What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[drross]

Good on them. They're lucky to have work at all in rural Australia given its youth unemployment rate, let alone what must be relatively high paying work to fund living, world travel, and saving tens of thousands a year to buy a house.

But a substantial proportion of young people are not, and will not be, as fortunate.

It'd be nice to see society put more thought into their plight than "stop whining".

there are so many jobs in the bush, especially if you're willing to 'get your hands dirty' and i'm not talking just physical work..cost of living is often used as a barrier to going bush. of course rents and fuel costs are often alot higher but they save on entertainment expenses -eating out/movies etc. they are all enjoying their time out west

 

[drsmithy]

What you are speaking of is far different to what drsmithy was stating. You are speaking of the economy and economic issues as a whole whereas drsmithy was targeting all those nasty people who are striving to own their family home, or choose to invest in rental accommodation.

That's the second time you've completely misrepresented what I said.

The whole economic issue has been discussed at length casually and fervently everywhere from the public bar down at the local to parliament and there are many different opinions.....yours and mine are just two. I don't object to a well rounded discussion on the economy...the good, bad and the ugly......I do however dislike people batting on about one issue in isolation with absolute rubbish statements.

If you want a well-rounded discussion, then participate in one. Don't just write people off as "whining" because you don't like what they're saying.

Property prices are such a massive part of the entire economy they are more than worth a standalone discussion. They affect basically everything.

I work with many young people (apprentices between 15 and 20 generally) and most are pretty much exactly as my generation was at their age.....happy, funny, smart, optimistic.

That doesn't change the vastly different landscape they're headed into.

That's yet another advantage of home ownership as an investment......it's also a great form of saving. Hard to remove a few bricks from the wall to sell to raise cash for a holiday.

You can't possibly be serious. "Equity mate" ring any bells ?

It is absurdly - dangerously - simple to financially "remove a few bricks from the wall to sell to raise cash for a holiday". Refinancing, redraws, offset accounts - all these things are specifically designed so people can "tap the wealth" in their overinflated house values to pay for things like holidays and new cars.

I also work in a third world country where basic human needs are often just a pipe dream. That tends to bring the "woe is us" whining brigade shapely into focus as the negative influence they actually are.

Ah, yes, the "we don't need to try any fix any problems here, look how bad things are over there" argument.

That's just another form of racing to the bottom.

Our employment rates are good, our wages are good, our conditions are good, our social services are good, our opportunities in life are great.....

All that is going to change. That's the point.

 

[Sprucegoose]

In the last 12mths gold down, property up

Gold typically works well in times of low inflation and global instability (eg. GFC).

It sucks during boom time as gold doesn't earn a yield (dividend, interest, rent)

Which property ?

 

[drsmithy]

there are so many jobs in the bush, especially if you're willing to 'get your hands dirty' and i'm not talking just physical work..

Not according to the data. Rural unemployment is substantially higher than city unemployment.

 

[Deleted member 29185]

That's the second time you've completely misrepresented what I said.

I actually don't believe you know what you represent. It shifts, but back to the point, I was replying to someone else, not you because I am not going to partake in a conversation with a revolving door. Sorry.

 

[Cheatah]

I actually don't believe you know what you represent. It shifts, but back to the point, I was replying to someone else, not you because I am not going to partake in a conversation with a revolving door. Sorry.

swanning_it your reply to me that "drsmithy was targeting all those nasty people who are striving to own their family home" was obviously incorrect, that is not what drsmithy was saying at all. You lose credibility when misrepresenting other's views.

And you've offered no real response to what either myself or drsmithy are saying other than reminding us how good Australia has it at the moment, and some comment about the third world which is irrelevant to this discussion.

 

[Deleted member 29185]

you've offered no real response to what either myself or drsmithy are saying

Actually I have. The response I gave you was to point out your argument is different from what drsmithy was stating. I don't particularly wish to argue the pros and cons of tax change with you (I actually agree the tax system could be changed) but all my points are valid, regardless of whether you wish to acknowledge that or not and if you read yours and the other posts you'll see that they are at odds as well........"property prices basically affect everything" was one claim.........so you see, all those nasty people pushing up property prices (because that's what market pressures do) effect everything else according to drsmithy. The tax, the wages, the price of a Big Mac, the social security budget, the health budget, the education budget, renewable energy targets, the price of fuel, whether Santa arrived his year, hang everything is the fault of property prices and those selfish people who are prepared to pay the price the market dictates.

and some comment about the third world which is irrelevant to this discussion.

So my comment about a situation overseas is "irrelevant" but your comment about a situation overseas is fair game is it? May I ask why the UK social security outlay (your comment) and a third world social security outlay (my comment) is relevant for you but totally irrelevant for me?

 

[Bolthead]

I thought this was a thread about the Australian dollar...

 

[cove]

Bolthead just buy the Aussie dollar early and you won't have to worry if the currency drops to half a US dollar or three to make a British pound.

 

[drross]

Not according to the data. Rural unemployment is substantially higher than city unemployment.

and recent experience says otherwise

 

[Jacques Vert]

Would a moderator be so kind as to remove all these irrelevant, coughy posts so we can back on topic?

 

[Deleted member 29185]

I thought this was a thread about the Australian dollar...

Would a moderator be so kind as to remove all these irrelevant, coughy posts so we can back on topic?

It has to be on topic if you believe what's been written

Property prices are such a massive part of the entire economy ... They affect basically everything.

Wouldn't that mean the AU exchange rate as well? Just asking.

 

[whatmeworry]

Kiwi getting to parity with the aussie.

The New Zealand dollar is edging towards parity with the Australian dollar. On Wednesday morning the kiwi even briefly kissed A95.93c. Only last November it was languishing down around the A88c.

Kiwi dollar: hot currency finds its wings

Greek may be thrown out of the Euro zone.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is prepared to let Greece leave the eurozone if Greeks elect a government that jettisons the country's current austerity course, Germany's Der Spiegel news weekly reported Saturday.

Merkel prepared to let Greece exit eurozone: report

 

[Cheatah]

Greece is interesting. The EU/Merkel will always say that they are prepared for Greece to leave the Eurozone, right up to the moment they change their mind.
Greece is a small part of the European economy but nobody really knows the impact of Greece defaulting on their euro denominated debts(which will have to happen once they leave the euro). European banks are still not in great shape(but who they have hedged their Greek exposure to nobody knows - US banks? Asian hedge funds? Australian super funds? Nobody knows. Probably all over)

However, the bigger issue is how the people of Italy & Spain react - if Greece leaves the euro, and the world doesn't come to an end, their will be huge pressures on left wing parties in Italy and Spain to "do a Greece". Leave the euro, convert all the county's debts to whatever new currencies those countries will be using(ie lira) and life continues with a hugely reduced debt burden, allowing those economies to grow.(Italy's economy is smaller than it was in 2000!)
Yes the new currencies will be significantly weaker than the euro, but that is a small price to pay.

My personal view is the EU/Merkel will continue to say Greece leaving the Euro isnt important, as a negotiating ploy. Once they realize Greece is serious about heading for the exit they will quickly try and change their stance. It is likely to be problematic though, if they give Greece too much Italy and Spain will want the same, if the EU dont give Greece enough they will leave the euro, and Italy and Spain will be likely to follow.

Ultimately in democracy's you cant hold a currency union together if is causes severe recessions/depressions in the countries that make up the union, both Greece and Italy have suffered worse than they did during the Great Depression. Spain isnt much better. Why should those people want to stay when it causes them and their families so much hardship? So they can remain "good Europeans?" Not likely!

IMO it is almost certain Greece will leave, and greater than 50/50 that both Italy and Spain will leave as well.

Uncharted waters, historically when there are major developments like this the AUD doesn't do very well. Look at Sep/Oct 2008 but its impossible to predict.

 

[NFF]

What will happen to Euro if Greece leaves ?

 

[Cheatah]

What will happen to Euro if Greece leaves ?

Its uncharted territory, however given the extreme uncertainty the Euro is likely to decline. Until there is clarity that Greece leaving wont cause major European banks to become insolvent(or until they get bailed out, again!) the Euro is likely to come under pressure. Extreme pressure if it looks like Italy/Spain will also leave - but if that happens a lot of currencies are likely to come under pressure against the USD and Gold. That would be a good time to buy some very cheap assets in Europe and the UK!

If those 3 countries leave medium/long term the Euro should do well(if it survives!) as it will be made up of a core like Germany and Benelux countries. If anything without the legacy of southern European countries it would become too strong for Germany to remain the export powerhouse that it is.

And don't forget about France. they are only doing well economically compared to Greece/Spain/Italy!

 

[JohnK]

People make their own luck.

Are you saying it's unrealistic to expect a golf ball to end up on the fairway after hitting a tree out of bounds?

 

[PLANT]

I need the wind factor component to make the call on above post.... What's sportsbet say on the odds

 

[Bolthead]

Little side story... We have recently sold our house and my wife this morning was going through one of the cupboards cleaning out all the cough we have collected over the years. She stumbled onto our travel wallet back in 2000 when we took the kids to the USA. It was during the Olympics and hence we got cheap airfares for $970 per adult. It was cheap back then and almost 15 years later not much difference. Anyway we had the bank receipt from the foreign exchange and we got $1.00 AUD to $0.52 USD. Easy to convert in our head... LOL

 

[ellen10]

WE too went in 2000 and we would just say to the kids "just double it" to work out the cost.

But shopping was still cheap back then.
But activities so much more expensive for a family.