What is Virgin Australia's strategy (post-administration)?

[dajop]

Here we are in late June and I will quote a post I made in January.

Is it just me, or has this thread just evolved into a fortnightly repetition of the same comments?

 

[RooFlyer]

If this is serious, and who knows if it is, they're suggesting that it was possible to pivot to float an airline within 6 months in the space of 2-3 business days on the basis of a fast food company listing? Wild if true

It would be pretty normal to have the float "ready to go" in the background, with the major work being done some time ago (have worked in the space) - a partial float, in reality. That's what advisers are paid (lots) for - the models (several scenarios) would be updated regularly and instos kept schmoozed.

As for the rationale attributed to GyG - that sounds pretty dodgy; maybe more about 'market sentiment' . The best proxy for appetite for VA stock is of course Qantas, and I am surprised to see that their recovery from the bottom last year has stalled a bit.



If there is no apparent local prompt for the partial divestiture by Bain, it might be exogenous - a foreign cornerstone investor indicating that they are ready to go.

 

[HS-TQE]

Meanwhile REX has been having big issues with their share prices recently, thus the recent management changes and increased PAG board appointments. (See attached pic below).

 

[antycbr]

It would be pretty normal to have the float "ready to go" in the background, with the major work being done some time ago (have worked in the space) - a partial float, in reality. That's what advisers are paid (lots) for - the models (several scenarios) would be updated regularly and instos kept schmoozed.

As for the rationale attributed to GyG - that sounds pretty dodgy; maybe more about 'market sentiment' . The best proxy for appetite for VA stock is of course Qantas, and I am surprised to see that their recovery from the bottom last year has stalled a bit.

View attachment 392552

If there is no apparent local prompt for the partial divestiture by Bain, it might be exogenous - a foreign cornerstone investor indicating that they are ready to go.

OT but I have noticed a definite softening of loads at peak times on flights to MEL and PER. I think VA is very sensitive to the per capita recession a lot of people are now starting to experience. This will also be applying to QF to some extent as well which may explain the slow down in share price growth for QF. There has to be an impact on airlines now that revenge travel and flight credits have flushed out of the system.

 

[jakeseven7]

“The understanding is that the move to accelerate the float plans comes after Guzman y Gomez soared by more than 30 per cent on the first day of trade for its IPO on Thursday.”

“Perhaps this time around, Virgin has a key cornerstone investor for the deal – potentially an offshore carrier.“

Maybe GYG could take a cornerstone investment in VA3. Put tacos on the in flight menu

 

[HS-TQE]

Maybe GYG could take a cornerstone investment in VA3. Put tacos on the in flight menu

Could not be any worse than Red Rooster at REX..

 

[jakeseven7]

Could not be any worse than Red Rooster at REX..

Sounds like a threat.
Rebrand incoming: Virgin Guzman v Rooster Rex.

 

[SYD]

Maybe GYG could take a cornerstone investment in VA3. Put tacos on the in flight menu

and AI in there somewhere!

Rumour has it that GYG perfected GuacAI!

 

[Must...Fly!]

OT but I have noticed a definite softening of loads at peak times on flights to MEL and PER. I think VA is very sensitive to the per capita recession a lot of people are now starting to experience. This will also be applying to QF to some extent as well which may explain the slow down in share price growth for QF. There has to be an impact on airlines now that revenge travel and flight credits have flushed out of the system.

Absolutely no doubt about the transcon loads.

So it's the perfect time for Rex to enter, right?

 

[Saab34]

Back to Virgin, so if Bain are going to float in H1 FY25, when do we hear that Qatar is going to take a stake? Do they do that say prior to commencing the roadshows?

 

[ben95]

Do they do that say prior to commencing the roadshows?

If QR(or anyone) being a cornerstone investor that’ll take big stake then yes. I could be wrong but it’s harder to take on a significant stake after a company goes public.

 

[RooFlyer]

Back to Virgin, so if Bain are going to float in H1 FY25, when do we hear that Qatar is going to take a stake? Do they do that say prior to commencing the roadshows?

If by roadshows you mean insto presentations (and I think they are over-rated in importance, as I've said somewhere above), then yes. Something we may wish to speculate on is whether there will be a bookbuild for the pricing; if this is the case, then the price they will pay for a share will very much be determined by their perceptions of company structure and control, so they will need to know. I'd expect the Board to be named, at least on an 'expected' basis early as well.

Bookbuild or not will depend on their perceived strength of demand at the time.

 

[Digicola]

Sounds like a threat.
Rebrand incoming: Virgin Guzman v Rooster Rex.

I think you missed a great opportunity to call it Rex Rooster!

Jokes aside whilst it sounds weird to announce an IPO roadmap now during slower months current booking for the summer period should be telling of future demand. Futhermore they probably want to move fast before Rex announces something like SYD/BNE-PER and further tank yields on high yielding markets. Look at VA fares for MEL/ADL-PER… even cheaper than JQ on many days, yikes!

 

[Saab34]

I really think some are over stating the impact Rex on transcon is doing to have on Virgin. Rex is planning 5 flights a week. Virgin has 8 flights per day. Sure, it might impact yield on that late night flight, and red eye. But 90% don’t want to fly on these flights.

Pricing is still very high for daytime flights having a look. Seems to be it’s only that last flight of the day they look like they will play price games with.

Looking at VA Loads today on expert flyer, seems to be 90% range full on MEL-PER

 

[RSVKanga]

Qatar in talks to take up to 20pc stake in Virgin

The transaction, if successful, would hand the Qatari carrier up to 20 per cent of the private equity-owned airline and comes amid a stalled ASX float process.

www.afr.com

 

[SYD]

Qatar in talks to take up to 20pc stake in Virgin

The transaction, if successful, would hand the Qatari carrier up to 20 per cent of the private equity-owned airline and comes amid a stalled ASX float process.

www.afr.com

Already being discussed here…

Qatar in talks to take up to 20pc stake in Virgin

Article from the AFR. https://www.afr.com//companies/transport/qatar-in-talks-to-take-up-to-20pc-stake-in-virgin-20240626-p5jowb?btis Qatar Airways, one of the largest airline groups in the world, is negotiating to take as much as a 20 per cent stake in Virgin Australia in a deal that, if...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[travelislife]

Things have to be softer on demand, I fly Virgin every week SYD-MEL return the below $96 fares is not normal on MEL-SYD outside happy hour and targeted sales. Not every day. And the cheap fares usually on only certain flights, where appears to be available across a lot of different flight times even at peaks like 7am.

 

[MooTime]

Things have to be softer on demand, I fly Virgin every week SYD-MEL return the below $96 fares is not normal on MEL-SYD outside happy hour and targeted sales. Not every day. And the cheap fares usually on only certain flights, where appears to be available across a lot of different flight times even at peaks like 7am.

View attachment 392944
View attachment 392945

VA follow any Rex pricing.
Rex current $99 MEL-SYD

Just as VA replicated mel.per $99 over from rexy.

Simple as that.

 

[travelislife]

VA follow any Rex pricing.
Rex current $99 MEL-SYD

Just as VA replicated mel.per $99 over from rexy.

Simple as that.

Yep. Which means demand must be there for both, and will be impacting yields for both.

 

[Saab34]

I note the Fokker 100 fleet is getting smaller, now down to only 3 operational plus one used for parts.

What route is required to keep these jets?