What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[Cruiser Elite]

We are going to the US tomorrow and today's exchange rate works for us.

Good grief man - I've seen you eat but will saving that thrupence each meal really help you?

 

[Foreigner]

Agree on the uselessness. It hasn't achieved a drop in AUD, and hasn't achieved a drop in lending rates to the public. It's basically firing a bullet when it would make no difference.

Firing blanks, in other words...

 

[Doctore1003]

The RBA is a bit of a yawn and a distraction. Much bigger global forces are affecting the AUD right now, like foreign money coming in to buy Aussie bonds, which are Triple A rated and yielding well in comparison to others. Plus indications of a rebound in China.

 

[anat0l]

I'm not greedy, 70 pence to the AUD will do me fine.

Not greedy? Think you might be asking for a bit more than our praying-for-parity brethren here.

The AUD has not closed on 70p for at least 10 years. In 2013 it got close (and may have gone over 70p outside of market close); peak closed at around 69p.

 

[wandering_fred]

Well now having given a nod to the market, perhaps if the RBA were to reduce another 0.25 next month (unexpectedly) the upward pressure on AUD might be reduced.

I'm biased as my pension is paid in USD.

Note: as the AUD interest rate is reduced, the underlying value of the assets increase to reflect the market rate (which is lower). So the people who have already purchased the bonds for yield get another win...

Happy wandering

Fred

 

[cove]

CE I have Mrscove in 1A and I am in 4A. Coated in upgrade fairy dust for our make QF Platinum in one trip. I think Mrscove will go Sleeping Beauty shortly. I am on my second glass of 2006 Veuve......third now....

 

[JohnK]

Meanwhile the population is getting older by the day and doesn't want to keep working until 68 years of age.

 

[TiredOldFlyer]

Meanwhile the population is getting older by the day and doesn't want to keep working until 68 years of age.

I am a lot older than that JK
and hope to work for many more
Years yet or at least untill I can't
Navigate an aero bridge !

 

[wandering_fred]

Meanwhile the population is getting older by the day and doesn't want to keep working until 68 years of age.

Tell that to the farmers....

Happy wandering

Fred

 

[TiredOldFlyer]

CE I have Mrscove in 1A and I am in 4A. Coated in upgrade fairy dust for our make QF Platinum in one trip. I think Mrscove will go Sleeping Beauty shortly. I am on my second glass of 2006 Veuve......third now....

Enjoy Cove and when you are there perhaps you could straighten out
the debacle of the Presidential elections and maybe our dollar will
stabilise.

 

[RAM]

Firing blanks, in other words...

The RBA (in private conversations with no names) refer to the easing since 5% as 'as effective as pushing on a piece of string'.

Enough said.

There's over twenty years of live example of the failure of extremely low rates - Japan. Has more miles of concreted rivers, streams, 6 lane bridges to villages of 280 residents than any other place on earth.

 

[Doctore1003]

The Aussie is holding up so well and threatening a breakout higher despite this week's
a) rate cut
b) poor retail sales
c) terrible trade data
d) bad building approvals data

This is the definition of bullish price action you guys.

 

[drsmithy]

There's over twenty years of live example of the failure of extremely low rates - Japan. Has more miles of concreted rivers, streams, 6 lane bridges to villages of 280 residents than any other place on earth.

...Along with some of the highest living standards and longest (?) life expectancy on Earth.

There could have been a lot worse countries to spend the last thirty years in.

But ultimately, yes, lower and lower rates aren't addressing the problems.

 

[Flashback]

UK has followed suit!

Bank of England cuts base rate.
For the first time since March 2009 the Bank of England base rate has changed. Citing economic uncertainty following the EU referendum the MPC has voted to cut the base rate by a quarter point to 0.25%

 

[JohnK]

The world has gone mad.

 

[anat0l]

The world has gone mad.

See, with the recent changes to AFF, the system has paraphrased your last post as everyone is heading to Spain. :mrgreen:

 

[JohnK]

The Aussie is holding up so well and threatening a breakout higher despite this week's
a) rate cut
b) poor retail sales
c) terrible trade data
d) bad building approvals data

This is the definition of bullish price action you guys.

Sometimes there are much simpler explanations.

I exchanged AUD -> THB in Chiang Mai 4 times until Tuesday and AUD was steady. As soon as it was clear I wasn't exchanging any more the AUD has been climbing back. Back again in 4 weeks if anyone wants to plan their foreign exchange purchases.

 

[Hvr]

Sometimes there are much simpler explanations.

I exchanged AUD -> THB in Chiang Mai 4 times until Tuesday and AUD was steady. As soon as it was clear I wasn't exchanging any more the AUD has been climbing back. Back again in 4 weeks if anyone wants to plan their foreign exchange purchases.

Given I'll be in Bangkok next week (10-17 Aug) you can assume the AUD$ will drop quickly and stay down until I return. :evil:

Last time I was there I actually purchased some THB in the morning and later that day the rate had dropped so I actually won that one.

 

[JohnK]

Given I'll be in Bangkok next week (10-17 Aug) you can assume the AUD$ will drop quickly and stay down until I return. :evil:

Last time I was there I actually purchased some THB in the morning and later that day the rate had dropped so I actually won that one.

I've got a fair few THB with me for next trip. Hedging bets.

 

[Deleted member 6404]

The RBA are like lost sheep following the pack of other countries failed solutions, at the same time making the populous poorer and poorer I for one have no intention to work ever again except for my self-growing my own and being self-sufficient.
The fools are still at the helm, the definition of madness doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome, that's our RBA