What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[marki]

Double edge sword really these currency depreciations Doctore1003

 

[Doctore1003]

Double edge sword really these currency depreciations Doctore1003

Yes, and we are living in such interesting times with so many countries pursuing unorthodox monetary and fiscal policies. And no one knows how these experiments will end!

 

[eastwest101]

There was another really funny one in the financial pages of The Australian a few weeks ago but I can't find it now, these cartoons seem to sum it up:

 

[Danger]

Three months ago all the 'economic commentators' were saying low 60s. They should all hand in their resignations.

Unbelievable.

 

[anat0l]

Three months ago all the 'economic commentators' were saying low 60s. They should all hand in their resignations.

You know that never happens, no matter how many times the pundits get it wrong.

I guess we are suckers for paying them so much. Then again, quite a few aspects of our life seem to hinge on some sort of paid clairvoyance; for example, weather prediction.

 

[marki]

You know that never happens, no matter how many times the pundits get it wrong.

I guess we are suckers for paying them so much. Then again, quite a few aspects of our life seem to hinge on some sort of paid clairvoyance; for example, weather prediction.

It's frustrating this app does not register my like and I like this post !

And it's only when replying to a post does a like register.

 

[cove]

There is no limits on stupidity and I guess we could blame lead that used to be in household paints.
I saw our office got a contract done at 0.7375 last night and today it is almost a cent lower. It is a very thinly traded market over the holidays.

 

[quokka77]

Weather forecasting accuracy is probably better than currency movement accuracy, I would guess.

 

[Awesom Andy]

Are people really that stupid? Or is it their selfishness and lack of respect for others that shine through?

I have done the same before realising I couldn't get out of my own car, so I guess it can happen to us too.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Three months ago all the 'economic commentators' were saying low 60s. They should all hand in their resignations.

Unbelievable.

Anyone that can actually predict currency movements accurately is not going be making such info public....

 

[Doctore1003]

To paraphrase the old saying, "those that can, do, those that can't, preach".

Mainstream commentators tend to just extrapolate current trends into the future. I constantly shake my head at the amount of faith people seem to put into such rubbish. But then again, I think it is human nature to want to follow the herd.

I've been trading currencies for almost 11 years and I learned long ago to ignore what passes as "analysis" in the mainstream media and to 'fade' what the herd is doing when sentiment becomes one-sided.

 

[Danger]

You know that never happens, no matter how many times the pundits get it wrong.

I guess we are suckers for paying them so much. Then again, quite a few aspects of our life seem to hinge on some sort of paid clairvoyance; for example, weather prediction.

The Bureau of Meteorology. Another government organisation fleecing the taxpayer for no return.

 

[SeatBackForward]

The Bureau of Meteorology. Another government organisation fleecing the taxpayer for no return.

I'd argue the no return aspect. The BOM provides a lot of information that is used by a wide range of industries. And we are lucky in Australia to get access to this information for free because it is government run. It's a struggle to get that type of information for free from many other places.

 

[whatmeworry]

I have got a lot of useful information from the BOM. They have warned me of super storms, UV levels and fire dangers.

Plus their super computer is used by other agencies.

 

[Gringo]

Long term average is 0.7 USD. So fair value now.

When everyone is talking it down is just the time it goes up however - the "pain trade"

 

[Cruiser Elite]

The Bureau of Meteorology. Another government organisation fleecing the taxpayer for no return.

I too cannot agree with this in any way - go ask the coughies (farmers) how valuable the BOM is.

 

[PLANT]

The BOM aint free to big business..... From what and who I know.....
Anyways just watched THE BIG SHORT..... How is this not going to happen in Australia too? Hence when it does the dollar will dive dive dive? 2016 prediction here..... Anyone else shorting..... Now?

 

[earlyriser]

The BOM aint free to big business..... From what and who I know.....
Anyways just watched THE BIG SHORT..... How is this not going to happen in Australia too? Hence when it does the dollar will dive dive dive? 2016 prediction here..... Anyone else shorting..... Now?

Loved the movie. I am no finance expert but isn't the difference here that people earn more money and loans are tougher to get from the banks? My parents are currently having issues selling their house despite a bunch of offers because the banks won't give finance above the value of the house.

 

[cove]

Gee earlyriser that hardly seems reasonable. Banks will struggle to avoid losses in 2016 if real estate starts to slump in areas that have had booming prices last year.
When it comes to currency we are trying to buy the highs rather than the lows. It does look like the US dollar is fully priced now so if they keep printing money then many won't be too keen to hold it for those magnificent interest rates.

 

[moa999]

Loved the movie. I am no finance expert .

The big difference in Aus is personal liability for the mortgage - you can't stick the keys in the door and walk away. Provides greater incentive to stay even if loan is underwater.

That said I did read an article that said 40% of Melbourne apartments purchased over the last two years have gone down in price