Virgin Australia Financially Secure? [Now in Voluntary Administration]

[travelbee26]

That's a nice juxtaposition to the Stephen Bartholomeusz hate piece in the Fairfax papers 2 days prior:

Government shouldn't rescue airlines or super funds from their own ineptitude

The Morrison government is right to ignore the bailout pleas from Virgin Australia and some industry superannuation funds. Poorly managed private companies have only themselves to blame.

www.theage.com.au

'Everything is as it was; and everything has changed'

 

[cove]

SQ are trying to raise almost $20 billion to keep running. VA want about $2 billion and QF will need about $5 billion. Yes it could be a real mess if the airlines don’t get back running normally by July.
if it goes to January next year most of the airlines will be in some form of bankruptcy.

 

[33kft]

SQ are trying to raise almost $20 billion to keep running.

They've secured $14bn in guarantees from Temasek across 2 tranches of offerings, and given their entire 2019 year expenses under full operational load were ~$15bn you would think they are pretty secure, assuming no large debt obligations or other liabilities coming due. It is a big number though, it should give pause to consider what SQ's prospects would be if there wasn't a sovereign wealth fund with an almost 60% investment there to prop them up.

 

[travelbee26]

SQ are trying to raise almost $20 billion to keep running. VA want about $2 billion and QF will need about $5 billion. Yes it could be a real mess if the airlines don’t get back running normally by July.
if it goes to January next year most of the airlines will be in some form of bankruptcy.

I think if CV19 can be suppressed in Australia in the coming month, as the government is hoping, then we can all start flying internally by end of June as the threat would have been extinguished. I believe the government is saying that "this" could go on for 6 months is just being cautious with the rest of the world. Who knows

 

[jase05]

SQ will always be one of the safest global carriers, likewise KF.

I suspect KF will hike redemption rates tho.

Think I might book some long haul pointy end long hauls for late year NOW!

When do you realistically see International flights going ahead?
Do you think by the end of the year we will see the major routes back at least

 

[33kft]

I think if CV19 can be suppressed in Australia in the coming month

We haven't even seen the peak of infection rates yet, let alone reached the trough.

 

[Fortheloveofflying]

I sincerely hope that VA comes through this in some shape or form. If the government does indeed bail them out, I hope they get VA to clean out their entire management. They have a lot of bad eggs who are still making atrocious decisions.

 

[ozstamps]

When do you realistically see International flights going ahead?

Do you think by the end of the year we will see the major routes back at least

None of us has crystal balls, or else we would all be buying airline shares at the low point I am sure!

PERSONALLY I think the whole COVID thing has been miles overblown. Still way less than 10% of fatalities to any normal Flu year deaths, that we barely ever notice. (2019 saw 650,000 Flu deaths - WHO figures) Anyway that is for another Forum, and many disagree. C'est la vie.

Mid year would not surprise me for most flight curtains to be lifted (USA oddly will be last as they dithered way too long as Trump was saying only weeks back it was all over there) and I will sure book some latter year flights with pretty high confidence things will be looking 75% normal.

But my guess is just that, as good as anyones - lets all hope sooner rather than later.

There will be lots of deck chairs shuffled tho. Virgin, if they survive at all, will be more Tiger style than Virgin, and these grand mega buck loser ego follies like Haneda (and HK before it) will all be history. No frills trump route domestic they might just get away with.

 

[amaroo]

When do you realistically see International flights going ahead?
Do you think by the end of the year we will see the major routes back at least

IMHO no chance. Think about all the other countries that will still be fighting this thing, eg, 2/3 of global population, international travel could well be affected for 2/3 years.

 

[N860CR]

PERSONALLY I think the whole COVID thing has been miles overblown. Still way less than 10% of fatalities to any normal Flu year deaths, that we barely ever notice. (2019 saw 650,000 Flu deaths - WHO figures) Anyway that is for another Forum, and many disagree. C'est la vie.

I agree. It’s really insane. Ignore Spain and Italy who have some major hygiene issues at the best of time and an aged and unhealthy population, plus the US which is third world at best (despite what they’d want you to think) and nobody is suffering too badly. Before this, Italy was on its way to a horrifically bad flu season anyway...

But the governments have gone from 0 to 100, they’ve enacted laws that would never have passed otherwise (which NSW in particular will be loving) so who knows where this ends.

 

[MH_fan]

My gut feeling is that travel and flights in Europe and across Asia will be back to at least 50% of normal by July. We in Australia snd NZ could potentially be in that boat too if we adhere to all the social distancing and isolation measures. The only 2 places that won't meet that and will continue to struggle containing COVID-19 is the USA and maybe the African continent. And for the US, if they don't get on top of it by Oct (when their weather starts cooling), they'll continue having problems until April/May the following year.

 

[hydrabyss]

Until there is a vaccine or way to test instantly with 100% accuracy my guess is you will get a 14 day hotel stay on your return to Australia.

 

[drron]

Possibly by the end of the year the safest countries to travel to might be Italy,Spain,UK and USA.
Why?Because they will have all had massive numbers of Covid infections there will be a lot less who will be infectious at any point in time.
Whereas those that have successfully flattened the curve will have large numbers of potentially acute infections so more likely to be exposed to the virus.
Best case scenario for any individual-have a mild case of Covid and get over it.

 

[Obi-run Kenobi]

Until there is a vaccine or way to test instantly with 100% accuracy my guess is you will get a 14 day hotel stay on your return to Australia.

I agree. I think Australia will get a handle on the spread of the virus within a few months and domestic flights will begin to ramp up again by October.

But that won't ease our international border restrictions by much. And when international travel does begin to flow again I would expect some form of 'quarantine' will be enforced until a vaccine can be rolled out.

My guess is mid 2021 before we start to see any freedom of travel that we were used to.

 

[hydrabyss]

I agree. I think Australia will get a handle on the spread of the virus within a few months and domestic flights will begin to two up again by October.

But that won't ease our international border restrictions by much. And when international travel does begin to flow again I would expect some form of 'quarantine' will be enforced until a vaccine can be rolled out.

My guess is mid 2021 before we start to see any freedom of travel that we were used to.

I found this quote from Chief Minister Andrew Barr

“There is no prospect in the short term for there to be any domestic tourism industry in Australia and in the longer term it is unlikely that we will see borders unlocked any time soon in relation to international tourism,” Mr Barr said.

 

[brettd]

Until there is a vaccine or way to test instantly with 100% accuracy my guess is you will get a 14 day hotel stay on your return to Australia.

Also agree, the economic cost of the current shutdowns well outweighs the hit to tourism. If people genuinely need to travel for business or family reasons (the only international travel I see happening this year) they will have a 2 week quarantine on return to Aus.

As for Virgin, the govt has said they want two airlines to survive, but they've backpedalled on a lot of things lately...

 

[straitman]

Back to the topic please folks.

(A few posts have been moved)

 

[pauly7]

So, back on topic - Any thought on whether Sir RB will inject some of his personal fortune to assist, take a larger stake?

 

[ozstamps]

So, back on topic - Any thought on whether Sir RB will inject some of his personal fortune to assist, take a larger stake?

He has agreed not to charge VA the HIGH royalty to use the name Virgin for this year. True.

He was to launch his first "Adults Only" CRUISE LINER on April 1 .. I kid you not, what timing - not his best business year!

He too has the begging bowl out to Boris, so will not be investing anywhere methinks.

Glen

 

[andrewpf]

So, back on topic - Any thought on whether Sir RB will inject some of his personal fortune to assist, take a larger stake?

I suspect his #1 concern right now is ensuring the survival of Virgin Atlantic (which I think Virgin Group still have majority ownership in, and which he has called 'one of his children').