What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

Just got my old crystal ball out of the chook shed got the wife to clean it up, had a rub (the ball that is) bingo says between parity and 1.10 so there you have it.
 
Hmm, dropped a cent or two over night... My overseas trip is booked in two months... Yes, almost without fail my own personal Murphy's Law of travel is coming into effect!!!! :(

Its much the same relationship as when i finally get around to watering my lawn and the almost certain probability of rain occuring in the next 24 hours!!!

Someone should pay me to cause such effects, or study my patterns for amazing insights into the future!!!
 
drron said:
So within 24 hours of the experts saying it wont fall it starts to do so.
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I think they were talking about longer term than daily fluctuations. Short term factors (e.g. the rate drop plus some short term USD strength against ALL currencies) have caused a short term drop but longer term rates are still considerably higher here than overseas and hence the dollar is most likely to stay in it's current trading range just aboove $1 US. I'm not predicting here, merely suggesting that currencies generally fall for a reason (even if economists can't predict that reason), so something material would nee to change the equilibrium, this hasn't really happened yet.

But as many have noted, rates do fluctuate, the trick is not to mistake a fluctuation for a trend!
 
FWIW the lowest the $AUD has been over the last 18 months has been the 95 -97 cent range and both times it got down around there it rebounded back up quite quickly on the back of OS investment in the ASX. Our stock market has been (comparitively) out of favour with overseas investors for quite a while now because, at higher exchange rates, it is not good value for them to invest. Even Chinese money has been steadily withdrawn from our market (contrary to a lot of popular opinion) and has instead been redeployed primarily in the US. Low OS investment is the the main reason the ASX200 has fallen so far off the pace compared to the S&P500 and other world markets over the past 2 years or so - e.g. generally the ASX200 should be about 4 - 4.1 times the S&P500 but ATM the figures (futures markets) are around 5215 / 1630 which gives a parity figure between these markets of only 3.20. That a drop of 20 -25% against the US market since 2011. We really are lagging behind.

Given the recent history of what has happened when the $AUD has dipped previously, a similar flow of money into our market if the $AUD hits the mid nineties will likely stop it from falling further and then cause it to drift back up to the 1.03 mark before long where it has been "most comfortable". Of course that's a simplistic version which ignores interest rate changes, the gold price etc. The next significant move (for both the $AUD and the ASX) is usually around September when dividend season usually gives our market another boost.

Totally agree that it's wise not to listen to the experts - bank economists etc have an absolutely woeful record with their predictions.

Getting the best exchange rate for your OS travel money has always seemed to me to be primarily a case of good luck / good timing - something you can't count on so it's something that doesn't even come into my calculations.
 
I always notice the Aussie climbs against other Northern currencies during the Northern Hemisphere Summer.
 
It is not the end of the world if our Aussie dollar trades lower. I can remember paying some travel at half the current rate and that really hurt but around parity with the US dollar creates some amazing shopping bargains overseas.
The US is heading quickly towards energy independence so those massive budget deficits will start dropping. We may end up with a stronger US dollar later on in this decade.
 
Any one a mind reader and know what Warren Buffett will do next? He seems to have more influence on the value that the Reserve bank does.
JoyV
 
kpc said:
The AUD did not like the budget:(: 0.9904 to the US.
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Keep up the good work. I get paid in GBP. And remember poverty struck visits to UK when $3 bought a pound.

Can't. Take. A. Trick. :banghead:
 
Japanese have done a -10% devaluation.
Would expect the Aussie to do likewise.
Canadians and the Kiwis have follow the Japanese and Aussie lead and have devalued.
So 1.02 AUDUSD drops to 0.92?
As the USD appreciates, as it is currently doing, the Aussie will sink lower than the current 0.95.

You do understand our Treasurer has told the RBA to "Restructure the Aussie"?
But hey what the heck, I make money if it goes up or down.
And yes I do trade AUDUSD.
 
vetrade said:
Totally agree that it's wise not to listen to the experts - bank economists etc have an absolutely woeful record with their predictions.
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Actually I think it's not only bank economists that have a problem predicting interest rates. Personally I think the problem with making predictions is that this assumes a rational system, i.e. the exchange rate behaves in a rational way based on known factors and therefore can be predicted. As is well understood humans do not always behave rationally (particularly as a group) and predicting irrational behaviour is almost impossible.
 
It's really easy to predict it though, and I get it with 100% accuracy. I'm absolutely certain that AUD will go down, except I won't tell you when it will start or end, or by how much. :p
 

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