What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[froggerADL]

Every year we travel with friends from Florida for 5 or 6 weeks.
When I told them what the acronym meant they were gob-smacked!

Gob-smacked or ....................... paranoid?

 

[JohnK]

Swings and roundabouts indeed....

 

[burmans]

I have been hearing from many builders and tradesmen are struggling to find work.

Given the average quality of work from tradesman I'm not sure this is a surprise, I suspect the good ones aren't finding it quite as hard.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

bizarre... interest rate cut and the dollar soars 5%. go figure.

 

[uvkelly]

The increase is due to the fact that the market had priced in a 0.5% cut prior to the announcement and when it was only 0.25% the price had to be recalculated. Not so bizarre.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The increase is due to the fact that the market had priced in a 0.5% cut prior to the announcement and when it was only 0.25% the price had to be recalculated. Not so bizarre.

ah! thanks for that! being overseas I didn't know of the planned .5%, only that an interest rate cut was most likely (and I'd assumed .25% for some reason).

 

[Hvr]

I have been hearing from many builders and tradesmen are struggling to find work. <snip>

For tradies struggling to find work I have no sympathy. I spent months trying to find tradies to come and work on my residence. When I found one to do a specific task I asked him to recommend others in different fields. He recommended one who made an appointment and then didn't bother attending or even answering his phone.

I spent hours (and $) ringing mobiles listed in local papers advertising tradies and either getting told they were too busy or leave a message and we'll get back to you and they never did.

My terms were full payment upon completion with a reasonable deposit. One tradie was very (happily) surprised when he advised me of completion of the job, and it was done very well I will add, on time and everything properly cleaned up, that I wanted to pay him the agreed price immediately.

The total jobs (five all up) were completed in about one month work time with an additional six months searching and being stuffed around time.

If tradies are suffering then their business model is stuffed and they deserve to go broke.

 

[JohnK]

What's with the sudden increase in the AUD? Election nearing?

Now ~29.5 THB and ~0.917 USD.

 

[footy99]

Shhh. Don't jinx it!

 

[JohnK]

I need to purchase some flights in SGD and THB and wondering if I purchase now or wait a few more days.

 

[jetlagger]

What's with the sudden increase in the AUD? Election nearing?

Now ~29.5 THB and ~0.917 USD.

Keep praying to THCHE..

 

[jetlagger]

I need to purchase some flights in SGD and THB and wondering if I purchase now or wait a few more days.

Try flipping a coin..

 

[JohnK]

Try flipping a coin..

Which one? I have plenty of those.

I'll wait one more day and assess the situation again.

 

[sumthinfornuthin]

Toss a 1 dollar coin and call heads, that way you can't lose.

 

[jetlagger]

Which one? I have plenty of those.

I'll wait one more day and assess the situation again.

The +/- coin...

 

[drsmithy]

I need to purchase some flights in SGD and THB and wondering if I purchase now or wait a few more days.

Well it's not going to change more than a percent or two in the short term, so does it really matter ?

I get people worrying about currency fluctuations on the scale of months or years (maybe even weeks). I don't get people worrying about it on the scale of days. Heck, even if you're lining up to spend ten grand on flights, the currency fluctuations aren't likely to make a difference of more than a couple of hundred bucks.

 

[JohnK]

Well it's not going to change more than a percent or two in the short term, so does it really matter ?

It matters heaps.

I am looking at 20,575THB airfare. Yesterday it was ~AUD719 and today it is ~AUD694. Tomorrow it could be ~AUD669.

I also need to book another airfare ~4,740THB.

I also need to book an airfare which is ~1,090SG. Yesterday it was ~AUD956 and today it is ~AUD936. Tomorrow it could be ~AUD916.

It may not sound like a lot to you but it is a lot to me. I am going to Thailand in September/October, December/January and planning to go in April and July.

I am trying to squeeze another trip to Thailand in February for my 50th birthday.

 

[footy99]

Well it's not going to change more than a percent or two in the short term, so does it really matter ?

I get people worrying about currency fluctuations on the scale of months or years (maybe even weeks). I don't get people worrying about it on the scale of days. Heck, even if you're lining up to spend ten grand on flights, the currency fluctuations aren't likely to make a difference of more than a couple of hundred bucks.

The biggest difference for me is in buying shares. I buy Berkshire shares pretty much whenever I can afford them with no intention to sell. I don't bother trying to predict currency fluctuations or the fluctuations of the share itself - the former I assume to average out over time (not overly accurate to date) and the latter to increase gradually over time (that's held true). All I know is they are much, much better value for me when our currency is high so I am pretty much rooting for that all the time!

 

[whatmeworry]

I need to purchase some flights in SGD and THB and wondering if I purchase now or wait a few more days.

I would lock them in. Who knows how the market will factor in the election or if the US bombs Syria.

 

[Awesom Andy]

I would expect AUD to be higher these few days, as the election looks like producing a winner, unlike last time, (even if you don't like the winner). It brings more certainty to some policies, etc, which can lower risks for investments.