Virgin Australia Financially Secure? [Now in Voluntary Administration]

[jakeseven7]

'The Transport Workers Union national secretary Michael Kaine said on Tuesday there was still a serious risk that Australia could lose its second airline because Virgin's bidders did not know when it can ramp-up its limited flying due to state and federal pandemic travel restrictions. '

Exactly as we said a few days ago. Even the unions are calling out the haphazard border restrictions are hurting the possibility of VA2 being born.

 

[Carrots]

Jostling and positioning by Virgin bidders is getting really interesting. Cyrus reportedly blowing the full-service trumpet, but domestic fleet pared back to B737s

Good to see that being said, although one assumes that would be pretty much the standard playbook option for most wanting to maintain a full service offering.


Has anyone ever been able to take a close look at the financial numbers to determine where exactly they've been bleeding money? And then doing the comparisons to see how solid the business actually could have been without the apparent over inflated costs (ie high lease rates, poor deals etc)? Would be interesting to run the eye over it.

 

[jakeseven7]

Has anyone ever been able to take a close look at the financial numbers to determine where exactly they've been bleeding money? And then doing the comparisons to see how solid the business actually could have been without the apparent over inflated costs (ie high lease rates, poor deals etc)? Would be interesting to run the eye over it.

Let me log into the data room and get back to you

Joking aside - apparently from the sources leaking everything to the AFR there have been terrible deals struck all over the place from leasing aircraft, to wifi right down to catering. Says alot about current VA1 senior management and their competency.

There was also a comment about frontline staff being paid too much to deliver a service which I'm sure the unions will be worried about!

 

[p--and--t]

Jostling and positioning by Virgin bidders is getting really interesting. Cyrus reportedly blowing the full-service trumpet, but domestic fleet pared back to B737s

Virgin bidder Cyrus plans to keep airline as full-service Qantas competitor

The Richard Branson-linked investment fund has said it wants to maintain Virgin Australia as a full-service international airline if it wins the race for the collapsed carrier.

www.smh.com.au

Interesting position the ACCC is in.

Their job is primarily to foster active competition in an attempt to drive prices down for the consumer which by its very nature means one company will cut fares to increase market share, thereby forcing another to cut to maintain market share.

Prior Covid-19 when we were hitting peaks in volume of travel, advertised $1 fares (for a return sector) during certain seasons were not uncommon. Price disparities just in Y between say Mel-CNS ranged from >$300 to $39 and this was hailed as a good thing for everyone and actively encouraged.

Now Qantas has said they might need to offer some $19 fares for say Mel-Syd to drive volumes much faster than otherwise due to depressed demand and make flights viable but would only do it if it was revenue positive. The ACCC now is seriously concerned?

The ACCC now seem to be focused on prices being held up higher than it is profitable for the airline to operate them and focusing on reducing competition to help a competitor.

The devil's advocate in me poses, if VA in over a decade never made a profit trying to emulate a full service carrier, why should Aussies be forced to pay more in airfares across the board so the new backers can try to do the same again?

Indeed, in the current cut throat arena of aviation does AU have a market large enough to support two full service carriers, particularly in the depressed market arena for 2020-2022.

 

[jakeseven7]

Indeed, in the current cut throat arena of aviation does AU have a market large enough to support two full service carriers, particularly in the depressed market arena for 2020-2022.

I guess it depends how big the full service carries are.

What if VA2 is stripped back to just 737's (as many bidders have suggested) and returns all leased 737's as well for example?

What if in parallel QF parks 20 planes.

Suddenly maybe there is room for 2 full service carriers....

 

[p--and--t]

I guess it depends how big the full service carries are.

What if VA2 is stripped back to just 737's (as many bidders have suggested) and returns all leased 737's as well for example?

What if in parallel QF parks 20 planes.

Suddenly maybe there is room for 2 full service carriers....

I would pose the new owners of VA in a competitive market need to do what they need to do to compete. Not pose a grand plan to be something that is not profitable or viable unless they force a competitor not to compete.

 

[HS-TQE]

Interesting that Cyprus wants to keep the owned 777s at the most. The 77Ws likely be 'mothballed' under a Cyrpus ownership as long-haul international travel will likely continue to be depressed until early-mid 2021 at the earliest.

 

[woodborer]

Interesting that Cyprus wants to keep the owned 777s at the most. The 77Ws likely be 'mothballed' under a Cyrpus ownership as long-haul international travel will likely continue to be depressed until early-mid 2021 at the earliest.

Good opportunity to get out of the unfavourable A330 leases.

 

[jakeseven7]

Anyway, back ON topic.

Two more days until we move to TWO shortlisted bidders. Any bets?

I am picking:

- Bain
- Indigo

Any other thoughts?

 

[BNEFlyer]

Anyway, back ON topic.

Two more days until we move to TWO shortlisted bidders. Any bets?

I am picking:

- Bain
- Indigo

Any other thoughts?

Cyrus and Bain.

 

[Notyourbag]

Cyrus and Bain.

BGH and Bain

 

[hydrabyss]

Cyrus for sure as we need Branson to be part of it to give jakeseven7 something to complain about.

 

[jakeseven7]

Cyrus for sure as we need Branson to be part of it to give jakeseven7 something to complain about.

LMAO! I’ve resigned myself to that weasel worming in with whoever is successful

 

[p--and--t]

Cyrus for sure as we need Branson to be part of it to give jakeseven7 something to complain about.

LMAO! I’ve resigned myself to that weasel worming in with whoever is successful

I'm sure there are some that are missing the overt sexism, pretty faces and semi naked women that seem to feature in his media stunts.

 

[kyle]

I think I'm in the minority in liking RB. He just has this fun vibe in his business dealings.

 

[travel_bug]

Interesting with Bain seeming like a strong contender at the moment, this pot shot of an article from the AFR was published today

Virgin Australia bidder Bain's Aussie record a bit patchy after school

Bain is brandishing its Aussie credentials to win over Virgin Australia staff. But its Camp Australia business has a pretty wild rap sheet.

www.afr.com

(I know the rear window column is meant to be like a business gossip column, but still interesting that they chose to focus on only of of the three in this way)

 

[oz_mark]

I'll go with BGH and Cyrus

I am pretty sure Cyrus will be there, and Indigo will not.

Between BGH and Bain, more of a coin toss, but I'll go with BGH.

 

[melb78]

I wonder what BGH has put on the the table im betting BGH and Cyrus

 

[aaronm]

Even in administration the incompetence shines, VA have canceled the SYD-LAX leg of an upcoming trip leaving me with MEL-SYD, LAX-BNE-MEL. No communication either, only noticed when I logged into my account. Fools.

 

[travel_bug]

I wonder what BGH has put on the the table im betting BGH and Cyrus

My understanding is that BGH's approach is to capitalise on it being an Australian equity firm with the whole "Team Australia" rhetoric that's out there at the moment. It's an approach that makes sense considering an effect of Covid has been Australians coming together and wanting to support Australian businesses (and workers), and would also be handy ammunition considering the public backlash VAMkI received with its foreign owners when they first started asking for money.