What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[Strategic Aviation]

Australian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate (AUD/USD) Rises 0.5% despite RBA Caution - Nine Currency News

The Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate has seen a substantial rise of 0.5% today, although this is mainly down to USD weakness at the present time.

There will be additional high-impact Australian economic data out this week, but for the most part the ecostats could end up worsening the AUD/USD exchange rate.

The biggest blow to AUD traders could come on 5th April, when February’s balance of trade figure is tipped to shrink from a surplus of AU$1.055bn to AU$0.7bn.

 

[JohnK]

Slow rise and then sharp fall by June when I need to exchange more.

 

[Flashback]

Don't worry - GBP has been really strong lately, then as soon as I stepped on the plane it's plummeted against all the currencies I track

 

[OZDUCK]

The one time that exchange rates really worked for me was when we spent a year in Europe in 1976/7. We bought a car - 1972 Mk111 Cortina - with cash from our Australian bank accountt via the Commonwealth Bank branch near Australia House in London. We paid £750 for it , used it for 8 months and sold it for about £650. During our use of the car Fraser had the 17.5%% devaluation of the Australian Dollar. AUSTRALIA DEVALUES CURRENCY BY 17.5%

When we re-banked our cash we had made a profit on having the car - obviously apart from the running costs.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Australian Dollar Rides Global Growth as US Slides - Citi Australia

Looking more closely at major currencies we think the USD will be weaker in the long term. This may come as a shock given the Federal Reserve's increasing rates, and the US economy is growing strongly. If fact we've upped our 2018 growth forecast to 2.8 per cent primarily because of tax cuts and late stage fiscal stimulus, while the US unemployment rate has hit 4.10 per cent and we think it can go lower. On the face of it the USD should be rallying.

What makes us bearish on the USD in the long term is a lower dollar is required to draw investors to invest, specifically to US Treasury bonds. Remember, US growth has come at a cost of a larger US fiscal deficit relative to the rest of the world. Add in the Fed's exit strategy from quantitative easing via its Government bond buying programme, coupled with a trade deficit, and there's plenty of economic reasons why the USD will underperform. A weaker USD and higher interest rates are necessary to entice investors.

Another seeming oddity is the Australian dollar. The Australian economy is underperforming so the dollar should be heading lower. And yet we are moderately bullish on AUD over the next 12 months.

The AUD stands to benefit from US growth that is a foundation of the global growth narrative. It's also closely correlated to the Asian supply chain given our large exports include iron ore, coal and increasingly gas.

 

[cove]

Longer term interest rates in the US are now higher than in Australia. That has started to put a bit of pressure on the $AUD.

 

[JohnK]

And the AUD goes crash again.

 

[cove]

I actually prefer a lowish interest rate than a high $AUD. If our home loan interest rates go up 2% the pain level from mortgage stress will be bad. Many of those who have increased their debt levels when interest rates are low will find that out. US mortgage money has already moved up so we will have this in Australia within a couple of years.

 

[cove]

It is about 0.7560 this morning against the US dollar.

 

[Jacques Vert]

It is about 0.7560 this morning against the US dollar.

Glad I locked some in "just in case" when the Aussi was higher; got 0.764 through QCash (after the 4% fee). Currently in Sth America and happy to have some $US at a rate I can live with if the Aussi continues to fall.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

Why the Australian dollar's getting slammed - Sydney Morning Herald

Australian dollar could slump to 'mid-60s', says Vimal Gor - Sydney Morning Herald

'Underperformer': Australian dollar drops below US74c - Sydney Morning Herald

 

[flying_duck]

So for the uninformed in this thread, if I have say 7K USD to pay in the next two months, I should be paying it immediately?

 

[cove]

At work we have been pre-paying and taking a cash discount on US dollar purchases as we felt the $AUD was going down.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So for the uninformed in this thread, if I have say 7K USD to pay in the next two months, I should be paying it immediately?

Who knows? i think 75c has been a reasonable rate of late. It goes a bit above, a bit below. But i’d have been happy with 75c. This recent plunge may recover. If it gets back to 75 i’ll go buy some USD

 

[RAM]

Who knows? i think 75c has been a reasonable rate of late. It goes a bit above, a bit below. But i’d have been happy with 75c. This recent plunge may recover. If it gets back to 75 i’ll go buy some USD

Normally when people make a statement like yours - the Gods of the Currency Market go to great lengths to make them suffer.

It is a bit like people who buy shares that then proceed to fall in value who say; 'When it gets back to where I bought it then I'll dump it'

More like wishful thinking.

If you're a risk seeker - then roll the dice and see what happens.

If not so much of a risk seeker - then you could buy half now and gamble on the outcome with the other half.

If you don't like risk that much - bite the bullet today and do not suffer the next few weeks/months checking the exchange rate hourly....

If you start to see many headlines that the AUD is heading to something starting with a 6 then don't buy as it will almost cetainly be heading back up shortly thereafter..

 

[rock86]

Normally when people make a statement like yours - the Gods of the Currency Market go to great lengths to make them suffer.

It is a bit like people who buy shares that then proceed to fall in value who say; 'When it gets back to where I bought it then I'll dump it'

More like wishful thinking.

If you're a risk seeker - then roll the dice and see what happens.

If not so much of a risk seeker - then you could buy half now and gamble on the outcome with the other half.

If you don't like risk that much - bite the bullet today and do not suffer the next few weeks/months checking the exchange rate hourly....

If you start to see many headlines that the AUD is heading to something starting with a 6 then don't buy as it will almost cetainly be heading back up shortly thereafter..

I'd also love to see the trade sheets for a whole lot of the experts who come out and say a currency is going to tank, most of them only have one interest in mind and hardly ever take an objective stance.

They're similar to reviews where the reviewer was 'a guest of' the company it is reviewing.

 

[RAM]

I'd also love to see the trade sheets for a whole lot of the experts who come out and say a currency is going to tank, most of them only have one interest in mind and hardly ever take an objective stance.

They're similar to reviews where the reviewer was 'a guest of' the company it is reviewing.

Speaking from experience (placing bets with some of the over-paid experts) the forecasts they make are normally made to ensure they do not lose their job. They all talk with each other and very, very few ever stick their neck out. They prefer to be wrong in company than risk being right on their own.

One very well known commentator got hit with a 6 figure FX bill for an overseas holiday home purchase because he figured he and the other experts must be right - so he did not lock in the exchange rate when his offer was accepted.

Expensive lesson for him, chuckle, chuckle!

 

[Strategic Aviation]

It was getting ugly for the Aussie dollar until Donald Trump came to the rescue - Business Insider Australia

After surging higher on the back of a stellar Australian jobs report for June, the AUD/USD reversed those gains, and more, in early European trade, succumbing to a renewed bout of investor risk aversion sparked by another sharp selloff in the Chinese yuan, sending it skidding to a more than one-year low against the US dollar.

However, just when it looked like the Aussie was going to tumble below the 72 cent level to fresh multi-year lows, Donald Trump stepped in, delivering a broadside to the US Federal Reserve in an interview conducted with CNBC.

The remarks had an instant impact, pushing down US bond yields to the detriment of the US dollar and stocks. They also helped the AUD/USD recover some of the losses seen earlier in the session.

In the end, the AUD/USD traded in a massive trading range of 121 pips, or 1.63%, finishing the session at .7358.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

'Bearish view': Australian dollar near multi-month low - Sydney Morning Herald

The Australian dollar is hovering at its weakest point in months as traders wager the local cash rate will stay at a record low for some time yet compared to the steady pace of tightening by the US Federal Reserve.

The Australian dollar held at US73.76¢, within spitting distance of a 1½-year trough of US73.11¢ touched earlier this month.

"We have a bearish view on the Aussie," said Steven Dooley, currency strategist at Western Union Business Solutions. "In an environment where the Fed is raising rates and the RBA is on hold, based on market expectations at least until 2020, our year-end target for the Aussie is 72.00."

Mr Dooley sees critical chart support at 73.20, tipping a break below to possibly see the Aussie easing to 71.50.

 

[cove]

I should be trading it between 0.7370 and 0.7420 each night until it changes levels. Three or 4 trades a week could improve our currency position by at least 2 cents.