Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[oz_mark]

Whether if the rumour is true or not that's probably going to open a can of worms with the IASC considering the original application did not allow for wet-leases (assumably in the medium term - as there has been some temporary short term wet lease precedents in the past lasting 2 months at most for QF and AN) and it stated it was supposed to be operated on VA's own aircraft.

In July, Virgin have the IASC a confidential submission about how it was going to operate the flight. It is possible that submission covered this off.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I would assume it did. It's quite literally the only way in the short (possibly even medium) term they are going to be able to use that slot.

However what it does mean if true as a wet lease for now, is that VA is presumably gearing up internally for a future widebody acquisition.

 

[randompunter]

A VA flight attendant told me last week she'd heard a rumour they were going to use 787s but she didn't really know anything. She was excited though and said she missed working the LAX runs.

 

[Saab34]

787-9 is really the only option rumour or not.

However Boeing has delays on that production line at the moment they certainly wouldn’t be getting them anytime soon if they wanted new. Does not seem to be many 787-9s parked up either around the world.

 

[Sprucegoose]

It seems to be a routine management challenge; however, I do look forward to flying the route. I haven't been to JPN for a few years now, I need my Nippon fix.

 

[pauly7]

Whether if the rumour is true or not that's probably going to open a can of worms with the IASC considering the original application did not allow for wet-leases (assumably in the medium term - as there has been some temporary short term wet lease precedents in the past lasting 2 months at most for QF and AN) and it stated it was supposed to be operated on VA's own aircraft.

Margins will be absolutely wafer thin if they plan do this so (if true)… so if true they are desperate beyond comprehension to stop another airline from getting the slot / have longer term ambitions to operate it in a different way.

 

[pmdg7444]

VA has also gone on recruitment drives lately to hire Japanese and korean speakers....

 

[Bagpuss]

Whether if the rumour is true or not that's probably going to open a can of worms with the IASC considering the original application did not allow for wet-leases (assumably in the medium term - as there has been some temporary short term wet lease precedents in the past lasting 2 months at most for QF and AN) and it stated it was supposed to be operated on VA's own aircraft.

But I assume they could dry lease an ANA aircraft and use VA crew.
(Pretty sure keeping it in ANA livery is an option.)

 

[SYD]

But I assume they could dry lease an ANA aircraft and use VA crew.
(Pretty sure keeping it in ANA livery is an option.)

In theory they presumably could dry lease from a bunch of airlines but don’t they need to go through the necessary hoops and jumps to be certified to operate under VA2? That takes time.

 

[dk4]

VA has also gone on recruitment drives lately to hire Japanese and korean speakers....

I had a Japanese CM on a flight this week, so I asked her... She said she couldn't say much, but was allowed to say that Virgin would be "hopping" to HND. So, possibly that means Japan will become Virgin's Kangaroo Route? haha

 

[Mattg]

I had a Japanese CM on a flight this week, so I asked her... She said she couldn't say much, but was allowed to say that Virgin would be "hopping" to HND. So, possibly that means Japan will become Virgin's Kangaroo Route? haha

BNE-CNS-HND or BNE-GUM-HND, perhaps?

 

[HS-TQE]

I wonder what the timeline of VA's MAX deliveries would be?

I would think VA would prefer to at least have 1 or 2 of the MAX-8s on regular domestic runs in February/Early March before sending them on BNE-CNS-HND.

It's unlikely VA would route it as BNE-GUM-HND as they won't have fifth freedom rights on the GUM-HND leg.
At least with BNE-CNS-HND, the BNE-CNS leg could carry domestic passengers, possibly even pick up pax those connecting from VA's Long Haul Int'l partners of AC/UA/SQ/etc to/from CNS without a terminal change in BNE and they can clear immigration in CNS instead of BNE.

 

[Mattg]

It's unlikely VA would route it as BNE-GUM-HND as they won't have fifth freedom rights on the GUM-HND leg.

Out of interest, why is this?

 

[madrooster]

Out of interest, why is this?

It's not impossible, just that VA would need to apply to both Japan and the US to obtain fifth freedom rights.

 

[Sprucegoose]

It's not impossible, just that VA would need to apply to both Japan and the US to obtain fifth freedom rights.

Some bedtime reading..........

https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/111820.pdf

 

[pangwen]

Some bedtime reading..........

https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/111820.pdf

My brief reading of that one is that it just relates to the rights of Japanese and US carriers? (Although I do admit IANAL and may have missed some nuance of the wording).

My quick google suggests that the treaties on this page might be more relevant, particularly the linked treaty with Japan, in that it specifically mentions AU-Guam-Tokyo. However, this is just the AU/JP agreement, will need to find the relevant provision in the AU/US agreement:

http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/dfat/treaties/ATS/1956/6.html

Routes to be operated in both directions by the designated airline of Australia:
1. Points in Australia - Biak or a point in Indonesia - a point in British North Borneo - Manila - Hong Kong - Tokyo.
2. Points in Australia - Guam - Tokyo.
The agreed services provided by the designated airline of Australia on these routes shall begin at a point in the territory of Australia, but other points on any of the routes may at the option of the designated airline be omitted on any or all flights.

EDIT: For the AU/US agreement, I think the relevant sentence is this one:

Routes for the airline or airlines designated by the Government of Australia:

1. From points behind Australia via Australia and intermediate points to a point or points in the United States and beyond.

Now, there is still the nuance of whether VA has been 'designated' for the purposes of the above two bilaterals, and if not, how long it would take to get that designation. I haven't found a definitive source for that yet, but my armchair reading is that VA would have already been designated by the AU govt under the US and JP bilaterals as these agreements also cover their ability to do non-stop flights (and VA would have needed to get the required approval/designation to launch non-stop AU-LAX and AU-HND back in the day).

Having said the above (and despite my desire to see 'strange' routes like these pop up!), I think VA launching BNE-GUM-HND is still a stretch, but more because it may not be a competitive route. For example, this report from BITRE states that

Limited competition from third country carriers:- the limited extent of fifth freedom traffic on the Japan-Australia aviation route tended to reinforce capacity limits and reduce downward pressure on prices. Where carriers introduced stopovers between Australia and Japan, their ability to compete for additional market share and influence prices was limited because stopovers are not attractive to Japanese business and time-sensitive holiday travellers, given the short duration of annual leave

 

[henrus]

Is March 2023 still the required time frame to use it or lose it?

If so March 2023 is not that far away for if they indeed plan to launch flights to HND.

 

[twinaisle]

I had a Japanese CM on a flight this week, so I asked her... She said she couldn't say much, but was allowed to say that Virgin would be "hopping" to HND. So, possibly that means Japan will become Virgin's Kangaroo Route? haha

She didn't say much because we know f all

 

[Scarlett]

From GCMAP, these all seem like options but I’d suggest BNE-CNS-HND is the only realistic solution, unless VA can carry the appropriate xth-freedom pax. May also relate to how UA and NH are prepared to cooperate.

Whatever happens, not sure I really want to fly any of those routes in a 737.


BNE-GUM. 2489nm
GUM-HND. 1348nm



BNE-DPS. 2424nm
DPS-HND. 2993nm



BNE-CNS. 749nm
CNS-HND. 3152nm


What we really need is the VA version of the island hopper. Just needs a little coord with UA and Nauru and bobs your uncle.
I’d do it. (once at least…)

 

[jrfsp]

CNS-HND would be a blood bath for VA, JQ would undercut them and the JQ787 is a nicer product for that flight