US election 2020

[DC3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1294386744469655553

 

[DC3]

Under 74 days to go. Still counting down:

2020 US Presidential Election

Counting time since 3 Nov 2020. Showing days, hours, minutes and seconds counting up

www.timeanddate.com

 

[p--and--t]

She did the moment she agreed to be the running mate of a geriatric racist whom she had previously condemned for racism in front of millions of people at the primary debates.

That is so funny, there is only three years difference between them and only one of them is showing cognitive impairment. Trump has multiple court rulings and penalties against him for racist behaviour in his business.

 

[p--and--t]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1295720245508878336

 

[DC3]

If someone is saying “If we lose the election, it means it was rigged”.

What he’s telling everyone is, “The only way I can win this election is by cheating.”

 

[mel-world]

Meanwhile, the polls are tied in Minnesota and big movement to Trump in the left-leaning CNN polls. Mainstream Americans aren't a fan of the Democratic Party attempting to extort their way into office on the back of the BLM terrorist movement turning American cities into imitations of Mogadishu.

I'd much prefer looking at an overall poll average than a single poll that can be quoted selectively. Try this instead (fivethirtyeight.com) to see the true position nationwide and state by state. It's still 74 days to go so the polls will tighten, especially if Trump has a spectacular Convention next week, but the overall polls have been consistent now for a number of months.

 

[DC3]

I'd much prefer looking at an overall poll average than a single poll that can be quoted selectively .... the overall polls have been consistent now for a number of months.

Yes. Good point. I find it rather amusing how some pluck their data.

 

[drron]

I'd much prefer looking at an overall poll average than a single poll that can be quoted selectively. Try this instead (fivethirtyeight.com) to see the true position nationwide and state by state. It's still 74 days to go so the polls will tighten, especially if Trump has a spectacular Convention next week, but the overall polls have been consistent now for a number of months.

Though in 2016 fivethirtyeight consistently had Hiliary leading right up to polling day.
The problem with the averaging of polls is that the vote is not uniform across states.The Democrats have very large leads in major states-NY,CA and IL.those don't translate into more electoral college votes.
So the best polls are the individual State polls.But then there is the problem of non compulsory voting so the candidate that can get their supporters to vote is the better chance.

Further complicating matters is if a third party candidate stands.The Greens usually do these days which can take votes from the Democrats.Kanye just might take votes from Trump.

 

[p--and--t]

But then there is the problem of non compulsory voting so the candidate that can get their supporters to vote is the better chance.

Spot On, only 55% of the population voted in 2016. Less than those who voted in 2008 when Obama won the first time.

However, despite Hillary actually getting more of the popular vote in 2016 (~3M more) still didn't win!

Kind of a strange election system where an electoral college doesn't have to take into consideration the actual democratic vote.

 

[NoName]

Though in 2016 fivethirtyeight consistently had Hiliary leading right up to polling day.
The problem with the averaging of polls is that the vote is not uniform across states.The Democrats have very large leads in major states-NY,CA and IL.those don't translate into more electoral college votes.
So the best polls are the individual State polls.But then there is the problem of non compulsory voting so the candidate that can get their supporters to vote is the better chance.

Further complicating matters is if a third party candidate stands.The Greens usually do these days which can take votes from the Democrats.Kanye just might take votes from Trump.

As far as I’m aware Fivethirtyeight don’t do their own polling. They analyse various other polls, including the Minnesota poll presumably sighted a few posts earlier which comically gets a lower grading than the “left biased CNN polls” derided in the same post.

Polls Policy And FAQs

At FiveThirtyEight, we strive to accumulate and analyze polling data in a way that is honest, informed, comprehensive and accurate. While we do occasionally com…

fivethirtyeight.com

In any event, the 2016 polling was not wrong at a national level. Final results came in within the margin of error. The problem as you say is that national polling isn’t entirely relevant, state polling more important. There were also several differences in 2016 such as fluctuations in the margin in the months leading up to Election Day (Biden’s margin has been larger and much more stable) as well a much higher number of undecided voters who ended up breaking heavily for Trump in key states.

A long way to go yet!

 

[dajop]

Kind of a strange election system where an electoral college doesn't have to take into consideration the actual democratic vote.

I know another country where the party who didn't win the majority of the national two party preferred vote can go on to win government and it's leader becomes the Prime Minister:

In 1998, the Kim Beazley led ALP, won 200,000 more of two party preferred vote (which is a similar portion of the Australian population at the time as 3 million is to the US population) , yet John Howard and the coalition formed government :

1998 Australian federal election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Same thing in 1990, albeit with a much smaller margin, where Peacock/coalition beat the incumbent Hawke government by 20,000 on a two party preferred basis, but Hawke formed government. Also happened in 1940, 1954, 1961 and 1969 where the party with lower proportion of national two party preferred vote was able to form government.
Parliament of Australia - Wikipedia

Every electoral system has its quirks, in the same way that in Australia, commentators focus on the polling in marginal electorates, in the US presidential elections the focus is on the swing states.

 

[p--and--t]

I know another country where the party who didn't win the majority of the national two party preferred vote can go on to win government and it's leader becomes the Prime Minister:

In 1998, the Kim Beazley led ALP, won 200,000 more of two party preferred vote (which is a similar portion of the Australian population at the time as 3 million is to the US population) , yet John Howard and the coalition formed government :

1998 Australian federal election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Same thing in 1990, albeit with a much smaller margin, where Peacock/coalition beat the incumbent Hawke government by 20,000 on a two party preferred basis, but Hawke formed government. Also happened in 1940, 1954, 1961 and 1969 where the party with lower proportion of national two party preferred vote was able to form government.
Parliament of Australia - Wikipedia

Every electoral system has its quirks, in the same way that in Australia, commentators focus on the polling in marginal electorates, in the US presidential elections the focus is on the swing states.

Ah yes, gerrymandering of seats for sure. Some states at their level had it down to a tee, not as bad now but still could be better.

 

[dajop]

Ah yes, gerrymandering of seats for sure. Some states at their level had it down to a tee, not as bad now but still could be better.

Not necessarily, for example in the 1998 election, IIRC it was a result of very deliberate coalition strategy with policy/messaging focussed on marginal electorates, whereas ALP shored up support in its own natural constituency. Not dissimilar to the US 2016 presidential election. It happens when one side strategically outwits the other (eg in 2016 Hilary didn't target swing states as much as DJT and really shot herself in the foot with the deplorables comment).

 

[DC3]

I wonder how our Trump supporters feel about him setting the bar so incredibly low for Biden.

 

[Isochronous]

Rasmussen has constantly recorded strong approval ratings for Trump because they focus on likely voters as opposed to being skewed by polling registered voters. See the latest: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Look at these ferals stealing a MAGA hat from a little kid - speaks volumes about the calibre of leftist activists. Heartbreaking Video Captures Little Boy's Cries as Women Steal His Trump Hat, Taunt Him

 

[get me outta here]

I am beginning to see the problem it is the ‘reading material’ that causes such rude and simplistic comments on stories for the impressionable to swallow whole.

Look at these ferals stealing a MAGA hat from a little kid - speaks volumes about the calibre of leftist activists. Heartbreaking Video Captures Little Boy's Cries as Women Steal His Trump Hat, Taunt Him

 

[RooFlyer]

Another trend is for throw-away put-downs implying others are less intelligent.

 

[get me outta here]

Yes, not only throw-away lines, but rude and insulting with it.

Another trend is for throw-away put-downs implying others are less intelligent.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Yet again he puts his reelection ahead of lives

Donald Trump accuses FDA 'deep state' of slowing COVID-19 vaccine trials

US President Donald Trump accuses America's Food and Drug Administration of purposefully delaying coronavirus vaccine trials until after the November presidential election, a statement House Speaker Pelosi says is "dangerous and "scary".

www.abc.net.au

 

[cove]

Most of the business folks we deal with in the US will still vote for Trump. He cut their taxes.......