What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[JohnK]

I would say jetlagger is more so referring to the fact that more Aussies are going overseas because it's so cheap....

Ahhh! The shazzas and dazzas are not likely to infest the places I visit so they can be someone else's problem....

 

[jetlagger]

Isn't Europe too refined for the Shazzas and Dazzas? Plus, JQ and TT don't fly here :mrgreen:

+1
Also.. Probably have some difficultly understanding what they are trying to explain in some 'foreign tongue" - hey mate..

 

[jetlagger]

Ahhh! The shazzas and dazzas are not likely to infest the places I visit so they can be someone else's problem....

Mmm.. Sure overheard the sounds of Thailand in its glory at the local 'Boganville pub" in Queensland last time I walked past.

 

[Flashback]

+1
Also.. Probably have some difficultly understanding what they are trying to explain in some 'foreign tongue" - hey mate..

Hm, although they have accepted me over here ..... :mrgreen:

 

[Mal]

Hm, although they have accepted me over here ..... :mrgreen:

If you're in the right place there are more Aussie bogans than locals... my trip out to Shepard's bush didn't allay that theory.

Sent from my GT-I9100 using AustFreqFly

 

[Limewood]

Just went out to my old tin shed, found my crystal ball, its not looking good and rusting away, gave it a rub and out popped the genie, she says "its anyones guess", but seriously I've been snapping up a few grands worth when its over 1.04 and even more over 1.5 to AUD.

 

[Aussie_flyer]

Are we talking about the AUD or whether members want to feel they are a superior 'class' to other Australians?

 

[cove]

Switched some $AUD into pounds and dollars today and we dealt at 1.0395 for $US and .6512 for GBP. No wonder our export demand has shrunk so much.

 

[jetlagger]

Switched some $AUD into pounds and dollars today and we dealt at 1.0395 for $US and .6512 for GBP. No wonder our export demand has shrunk so much.

Well done. favourable rate.
USD buy rate at Westpac BNE city today @ 0.997
Best I've seen this week USD buy is 1.025

 

[whatmeworry]

Isn't Europe too refined for the Shazzas and Dazzas? Plus, JQ and TT don't fly here :mrgreen:

A bit too far for the bogans, plus they don't talk Australian in Europe!

 

[amaroo]

Switched some $AUD into pounds and dollars today and we dealt at 1.0395 for $US and .6512 for GBP. No wonder our export demand has shrunk so much.

I think we might have to get use to it......no matter what the Reserve Bank does to the rates.

It appears - other players are now in control of the AUD.

 

[JohnK]

Mmm.. Sure overheard the sounds of Thailand in its glory at the local 'Boganville pub" in Queensland last time I walked past.

Not where I go.

Are we talking about the AUD or whether members want to feel they are a superior 'class' to other Australians?

Either.

And I know you mean well but some of the ones I see overseas deserve to be locked away never to be seen again. And I am being really really nice....

 

[cove]

I have put a floor under our currency by buying this week. Now the only way is up!

 

[Isochronous]

With talk the IMF is going to add the AUD and CAD to its list of reserve currencies, we may well be entering a period of a higher average AUD valuation. Even if we see a drop-off (which would largely need to be linked to a recovery of the US debt situation), maybe we'll be seeing 80-90c as the norm ratehr than the 65-75c of the past.

 

[amaroo]

Interesting article in the Weekend Edition of AFF - thanks VA Australia's 2nd largest export in the 2012 Fin year.......is.........paper or Gov bonds:shock: 1st is Iron Ore at $85Bn then Bonds at $58Bn then Coal at $48Bn.

Good for cheap Gov debt - borrowing costs have fallen to record lows (who said Swan doesn't know what he's doing).......Good for a high dollar

Looks like the dollar is going nowhere but up - for the foreseeable future.

 

[whatmeworry]

With the fiscal cliff in the US looming, does anybody have predictions if Aussie will go up, down or sideways?

Anybody know why the Aussie has recently dipped?

 

[QF WP]

Amaroo's comment above on the AFR article (which I also read) is spot on why the AUD won't fall. Regardless that the AUD is seen as a quasi-commodity play and certain parts of the mining sector have seen a softening in their base metal prices, the fact is that the Govt is bringing in Billions by offering bonds (with a Triple A rating), at rates unable to be obtained in Japan, USA and most other countries - with no end of the appetite from either counterparty in sight. Even taking into account inflation and the possible losses on the forex market, a positive real rates of return is very attractive to cash holders who otherwise would obtain perhaps a 0.25% nominal yield and a negative real rate of return when factoring inflation.

Thus I think it will hover on average at $1.05 but trade in a range of +-2c depending in the relevant strength of weakness of the USD and the outlook for China's growth rate to climb back to between 8 to 10%.

Haven't looked at the markets for a week, but weakness in the AUD will be due to strength in US (markets thinking the fiscal cliff will be averted by agreement between Democrats and Republicans) or continuing weakness in either Australian or Chinese numbers (growth, unemployment going up, retail trade or manufacturing down)

 

[cove]

The $AUD traded down 2 cents over XMAS break. When everyone thinks it is immune to a full on correction then that will be when the Aussie dollar will plunge. Our current Government has lent those bonds out to the whole world and that has made Australia a hostage rather than a winner. It really is time we employed a Treasurer who can count.

 

[coyote25]

As long as the US Treasury keeps printing extra money to devalue their currency and their Reserve keeps rates near nil it's hard to see a huge drop anytime soon which the exception of irrational swings on the fiscal cliff.

It's really a USA story on the direction of the dollar. If the US economy collapses due to the automatic spending cuts starting to balance their budget (they have huge structural budget problems they need way more corrections) then the 'dumb' money will rush back to US Treasuries once again for the so called safety and our dollar will drop 3-4 cents.

Only basing this on the last 2 years not what a rational market should do, a rational market should abandon the US bonds ASAP as printing money is effectively devaluing your investment. As much as we get caught up on our Fed Government debt (vs GDP) the USA has huge problems with debt and liabilities.

My guess is a 2-3 drop to around parity but by Feb we will be back at $1.05. But really given half the experts get it wrong you might as well just get a random number generator

 

[Sprucegoose]

Parity is now part of long term pricing psyche.

As an Example look at the pricing of the new A Class Merc. FX impacts here and it is priced in the mid range of VW Golf.

A new model is always the most opportune time to recalibrate long term pricing