What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[MEL_Traveller]

With or without fees? From memory they charge commission? I'll check tomorrow.

Zero commission charged in Melbourne. Just checking the interbank rate is around .7997, so the spread is about right if they are offering .7926 (it's about the same spread I got when buying USD last year through them).

 

[cove]

We used UAE for Russian cash for our sons soccer trip. Mrscove was impressed with them. We would use them again

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Australian dollar surges to 32-month high as US talks down the greenback - Sydney Morning Herald

The Aussie rose as high as US81.83¢ at about 2.30am AEDT before sinking and rallying again to set above US81¢ again late in the afternoon. It was the dollar's highest mark since May 2015.

On Wednesday, Westpac lifted its Australian dollar forecast for the end of 2018 to US72¢, from a previous forecast of US70¢.

 

[JohnK]

XE USD = 0.8090
Crown Currency exchange USD = 0.7873
UAE exchange USD = 0.795

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Australian dollar tipped to slide back to 70 US cents - Sydney Morning Herald

The Aussie is poised to go into reverse as the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates, while the Reserve Bank of Australia leaves borrowing costs at a record low, said James Athey at Aberdeen Standard Investments in London, who is adding to his short positions. Schroder Investment Management Australia, which is also short, said the Aussie is likely to trade closer to 70 US cents than 80 cents in 12 months.

It's only a matter of time before the Aussie drops below 70 cents, according to Tony Bradley, a partner at hedge fund Hunter Burton Capital in Sydney.

"As the Fed hikes and US rates overtake Australia's, it will put pressure on the Aussie dollar, but the RBA doesn't care," Bradley said . "I am short and hope to be able to stay short for most of the year."

 

[serfty]

Australian dollar tipped to slide back to 70 US cents - Sydney Morning Herald

I saw that and thought "what's in it for them?". Yes ... I am a cynic.

 

[JohnK]

It takes a long time for the AUD to climb but the fall is usually short and sweet.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

The Aussie wasn't meant to be this way - Brisbane Times

Stories were commonplace last year about the Aussie being under pressure as the yield differential narrowed. “Everybody” knew the Aussie would tumble as America was first out of the blocks in lifting rates.

Now, “everybody” isn’t so sure. The annual exercise of economists throwing darts at currency forecasts has resulted in a much wider spread than usual. The alleged experts’ guesses range from 67 US cents (Morgan Stanley) to 84 US cents (HSBC) by December.

The forecasting herd still tends to favour something in the lower 70s, but the reality is that nobody knows. Foreign exchange forecasting remains a mug’s game.

 

[LadyC]

It takes a long time for the AUD to climb but the fall is usually short and sweet.

As my friend says, up the stairs and down the elevator!

 

[TheRealTMA]

As my friend says, up the stairs and down the elevator!

Think that applies to random opinions more than the reality of the AUD.

 

[cove]

America has a debt level that is growing into trillions that will be a burden on the next 2 or 3 generations who choose to live there. They need a weak US dollar to improve their trade imbalance. The $AUD may test a bit higher this month.

 

[LadyC]

Think that applies to random opinions more than the reality of the AUD.

Well he does work in the financial markets but I think their predictions are often only slightly more educated guesses than you or I!

 

[TheRealTMA]

Well he does work in the financial markets but I think their predictions are often only slightly more educated guesses than you or I!

We are talking about different OPs I suggest. But, hey, it probably doesn't matter! Morgans in BNE have consistently got this, floats and share price recomendations wrong for years.

 

[daft009]

urgh, whats happening to the AUD vs the euro...
when can we have 66-67c again

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Trumponomics and the surprisingly strong Australian dollar - Sydney Morning Herald

'Underperformer': $180b fund manager AMP is betting against the Aussie dollar - Sydney Morning Herald

 

[Danger]

"The Australian and New Zealand dollars are expected to end the year around current levels, a Reuters poll has found, even as the risk of faster US rate hikes and a global trade war sparks wild gyrations in currency markets."

Australian dollar's volatile run tipped to end

 

[JohnK]

The SGD is still stronger than the AUD in Thailand exchanges. The sell-buy spread in the AUD is wider too.

 

[redone123]

It takes a long time for the AUD to climb but the fall is usually short and sweet.

I operate on the basis that the AUD tends to fluctuate between USD0.60 and USD0.85. Where it presently sits in that range gives me a guide as to whether it is likely to trend higher or lower over coming months (although I note that with the US running ever increasing deficits maybe the USD is on a gradual decline against many other currencies)

 

[JohnK]

AUD - THB24.01 and close to parity with SGD.

I don't remember the THB that low.

 

[cove]

There are large short seller positions on the US dollar at the moment. The AUD could go anywhere.