scale if it can be sufficiently controlled or larger scale if that's what's required. That seems to me to be exactly the strategy that (at least parts of ) Australia wants to emulate. In fact, we're already seeing it here - schools opening, then specific schools closing for short periods when cases are found.

So if the disease is still within the community, despite current low numbers, and outbreaks are not only possible, but expected, then what South Korea is doing is exactly what Australia will be hoping to do unless you can eradicate. As ScoMo has said on numerous occasions, eradication is not the goal for us.

 

[oz_mark]

The interesting one is the 2m2 rule as that effectively means removing physical distancing to a pretty minimal level. Physical distancing has arguably been the main tool to halt spread.

This to me means that the WA Government basically believes that Covid 19 has been eliminated from WA. The caution here is that WA also has had a low testing rate.

I think it is more that they believe than can manage anything that pops up. They expended testing last week allowing a lot of customer facing staff to get tested regardless of symptoms.

The Premier says the WA approach is 'aggressive suppression'.

 

[jakeseven7]

But yet they are going to allow 2m2 per person.

Yes it is clearly my inference. But if you are going to allow close proximity of people for extended time it to me means that you must have great confidence that Covid19 cannot be transmitted. And at that range the only way I would be confident would be by knowing that everyone near me does not have Covid 19.

Remember too that if you are going to allow masses of people with each occupying 2m2, that in practice that will not always occur and so some people will be even closer.

I just doubt any person with an IQ over 100 (so hopefully our government!!) thinks elimination is possible pre-vaccine. What happens when WA opens their borders?

Anyway who really cares at least they are starting up their economy sans any tourists or business travel

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think it is more that they believe than can manage anything that pops up.

Yes but the rate at which spread can occur if you allow close proximity is dramatically more. ie South Korea nightclub/bar area.
Close proximity means that if someone is indeed contagious that they are much more likely to pass it on. Have many people with close proximity and the transmission rate can really get highly very quickly.

If they also believe that they could indeed so easily manage massive hotspots, why is the border not being opened? Though yes I do understand that they may be going to stage things.

It still seems to me that bringing back close proximity so quickly is more a sign that they believe that they will be living without the virus, rather than with it.


Unless WA has some new measure, 'aggressive suppression' is I assume just what all health authorities in Australia are already doing which is contact tracing (including CovidSafe) and testing of all identified combined with free testing of anyone with symptoms. It may include more community testing, but at present WA has had very low testing rate. So if community testing was going to be core to 'aggressive suppression' would it not need to be done first?

 

[VPS]

Just chatting to a friend in NZ - they had to start a tracking app before they went into a cafe.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just chatting to a friend in NZ - they had to start a tracking app before they went into a cafe.

Yes the NZ App is quite different to the Australian one, and people need to check in to businesses/places that they visit.. The app needs to be installed and on to check in which means scanning the QR code.


How NZ COVID Tracer works
Use NZ COVID Tracer to check in to places you visit by scanning the official Ministry of Health QR codes.

NZ COVID Tracer app

 

[Gremlin]

I just doubt any person with an IQ over 100 (so hopefully our government!!) thinks elimination is possible pre-vaccine. What happens when WA opens their borders?

Anyway who really cares at least they are starting up their economy sans any tourists or business travel

On the contrary, I think a lot of people believe that localised elimination is possible and, in fact, achievable. One of the ways to preserve this is to keep borders closed. I read what's been announced in WA and it doesn't make me think "what happens when WA opens their borders?" It makes me think if WA will open their borders in the foreseeable future.

Allowing pubs, cafes and restaurants to conform to a 2sqm rule instead of a 4sqm rule means that many, many more will be economically viable and their businesses will be saved. But as @lovetravellingoz points out, that suggests that they believe they will be living without the virus, rather than with it. That's inconsistent with opening up travel to areas with known community transmission.

I expect people much smarter than me in WA have done the cost-benefit analysis of those two scenarios. So far everything seems to me to be internally consistent with a scenario that keeps the WA state borders closed for longer.