What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[whatmeworry]

Spike in Inflation so no interest cut in August.

 

[RAM]

Well the AUD seems stable at the moment...

..and you are saying that just to temp fate?

One of the best historical indicators of impending AUD moves has been front page AFR headlines calling the AUD.

Seems the AFR are often the last one through the door before the flow changes direction...

Doing the opposite made money with 6 weeks on every occasion from 1985 to 2005 when used for real money (aka active FX for wholesale super funds et al). Early rule learnt - never set the forwards out more than two months.

 

[Foreigner]

Post-Brexit, the outlook for GBP is lower still to $1.16 level by end of this quarter - currently barely above $1.28. Euro too is forecast to dip. USD is forecast to be bounce back following stretch of economic torpor in the US.

It’s Dollar’s Time Now Post-Brexit, Top Currency Forecaster Says - Bloomberg

AUD just above 0.74 level.

 

[Doctore1003]

There are so many conflicting signals out there. Brexit fallout, European banks, US interest rate expectations, yen strength, more QE ... all these things are buffeting markets. Even among the few professional traders I follow and whose opinions I respect, there are highly divergent views on where stocks, currencies, bonds etc are going over the coming weeks/months. It's a coughshoot.

 

[drron]

It amuses me that there are countries trying to deliberately weaken there currency to enhance exports-China,Japan for example-but when the UK comes up with the most effective measure to weaken their currency everyone is up in arms.Looking forward to a few more UK imports on our shelves.

 

[Foreigner]

It amuses me that there are countries trying to deliberately weaken there currency to enhance exports-China,Japan for example-but when the UK comes up with the most effective measure to weaken their currency everyone is up in arms.Looking forward to a few more UK imports on our shelves.

What kinds of items would you think of...Marks & Spencer clothing or sweets & treats or...? (Range Rovers would be cheaper but not quite off the shelf!)

 

[Flashback]

What kinds of items would you think of...Marks & Spencer clothing or sweets & treats or...? (Range Rovers would be cheaper but not quite off the shelf!)

I think drron is saying he wants to reimport me back to Australia :mrgreen:

 

[drron]

More sweets and treats.Scottish smoked salmon and shortbread for however much longer they remain as part of the UK.

 

[marki]

More sweets and treats.Scottish smoked salmon and shortbread for however much longer they remain as part of the UK.

Oh that short bread will be cheaper now

 

[RAM]

Oh that short bread will be cheaper now

Thank you for the reminder - time to book the Dec accommodation.

Much better rate than back when the flights were booked in Feb.

 

[cove]

I bought some GB pounds and US dollars this morning so that should put a floor under those currencies so you can beat my deals. Nothing like forex to make a fool out of you I think.

 

[Freq Flier 2013]

Cove looks like you were right if your earlier post re Australia credit rating.
The stock market was going up today until this announcement.
http://m.smh.com.au/business/the-ec...rating-on-negative-watch-20160707-gq0g4t.html

 

[marki]

Wow dollar buying 0.6880 Euro cents nice up trend put in a limit order in overnight let's see it it catches

 

[cove]

Not sure if our $AUD will charge up to 0.77 or higher this week but the metal markets are stirring.

 

[Foreigner]

Not sure if our $AUD will charge up to 0.77 or higher this week but the metal markets are stirring.

the AUD's upward trajectory, cove, makes me cringe

 

[Doctore1003]

We'll see a bit of movement with China trade data today, tomorrow's Aussie jobs numbers, and Chinese GDP and industrial data and US CPI Friday.

Not to mention the ongoing risk of some big news out of Japan, Italy etc

With the AUD/USD at pre-Brexit highs, it won't be boring!

 

[Tortuga]

It feels like this metals rally is more based on speculation rather than a sudden fundamental shift in supply/demand.. We all know the Chinese markets enjoy a good pump and dump. This appreciation will not be making the RBA sleep well at night, they will be more inclined to cut if it continues on its trend.

 

[Doctore1003]

It feels like this metals rally is more based on speculation rather than a sudden fundamental shift in supply/demand.. We all know the Chinese markets enjoy a good pump and dump. This appreciation will not be making the RBA sleep well at night, they will be more inclined to cut if it continues on its trend.

After this week's strong business confidence data, if the jobs numbers hold up there will be no rate cut on the horizon.

 

[Tortuga]

After this week's strong business confidence data, if the jobs numbers hold up there will be no rate cut on the horizon.

Central bank wars is in full effect. A strong AUD could push us back again - do we think this metals rally is long lasting?

 

[Doctore1003]

Central bank wars is in full effect.

I'm not sure that I buy this idea of central bank / currency wars. Who's really fighting that hard? Central bankers are doing what macroeconomics tells them to do in a low inflation / deflation, post-financial crisis environment. Especially when fiscal stimulus is inadequate. I can't see any currency values that are out of whack with fundamentals... where are they? People talk about the Chinese yuan, but one look at a 10-year chart says otherwise. I like Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman on this topic... See for example: Has truce been declared in the currency wars? - FT.com and his blog at marctomarket.com