Virgin 787s?

[Lucass]

Will virgin australia dry-lease some 787s from qatar eventually? They could get some of their ageing 787-8s and use them for los angeles/asia flights. They could also use them on mel/syd/bne to perth flights to better compete with Qantas.

 

[Lucass]

I think you've been scammed by the marketers who have made you think that VA is a fresh/cool new airline who provides a full service on wonderful aircraft. When in reality they are basically a domestic LCC.

Ok so say you are the CEO of virgin. What routes would you think are good for VA international???

 

[justinbrett]

Ok so say you are the CEO of virgin. What routes would you think are good for VA international???

Loop back to post 24.

 

[Lucass]

Yeah, the more I learn in this forum I think VA has no chnaces hhahh

Loop back to post 24.

I doubt the SFO will ever happen. They already codeshare with United so I think we can rule out SFO

 

[justinbrett]

I doubt the SFO will ever happen. They already codeshare with United so I think we can rule out SFO

That wasn’t post 24.

Post in thread 'Virgin 787s?'
Virgin 787s?

 

[flyingfan]

IMHO many of us want to and wish VA would succeed, even if only to keep QF honest and prices not too extortionate. But history (and lots of discussion on identical or similar topics on AFF!) suggests overextension and ambition will only lead to disaster. VA had international and wide body services before and that didn’t go well at all - I myself don’t want them, or anyone else, to make the same mistakes and burn more money.

 

[ben95]

In all hypothetical I think VA, under Bain, would only consider getting wide bodies if they were forced at gunpoint to do so. The ACCC / FIRB approvals may very well include condition that they transition to dry lease at some point.

That presents an interesting dilemma - do they lease the 777-300er from QR which is the right capacity for Doha flight or do they get the 787 which is smaller, more economical and actually usable in a domestic/regional network when the aircraft sits idle between long haul flights?

 

[Simon Overall]

Ok so say you are the CEO of virgin. What routes would you think are good for VA international???

The ones they currently have.

 

[justinbrett]

In all hypothetical I think VA, under Bain, would only consider getting wide bodies if they were forced at gunpoint to do so. The ACCC / FIRB approvals may very well include condition that they transition to dry lease at some point.

That presents an interesting dilemma - do they lease the 777-300er from QR which is the right capacity for Doha flight or do they get the 787 which is smaller, more economical and actually usable in a domestic/regional network when the aircraft sits idle between long haul flights?

Bold prediction, if VA were to get their own widebodies they wouldn’t put them on the DOH routes, they’d cede that to QR (like QF did to DXB for EK).

VA isn’t going to be able to compete with QR even on a JV. They’ll make a success of the wet lease flights as they are effectively just reselling QR flights. A fully VA branded service would be similar to their previous route to AUH which wasn’t successful. Maybe they could do SYD-SIN/BKK-LGW or even SYD-PER-LGW. But I think their route network will be more similar to Ansett and focus on Asia / Pacific.

 

[ben95]

if VA were to get their own widebodies they wouldn’t put them on the DOH routes

I was thinking they would get widebodies (from QR) so they can continue the JV with VA crew which still gives QR more flights into Australia if the ACCC puts in a condition as the unions suggested. I suspect QR will just charge VA exorbitant lease price so they still make good money as if it's their own flights.

VA isn’t going to be able to compete with QR even on a JV. They’ll make a success of the wet lease flights as they are effectively just reselling QR flights.

They could still do that with dry-lease because revenue are shared and pricing are coordinated so there is still no competition. So for QR they really don't care whether its sold a VA flight or they sold a QR flight vice versa.

 

[justinbrett]

I was thinking they would get widebodies (from QR) so they can continue the JV with VA crew which still gives QR more flights into Australia if the ACCC puts in a condition as the unions suggested. I suspect QR will just charge VA exorbitant lease price so they still make good money as if it's their own flights.


They could still do that with dry-lease because revenue are shared and pricing are coordinated so there is still no competition. So for QR they really don't care whether its sold a VA flight or they sold a QR flight vice versa.

Not really “their own widebodies” though. I mean if they went out and acquired their own VA branded aircraft like VA1.

What you’re proposing is just a further extension of the wet lease arrangement with some cooking of the books to make it worthwhile to QR. Why would VA go along with this? May as well continue to wet lease. More risk with no financial gain.

I expect QR will get more capacity in their own right. The main thing restricting capacity was lack of Australian carriers. Once QF and VA started flying to DXB & AUH that ASA became effectively open skies (and still is). If this does happen that might make for an awkward end to the wet lease arrangement.

 

[DC3]

What type of destinations in the mainland do you think?

Wot, no Tassie?

 

[HS-TQE]

I was thinking they would get widebodies (from QR) so they can continue the JV with VA crew which still gives QR more flights into Australia if the ACCC puts in a condition as the unions suggested. I suspect QR will just charge VA exorbitant lease price so they still make good money as if it's their own flights.

Apart from the pending "QR/VA" JV through the wet-lease arrangement that would last 5 years at most. VA through Bain has largely been staying out of JVs and keeping mostly to bilateral (and some unilateral) codeshare and FF partnerships, considering the mixed outcomes they had out of previous JVs such as EY, DL and NZ.

When VA 1.0 was allegedly accused by former CEO NZ Luxon for not "pulling their weight" on the old NZ/VA JV and allegedly still lost money on NZ services under the JV, then I can understand why JH said they are very cautious not to repeat the same mistakes that SQ/EY/HU/et al did when they controlled VA 1.0

 

[elanshin]

I think the other thing when you're considering expanding VA internationally is that in a vaccuum some of the routes might work.

But we're not operating in a world with VA only. There's no situation where VA will try to launch a route without the competitors trying to shut it down. Either you need an exclusivity or you need to get a competitive edge or very deep pockets. There isn't a world where QF group wouldn't try to muscle their way with JQ price war (or even QF mainline if it's threatening enough). SIN routes might see SQ react and VA getting on the bad side of SQ is an unmitigated disaster for the VFF program.

So there's realistically very few destinations (mostly South East Asia without direct links like maybe PER - HAN) that could even work.

 

[Lucass]

I think the other thing when you're considering expanding VA internationally is that in a vaccuum some of the routes might work.

But we're not operating in a world with VA only. There's no situation where VA will try to launch a route without the competitors trying to shut it down. Either you need an exclusivity or you need to get a competitive edge or very deep pockets. There isn't a world where QF group wouldn't try to muscle their way with JQ price war (or even QF mainline if it's threatening enough). SIN routes might see SQ react and VA getting on the bad side of SQ is an unmitigated disaster for the VFF program.

So there's realistically very few destinations (mostly South East Asia without direct links like maybe PER - HAN) that could even work.

They could try unserved routes like you suggest, Adelaide to Tokyo & Hong Kong, canberra to Singapore & Hong Kong, cairns to Hong Kong etc, which don’t have much if not no competition. I think if they try codeshare with their partners, ANA, Singapore, AirNZ etc, on routes they don’t already serve, they could succeed and beat out JQ/QF

 

[Simon Overall]

They could try unserved routes like you suggest, Adelaide to Tokyo & Hong Kong, canberra to Singapore & Hong Kong, cairns to Hong Kong etc, which don’t have much if not no competition. I think if they try codeshare with their partners, ANA, Singapore, AirNZ etc, on routes they don’t already serve, they could succeed and beat out JQ/QF

Cathay has flights Cairns to Hong Kong with flatbed.

 

[justinbrett]

They could try unserved routes like you suggest, Adelaide to Tokyo & Hong Kong, canberra to Singapore & Hong Kong, cairns to Hong Kong etc, which don’t have much if not no competition. I think if they try codeshare with their partners, ANA, Singapore, AirNZ etc, on routes they don’t already serve, they could succeed and beat out JQ/QF

They’re gonna beat QF by flying out of ADL & CBR? Surely you jest.

 

[Lucass]

They’re gonna beat QF by flying out of ADL & CBR? Surely you jest.

They can capture the market of those cities easily with direct services and they can also have the flights connect from sydney/melbourne if they wanted to

Post automatically merged: Sunday at 7:37 PM

Cathay has flights Cairns to Hong Kong with flatbed.

Sorry, yes you are correct but most of the routes I listed are unserved

 

[TheInsider]

They can capture the market of those cities easily with direct services and they can also have the flights connect from sydney/melbourne if they wanted to

Post automatically merged: Sunday at 7:37 PM

There is no market

 

[p--and--t]

Wot, no Tassie?

They don't fly to the east islands even with 737s by choice, if the figures don't add up there is always the potential they might decide no longer fly to the southern ex prison colony (certainly not in 787s)

 

[Lucass]

There is no market

Yes there is. Cathy operated Adelaide to Hong Kong pre-Covid, Singapore airlines also operated Singapore-canberra, so yes there is a market for many of these routes. Adelaide airport is also eying flights to Tokyo and canberra wants flights to Hong Kong and maybe Vietnam within next 5 years. Qatar has identified a market to doha from Canberra, so yes VA has options and customers to secure