What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

Foreigner said:
What are the FX pundits predicting, in the short term?
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In short term trading terms, it will most likely continue to sink (whether rationally or irrationally) until it hits the next support level. Wouldn't try to look at where that might be myself - I don't call shots, and I don't like catching falling knives.
 
I had one of my regular meetings with the private bank arm of a major bank today and we discussed the currency. They have a lot of people who spend a lot of time on this issue and their view is that the next six months is pretty unclear but, at least after that time, they expect the AUD to fall further against the USD. *Potentially* up to 30% further.
 
Craigie said:
94 sounds right, 25% chance higher. 75% it will fall from there.

Reasoning: it's a classic break-out(market goes down through 94 to 89) then pullback (up to 94) then continuation (at least 89, probably more mid 80's)

All IMO
(FROM 9/09/14)
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AUDUSDWeekly.jpg

I'd say 70% probability we'll stall here with a bottom of .8650's roughly. It'll probably bounce around between here and up a bit.

BUT if it gets under .8650's then watch out 0.80.
 
Homer said:
I had one of my regular meetings with the private bank arm of a major bank today and we discussed the currency. They have a lot of people who spend a lot of time on this issue and their view is that the next six months is pretty unclear but, at least after that time, they expect the AUD to fall further against the USD. *Potentially* up to 30% further.
Click to expand...

Historically only two Australian based banks (of any type) regularly made money trading FX as opposed to talking about it. One of those no longer exists. Two of the big 4 no longer do principal FX trades due to their abysmal record.

If you look at BRW forecasts you see the herd mentality in action.
That said, the number of Australian companies 'speculating' rather than hedging their FX exposures (Qantas perhaps...) is high. The impact on NPAT is potentially disastrous (as has happened in previous times where FX losses wiped out multiple years of operating earnings).

Historical rate rolls are a way to hide it for a while until the bank's auditors start questioning the size and duration of the HRRs.

So, a useful approach is to think of an exchange rate like a super tanker - once its heading in one direction it takes a lot to alter it. There may well be a lot of noise as the waves break against the ship but that does not stop its progress.
 
RAM said:
How do you get the image into your post? Try as I might I cannot get it to work.
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After i hit "reply with quote" i'm given a row of options above the reply box. 3rd from the end is "insert image" with a tree icon. I went there. The image is PNG format
 
RAM said:
Historically only two Australian based banks (of any type) regularly made money trading FX as opposed to talking about it. One of those no longer exists. Two of the big 4 no longer do principal FX trades due to their abysmal record.
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Perhaps, but I wasn't talking to the bank's forex trading people. To clarify, this was the private wealth arm of the bank. I only mentioned it as we went through their report today and I thought it might be helpful in this thread.
 
Homer said:
I had one of my regular meetings with the private bank arm of a major bank today and we discussed the currency. They have a lot of people who spend a lot of time on this issue and their view is that the next six months is pretty unclear but, at least after that time, they expect the AUD to fall further against the USD. *Potentially* up to 30% further.
Click to expand...
What's their prediction for the one miler at Moodie Ponds?
 
Craigie said:
After i hit "reply with quote" i'm given a row of options above the reply box. 3rd from the end is "insert image" with a tree icon. I went there. The image is PNG format
Click to expand...

Thanks for that. It's so obvious now that you've pointed it out for me (face slowly grows red at rookie oversight!.)
 

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