VA Cancellations, Delays growing?

[Scarlett]

Update.
Arrive PER 2350 and wait 30 minutes for all bags to be delivered onto carousel to find two of our bags not delivered. Go to baggage services and there’s a sheet of paper noting one of the bags was KNOWN not to be on the flight. Two key issues here:
- bag (my golf clubs) weren’t loaded onto the first aircraft in CBR, so they’ve had 12 HOURS to notify me, but didn’t.
- the staff at PER knew my bag (and at least one other persons, based on the paperwork on the desk) wasn’t being delivered but didn’t announce anything. No verbal announcement to come to baggage services, or even a notice on the belt.

VA doesn’t care someone may wait 30 minutes at baggage reclaim to find out their bag isn’t arriving when they already know this info. That is a complete absence of service.

(at least one bag has hopefully already arrived in PER this morning based on their plan, but of course no info sent to me - don’t know status of the other but AirTag had it still in CBR last night)

 

[MooTime]

Table 1: Total Industry On Time Performance for November 2023​

Reporting Airlines	Sectors Scheduled	Arrivals On Time %	Departures On Time %	Cancellations %
Bonza	552	73.9	73.3	4.2
Jetstar	6,716	67.8	66.7	2.7
Qantas - all QF designated services	19,968	66.3	68.1	3.3
Rex Airlines	5,765	70.5	74.1	0.9
Skytrans	322	69.4	68.7	4.7
Virgin Australia - all VA designated services	12,034	54.3	57.0	6.2
All Airlines	45,357	64.1	65.9	3.7

Arrivals info no big deal as 15 min counts as late, do they / could they give a mean or average time delay per airline?

Pretty damning the VA 6.2% QF 3.3% figure and coughstar just 2.7%.

What's the long term figure that we expect or a pass mark airline cancellation rate.

Is QF 3.3% about the norm?

 

[Saab34]

Serious questions would need to be asked on the IPO roadshow re these numbers, I’d also hope Bain is asking questions to the management running this outfit? (Ie - do they have any idea what they are doing?)

The December numbers are not going to be much better.

They are going to go public with the business in its poorest form in the history of it.

 

[Bagpuss]

Serious questions would need to be asked on the IPO roadshow re these numbers, I’d also hope Bain is asking questions to the management running this outfit? (Ie - do they have any idea what they are doing?)

The December numbers are not going to be much better.

They are going to go public with the business in its poorest form in the history of it.

Bain are probably doing bi-weekly checks at best, and most likely monthly and review board content etc.

So many years down the track, pretty much hands off and left to the management team. After all that's why company's have a management team.

Also, you are assuming they are going to to public. I seriously doubt it. According to most on AFF the IPO would have completed at least 6 months ago. I reckon they are looking at second half of FY25

 

[kamchatsky]

I posted this 2 weeks ago, and the news of strike action has made me even more nervous about my upcoming flight to BNE on Boxing Day. I have been conservative with my bookings but even I am unsure if I can get to BNE in time. I cannot believe the current state of VA as I used to fly with them a lot pre-covid and like their services. Is this what the domestic airline industry has come to? Constant cancellations and massive delays?

Well, it is the festive season, and I am so blessed. QF opened up 4 * J awards for QF127 SYD-HKG on Boxing Day a couple of days ago (actually, there were 8 * J awards available when I booked it!). I took them immediately. Looking at ExpertFlyer, it looks like it is a refurbished bird, fingers crossed.

I have since cancelled my Boxing Day VA flight and CX J BNE-HKG award on 27/12, departing just after midnight.

Whilst I think CX J is better than QF J, at least QF is direct, and I don't have to worry about the potential chaos of VA delays/cancellations on 26 December. Also, we will get to HKG earlier as well which is great.

I have to pay cancellation costs (VA Choice Fare + QF Classic Award on CX), but I feel I have dodged a Russian Roulette situation. Now I will have to work out how to spend the money in VA Travel Bank sometime down the track.

It is a shame that VA's reliability has gone down so much, it meant I am almost better off flying Jetstar.

 

[Saab34]

Also, you are assuming they are going to to public. I seriously doubt it. According to most on AFF the IPO would have completed at least 6 months ago. I reckon they are looking at second half of FY25

Bridging loan is due May 2025 that needs to be paid from the IPO. Needs to be floated by then, and I am sure Bain wants out by then also.

This half will get it listed by May/June 2024, H2 would have it November/Dec 2024.

H2 is generally weaker as seen with the previous profit result, so really needs to be a H1 audit for a roadshow

H1 FY25 is possible, just a bit tight getting it listed by the loan due date, if something goes wrong. Would probably be better numbers wise, but everything needs to line up.

This is the half to be audited for any listing if they wanted one, they haven’t done a great job with this half. The most disengaged employee morale in this half.

We still have Pilots to deal with in regards to an agreement also.

 

[MooTime]

Well, it is the festive season, and I am so blessed. QF opened up 4 * J awards for QF127 SYD-HKG on Boxing Day a couple of days ago (actually, there were 8 * J awards available when I booked it!). I took them immediately. Looking at ExpertFlyer, it looks like it is a refurbished bird, fingers crossed.

I have since cancelled my Boxing Day VA flight and CX J BNE-HKG award on 27/12, departing just after midnight.

Whilst I think CX J is better than QF J, at least QF is direct, and I don't have to worry about the potential chaos of VA delays/cancellations on 26 December. Also, we will get to HKG earlier as well which is great.

I have to pay cancellation costs (VA Choice Fare + QF Classic Award on CX), but I feel I have dodged a Russian Roulette situation. Now I will have to work out how to spend the money in VA Travel Bank sometime down the track.

It is a shame that VA's reliability has gone down so much, it meant I am almost better off flying Jetstar.

Great result for you finding those J awards.

Let's not fall into an abyss here, VA just 6% cancellations, whilst QF half that, but with more than double the flights than VA so total cancellations would be lot more on pure numbers with QF.

I'm sure you'll manage to spend the travel credits, you think you may never for VA again?
No sweat.

 

[bcworld]

Let's not fall into an abyss here, VA just 6% cancellations, whilst QF half that, but with more than double the flights than VA so total cancellations would be lot more on pure numbers with QF.

LOL...there's a reason they invented percentages!

 

[straitman]

Let's not fall into an abyss here, VA just 6% cancellations, whilst QF half that, but with more than double the flights than VA so total cancellations would be lot more on pure numbers with QF.

Actual numbers:

VA group cancellations 749
QF group cancellations 651
or
VA specific 738
VA regional 11
QF specific 256
QF link 395

A very bad month for VA.

 

[Saab34]

Virgin Management have been super quiet also, have not heard a work from JH, nobody seems to be doing any interviews and it’s all very hush hush.

They must have a good PR department, as they seem to stay out of all bad press. Media don’t go hunting them either

 

[jakeseven7]

Virgin Management have been super quiet also, have not heard a work from JH, nobody seems to be doing any interviews and it’s all very hush hush.

They must have a good PR department, as they seem to stay out of all bad press. Media don’t go hunting them either

They were on ABC today blaming cabin crew and pilot shortages (Shortages been driven as we all know in good part by bad management of their frontline workforce!)

 

[straitman]

Arrivals info no big deal as 15 min counts as late, do they / could they give a mean or average time delay per airline?

Is QF 3.3% about the norm?

+/- 15 min is what's used for arrivals and departures across the board.

July cancellations
VA 5.6%
QF 3.8%

August cancellations
VA 4.9%
QF 4.0%

September cancellations
VA 3.9%
QF 3.2%

October cancellations
VA 4.1%
QF 3.9%

November cancellations
VA 6.2%
QF 3.3%

 

[MooTime]

+/- 15 min is what's used for arrivals and departures across the board.

July cancellations
VA 5.6%
QF 3.8%

August cancellations
VA 4.9%
QF 4.0%

September cancellations
VA 3.9%
QF 3.2%

October cancellations
VA 4.1%
QF 3.9%

November cancellations
VA 6.2%
QF 3.3%

QF doing rather if not very well at 3.3% cancel rate.

VA wasn't going too bad until Nov & no doubt Dec.

 

[straitman]

QF doing rather if not very well at 3.3% cancel rate.

VA wasn't going too bad until Nov & no doubt Dec.

The other thing that needs to be considered is the operating entities.
eg in Oct the figures are swapped around if you only consider the mainline and take out VA regional and QF link.
they are:
VA 4.1% cancellations
QF 4.3% cancellations

 

[justinbrett]

Interesting VARA is actually improving VA’s stats (VA mainline is 6.3%)

QF and QLK both on 3.3%. Usually it’s the regional subsidiaries dragging the respective groups down.

 

[Saab34]

They were on ABC today blaming cabin crew and pilot shortages (Shortages been driven as we all know in good part by bad management of their frontline workforce!)

Well they can’t keep blaming the weather or air traffic control. Which they have been doing for the last 6 months.

Something needs to be done with Melbourne to Sydney however. To be cancelling 1 in 10, is just depriving new entrants like Bonza who would come in and open new routes, boost tourism. Stupid waste of slots just due to VA’s pure incompetence.

 

[TiredOldFlyer]

Interesting delay on VA 504 this morning, initially caused by early departure resulting in orbit Sydney, so I guess not rely a delay, but then two missed approaches causing "go rounds" with a successful landing on the third attempt. Not much info as to why apart from a comment over the PA re an instrument indication of a fire in the flap mechanism.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Well they can’t keep blaming the weather or air traffic control. Which they have been doing for the last 6 months.

Something needs to be done with Melbourne to Sydney however. To be cancelling 1 in 10, is just depriving new entrants like Bonza who would come in and open new routes, boost tourism. Stupid waste of slots just due to VA’s pure incompetence.

Agree. Week in, week out it gets a bit boring. ATC, weather, crew shortage, or - worst excuse of all - ‘late inbound’ (no planes can’t arrive late by themselves, someone or something caused them to be late). And when you are late or cancelled, poor communication and poor service recovery.

If you can’t run a schedule, shave it back.

I am cancelling already ticketed flights on VA because i’m just after reliability.

 

[straitman]

I am cancelling already ticketed flights on VA because i’m just after reliability.

… you are going to fly with?

Most months the percentages are very similar.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

… you are going to fly with?

Most months the percentages are very similar.

Rex.

On SYD-MEL they’re leaving on time on the days I am flying… saving me up to two hours each week waiting for VA.

As I mentioned earlier, VA had zero’d out its MEL-SYD flights yesterday and today. Possibly to provide capacity if they had to cancel flights, but in the absence of communication from the airline that this is what they were doing… the real risk was one cancellation and not making it to SYD/MEL in time for Christmas.

No such problems on Rex.