What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[NSWP]

Am not real happy with the falling AUD, got 3 months away next year, mid Feb to mid May, need USD, GBP and Euro. Help !!!

Come on you little Aussie Battler, get up there !

 

[sumthinfornuthin]

Am not real happy with the falling AUD, got 3 months away next year, mid Feb to mid May, need USD, GBP and Euro. Help !!!

Come on you little Aussie Battler, get up there !

2 chances I think at the moment, everyone at all levels is doing all they can to talk it down.

What astounds me is the AUD to NZD exchange rate. My wife and I went to NZ 18 months ago at around $ 1.30- $1.35 NZD to the AUD.( I think from memory ) Now it is about $ 1.08 NZD to the AUD. I don't understand how the NZD can appreciate so strongly ( approx 20 %) against the AUD ?? What do they have to sell ??

 

[cove]

NZ has been exporting New Zealanders to Australia quite successfully.
I think our business trades about square on imports and exports with NZ so they punch above their weight.

 

[sumthinfornuthin]

NZ has been exporting New Zealanders to Australia quite successfully.
I think our business trades about square on imports and exports with NZ so they punch above their weight.

But on a world basis they have been appreciating substantially against all major currencies ??

Maybe the "lucky Country" is running out of luck or the spirit of enterprise ?

i see it in the are I live in. I am surrounded by vineyards. Used to be all Aussie workers, now the majority have pointy hats, mostly hard working Cambodians bused in daily because the owners can't get the local Aussies to do the hard work

I think there might be a message there..

 

[drsmithy]

But on a world basis they have been appreciating substantially against all major currencies ??

Maybe the "lucky Country" is running out of luck or the spirit of enterprise ?

The problem here isn't a lack of "spirit of enterprise", but an investment culture and tax system massively stacked against pretty much anything except speculation on property.

i see it in the are I live in. I am surrounded by vineyards. Used to be all Aussie workers, now the majority have pointy hats, mostly hard working Cambodians bused in daily because the owners can't get the local Aussies to do the hard work

I think there might be a message there..

More likely the Australians would be happy to do the "hard work", but the vineyards don't pay enough for them to maintain a decent standard of living doing it.

 

[Foreigner]

2 chances I think at the moment, everyone at all levels is doing all they can to talk it down.

What astounds me is the AUD to NZD exchange rate. My wife and I went to NZ 18 months ago at around $ 1.30- $1.35 NZD to the AUD.( I think from memory ) Now it is about $ 1.08 NZD to the AUD. I don't understand how the NZD can appreciate so strongly ( approx 20 %) against the AUD ?? What do they have to sell ??

The Kiwis may be hoping to get to par with the Aussie...maybe edge higher even.

 

[cove]

As long as they don't thrash us in sport does it really matter?
Our NZ customers and suppliers have proven to be honest and reliable so it doesn't get better than that.
It would be a bit of a wake up call if the NZ dollar beats the pants off the Aussie dollar in 2014.

 

[jetlagger]

i see it in the are I live in. I am surrounded by vineyards. Used to be all Aussie workers, now the majority have pointy hats, mostly hard working Cambodians bused in daily because the owners can't get the local Aussies to do the hard work

I think there might be a message there..

Go & ask the 'pointy hats" how much they earn per day/week/month...
I would assume there would be perhaps evidence of exploitation with their work & living conditions.
There are plenty of Australians willing to do the work for a reasonable minimum AWARD wage.
As an employer I'd be embarrassed to pay less than minimum $25 per hour + super nowadays.

 

[whatmeworry]

What do they have to sell ??

Cows and Sheep, but mainly Dairy products.

One commodity, one customer
But the extent of New Zealand’s reliance on a single commodity and a single customer worries some. New Zealand Herald commentator Bernard Hickey makes the point that the country’s second-largest trade partner, Australia, also is reliant on China and that Kiwis carry much more debt than when they last depended on a single market – England. He didn’t use the term “Dutch Disease”, but it was there between the lines.
Just as China has encouraged a greater diversity of iron ore sources, it can be expected not to rely indefinitely on NZ. The Middle Kingdom also desires to increase and improve its own dairy capacity, but faces water limitations for what is a very water-intensive industry. (That’s why those soggy Kiwis are so good at it, despite suffering what they thought was a drought last year.)

Read more: New Zealand
​

 

[sumthinfornuthin]

The problem here isn't a lack of "spirit of enterprise", but an investment culture and tax system massively stacked against pretty much anything except speculation on property.


More likely the Australians would be happy to do the "hard work", but the vineyards don't pay enough for them to maintain a decent standard of living doing it.

My understanding from talking to the owners is they pay around $ 20/$25 per hour but can't get the locals to stick. they come for a week or so and say "it is too hard"

 

[Awesom Andy]

My understanding from talking to the owners is they pay around $ 20/$25 per hour but can't get the locals to stick. they come for a week or so and say "it is too hard"

That's not too bad. At my joint, I have fresh grads come in, they work for a day, and then say that it's too hard, and leave. And that's with a relatively high starting pay in the industry.

 

[Jleno]

Go & ask the 'pointy hats" how much they earn per day/week/month...
I would assume there would be perhaps evidence of exploitation with their work & living conditions.
There are plenty of Australians willing to do the work for a reasonable minimum AWARD wage.
As an employer I'd be embarrassed to pay less than minimum $25 per hour + super nowadays.

All well and good if the Australians forgoing the low pay have plenty of higher paid alternatives out there. But if what they're doing instead is choosing to sit and home and get centrelink payouts then that's not on.

 

[amaroo]

All well and good if the Australians forgoing the low pay have plenty of higher paid alternatives out there. But if what they're doing instead is choosing to sit and home and get centrelink payouts then that's not on.

Go to any regional coastal location with decent surf and you'll see plenty suffering from entitlement issues.

 

[sumthinfornuthin]

That's not too bad. At my joint, I have fresh grads come in, they work for a day, and then say that it's too hard, and leave. And that's with a relatively high starting pay in the industry.

I also have a friend I have known for over 40 years, he runs an apple orchard. Can't get long term reliable Aussies to work for him so he resorts to employing casual Fijians and Indians all happy to do the job. He even provides free accomodation on the farm ( a 20 square 4 bedroom 1970's B/V for them to live in whilst they are there) Might be hard boring work but still work and the pay is not bad.

 

[Flashback]

I also have a friend I have known for over 40 years, he runs an apple orchard. Can't get long term reliable Aussies to work for him so he resorts to employing casual Fijians and Indians all happy to do the job. He even provides free accomodation on the farm ( a 20 square 4 bedroom 1970's B/V for them to live in whilst they are there) Might be hard boring work but still work and the pay is not bad.

For those who are over on a working holiday visa, by doing that type of work for at least 3 months it allows them to extend their visa for another year - so there's that benefit too...

 

[sumthinfornuthin]

for those who are over on a working holiday visa, by doing that type of work for at least 3 months it allows them to extend their visa for another year - so there's that benefit too...

win/win.......................

 

[Gold Member]

Sorry to bring y'all back on topic... But I'm feeling just a little confident right now. Sometime in August I placed a $400 bet on the dollar ending the year below 90c with odds at 3.5. Come September/October I had surrendered all hope. But of course in the last two months my interest has been sparked again! There's a couple of US data points coming out tonight, but not sure these will surprise the market beyond expectations that are already priced in.

Fingers crossed!

 

[cove]

Looking good Gold Member!
Gold just went under $1200 US and the AUD is 0.8907 with thirteen and a half hours to go.

 

[sumthinfornuthin]

Looking good Gold Member!
Gold just went under $1200 US and the AUD is 0.8907 with thirteen and a half hours to go.

15 hours to go is AUS might be a late run as the value of something ( ??) rises in Australia.

I reckon the long term is heading to 85c US and will oscillate around that. I hope I am wrong as I woul;d like ro see parity but think those days are long gone.

just look at the Euro & UK cross rates !!

 

[cove]

Bloomberg Egg Spurts are saying 80 cents in 2014 so today is such a bargain if that happens.