Ukraine International Airlines PS752 crashes in Iran [confirmed shot down]

[Quickstatus]

They’ve indicated they aren’t going to hand them to the USA. Have they also ruled out handing them to the Ukraine, Canada, or EU facilities that can read black boxes? I can understand not wanting to hand to the USA.

The Ethiopians didn’t hand theirs over to the NTSB either. Maybe the Iranians will give it to the French

(So far so good - no mention of the other colour box)

 

[drron]

As you can imagine Twitter is all of a twit over this.but in amongst the idiots some interesting comments and pics.
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Circled are what are being described as projectile holes.Some are saying that it looks just like MH 17 but just as many saying it looks like QF 32.
However these pics where part of the first news stories coming out of Iran but have now been removed from most.Also reported there was no Mayday call.
On the other hand Reuters is saying unnamed sources from Western Security agencies say this was a technical malfunction.

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

af.reuters.com

To add to all the speculation a pro Russian website released the Russian version of the MH 17 incident yesterday not long after this incident.Russia does support Iran and probably not mind hurting Ukraine.It relies on an Ukranian whistleblower who fled to Russia.Laughable.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

My guess is we may never know the whole truth.

 

[Berlin]

My guess is we may never know the whole truth.

That's my fear exactly.

I can literally hear the trailer for the corresponding Mayday episode: "An aircraft tragedy that will remain buried under a shroud of mystery forever ever ever..."

 

[jb747]

Circled are what are being described as projectile holes.Some are saying that it looks just like MH 17 but just as many saying it looks like QF 32.

There is no doubt that a compressor disc coming apart, and going through the fuselage would be pretty devastating.

https://reports.aviation-safety.net/2006/20060602-0_B762_N330AA.pdf

Dramatic GE engine explosion on Boeing 767 poses puzzle for investigators

The “uncontained failure” that last month sent an engine disk ripping through an American Airlines jet with nearly catastrophic results is the first case of that specific part failing. It has spurred a hunt for microscopic cracks in similar disks,...

www.seattletimes.com

Pictures: GE investigates cause of American Airlines Boeing 767-200 uncontained CF6-80A engine failure that led to aircraft fire

General Electric is investigating the cause of an apparent uncontained engine failure which caused extensive damage to an American Airlines Boeing 767-200 at Los Angeles on Friday.

www.flightglobal.com

But I'm not convinced that would give anything like the shrapnel spread being seen here. QF32 did not have holes all over it.

I don't know enough about this to even have any idea of whether the holes we see are real or fake, or if they could be produced by an aircraft breaking up. I doubt that anybody outside of the area actually knows.

I find it hard to believe though, that a SAM could be fired so near to Tehran, without anybody noticing. I know that information is controlled, but it does have a tendency to get out.

However these pics where part of the first news stories coming out of Iran but have now been removed from most.Also reported there was no Mayday call.

As I've said innumerable times, the presence, or lack, of a mayday call means nothing.

On the other hand Reuters is saying unnamed sources from Western Security agencies say this was a technical malfunction.

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

af.reuters.com

Wow, think how much they could have saved the various safety agencies over the years. I suspect what this actually means, is that they have no knowledge of hostile action or intent. Which again, at this stage, means nothing.

 

[Quickstatus]

63 Canadians onboard. Must be a tour group?

Not necessarily. I speculate they could also be Iranian-Canadian dual nationals and or Iranian students returning to Canada after the holiday period

 

[Pushka]

Not necessarily. I speculate they could also be Iranian-Canadian dual nationals and or Iranian students returning to Canada after the holiday period

Yes. It’s a bit blurred these days.

 

[Quickstatus]

Yes. It’s a bit blurred these days.

Totally these days anyone who is residing legally in a country (but not a citizen) is considered to be the same as a citizen for these purposes

 

[Pushka]

Totally these days anyone who is residing legally in a country (but not a citizen) is considered to be the same as a citizen for these purposes

On a visa not so much. And they are residing legally.

 

[drron]

Yes. It’s a bit blurred these days.

They have published a list of passengers.It suggests most were originally of Iranian origin.

Ukraine International (UIA) Plane Crashes In Tehran

Ukraine International flight PS752 crashed soon after take-off from Tehran International airport in Iran early Wednesday morning killing all passengers and crew members.

loyaltylobby.com

A Canadian couple on the plane had gone back to Iran to be married.

 

[Quickstatus]

If you ask, some would prefer “Persian”

 

[Melburnian1]

The Ethiopians didn’t hand theirs over to the NTSB either. Maybe the Iranians will give it to the French

(So far so good - no mention of the other colour box)

Given that this is a safety (not as such a political issue), why the reluctance to hand such items over given that detailed expert analysis may well prevent or minimise the chance of a recurrence?

 

[Berlin]

Given that this is a safety (not as such a political issue), why the reluctance to hand such items over given that detailed expert analysis may well prevent or minimise the chance of a recurrence?

Because a.) having just exchanged missiles with that country turns anything into a political issue, b.) other countries might be able to offer a equally detailed expert analysis and c.) one might want to keep control over the process, just in case the results of such analysis don't suit us?

 

[Quickstatus]

MH17 had a lot more 'shrapnel holes' than these photos

 

[JinbaIttai]

MH17 had a lot more 'shrapnel holes' than these photos

And some of these "shrapnel holes" don't appear to be holes at all when viewed from another angle

View attachment 202797.

 

[jb747]

There’s a hi-res image of this piece of debris. Some of the holes appear to be shadows from rubble/rocks.

 

[Must...Fly!]

NTSB have been invited to Iran.

During the night from Jan 8th to Jan 9th 2020 somebody on Twitter released a photo of a Tor 9K331 warhead presumably found at the crash site (and temporarily even the reader comments below flooded over referencing that photo). The location as well as the authenticity of the photo were not verifyable. The Aviation Herald therefore sent an inquiry to Iran's AIB with the photo, the supposed location at the crash site and relevant links in support and contradicting the authenticity of that photo and asked, whether the accident investigation had found such a part (expressing the hope that these issues wouldn't add too much to the stresses of the AIB).

Iran's AIB Chairman Hassan Rezaeifar responded stating: "We save evidence and wreckage of the aircraft and never found this part. All wreckage parts were transferred to the special hanger in order to investigate with cooperation of NTSB, Ukraine NBAI and other interest parties which has been invited officially." Mr. Rezaeifar continued: "Due to special political condition of my country, we instituted a special group more than technical accident investigation groups to assess the condition of Laser attack or dangerous good- electromagnetic (radioactive threat) and unlawful action. The initial conclusion of this group confirmed that there was not found any evidence of mentioned actions on the accident site. Also we will trace all other evidences of the accident by gathering all information of the accident." The chairman indicated the AIB plans to release a preliminary first report in English during Jan 9th 2020.

The Aviation Herald

Aviation Herald - News, Incidents and Accidents in Aviation

www.avherald.com

 

[Must...Fly!]

Two unnamed US officials have claimed it is "highly likely" that Iran shot down the airliner...

 

[Berlin]

Two unnamed US officials have claimed it is "highly likely" that Iran shot down the airliner...

That US assumption is all over the media right now. While the Iranians still claim it was a mechanical error (without going into more detail).

Let’s not kid ourselves- this is now highly political, especially given how those two parties are constantly at the brink of war. But even on a more basic level- did the plane go down due to “mechanical errors”, it looks bad for Boeing and par extension the US. If Iranians make a mistake and accidentally shot it down, it looks (VERY) bad for Iran.

And with both sides not exactly known for their love of truth and nothing but factual truth, it’s anyone’s guess who to believe here.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Indeed correct in every way, @Berlin

PM Trudeau has now joined the narrative that there is evidence an Iranian surface to air missile was responsible for the crash.

 

[flyer89]

There is some pretty solid video from different perspectives out there now which show a missile hitting the aircraft. Following this on social media and other non mainstream sources has been very interesting with the reality presenting itself much quicker.