What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[footy99]

The reality is that the RBA and domestic affairs have minimal impact on the dollar, it's what happens to other economies that see the dollar in demand or forgotten about. I think the last time our dollar was significantly impacted by local events was when some dude from Bankstown mentioned some recession we had to have.

The exception is the RBA has a major impact with its ability to lower interest rates. When they get halved over a year or 2, there is no conceivable way for it to be as attractive to foreign investors, or even local investors, as it was. Now they are at an all-time low and the dollar has done nothing but free fall since April. I think those price movements have far more impact on the dollar than anything that is said by Glenn Stevens, except to the extent that what is said affects the likelihood of future moves.

 

[whatmeworry]

The reality is that the RBA and domestic affairs have minimal impact on the dollar, it's what happens to other economies that see the dollar in demand or forgotten about. I think the last time our dollar was significantly impacted by local events was when some dude from Bankstown mentioned some recession we had to have.

What about them ponces from the Northern Suburbs of Sydney and their impact?

 

[JohnK]

I'm smiling, but with significant assets still in Australia that I want to liquidate and move to the UK... There is a big downside.

Do you have a house? That would be hard to move to the UK!

 

[Foreigner]

Despite public holidays locally it looks like FX markets elsewhere are operational. AUD against USD
is at 88.76 cents ATM. Trending downwards.

 

[JohnK]

Trending downwards.

Why am I not surprised?

 

[Flashback]

Despite public holidays locally it looks like FX markets elsewhere are operational. AUD against USD
is at 88.76 cents ATM. Trending downwards.

I think of it more as a 'correction'

 

[Danger]

I think of it more as a 'correction'

Isn't that the forex market synonym for 'enhancement'?

 

[Awesom Andy]

Despite public holidays locally it looks like FX markets elsewhere are operational. AUD against USD
is at 88.76 cents ATM. Trending downwards.

Some markets are open, but given the generally low volume of trading at this time, I wouldn't look too much into it.

 

[markis10]

Some markets are open, but given the generally low volume of trading at this time, I wouldn't look too much into it.

Yep, johnK is back next week so I am hopefully for a spike mid jan , the drop is eating into my hawker budget.

 

[JohnK]

I think of it more as a 'correction'

No, you are mistaken. 'Correction' would be back above parity.

Yep, johnK is back next week so I am hopefully for a spike mid jan , the drop is eating into my hawker budget.

Not long now. Only 9 more days. :mrgreen:

 

[drsmithy]

No, you are mistaken. 'Correction' would be back above parity.

The average of the AUD against the USD since it floated is somewhere in the area of $0.75.

The forays above parity in the last few years are very much out of the ordinary. To say nothing of the damage they are doing to our international competitiveness and export industries.

The only direction it should be correcting is downwards.

 

[JohnK]

The forays above parity in the last few years are very much out of the ordinary. To say nothing of the damage they are doing to our international competitiveness and export industries.

That's in your opinion.

I couldn't care less if the multi nationals arent able to continue making obscene profits to further increase the ever increasing obscene executive salaries.

I do feel sorry for small businesses trying to compete though.

 

[drsmithy]

That's in your opinion.

I couldn't care less if the multi nationals arent able to continue making obscene profits to further increase the ever increasing obscene executive salaries.

I do feel sorry for small businesses trying to compete though.

It's the small businesses that are hurting.

Big multinationals can relatively easily hedge against the currency.

 

[footy99]

It's the small businesses that are hurting.

Big multinationals can relatively easily hedge against the currency.

It obviously evens out across the board by nature. Half like it high, half like it low.

The current rate is drastically below expectation if you look at the last few years but about right considering long term trends. The Aussie would be close to the worst of the top 100 traded currencies for the year, which is a little surprising. Possibly an over-correction to a previously over-valued currency.

 

[Awesom Andy]

It obviously evens out across the board by nature. Half like it high, half like it low.

Unless you run an airline called Qantas. You raise fuel surcharges when the AUD goes one way, and then say that your foreign inbound traffic reduce when the AUD goes the other way.

 

[11sjw]

You forgot the "and all for a massive loss!"

 

[cove]

In 2014 the Aud should trade between 70 cents and one dollar against the US dollar.
For tourists it might make a thousand dollar difference per person on an annual holiday but not an amount that would keep many of us in Australia.
With the currency at 0.88 the shopping in the US is mostly half price compared with Australia but not for everything as world pricing is starting to filter through to Australia from multinationals.

 

[whatmeworry]

In 2014 the Aud should trade between 70 cents and one dollar against the US dollar.

Lol that is such a wide margin.
90c is still good.

 

[blackcat20]

It's the small businesses that are hurting.

Big multinationals can relatively easily hedge against the currency.

This small business would prefer the dollar went up; then my wholesale price would be lower and I could reduce my retail prices.

 

[cove]

We are the exact opposite of blackcat20. We don't retail as we are the wholesaler so we don't chase our retailers down the street for the retail sale.
The higher the currency the lower the prices and less margin to cover costs to distribute products.