What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

cove said:
The $AUD traded down 2 cents over XMAS break. When everyone thinks it is immune to a full on correction then that will be when the Aussie dollar will plunge. Our current Government has lent those bonds out to the whole world and that has made Australia a hostage rather than a winner. It really is time we employed a Treasurer who can count.
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All going well next year swan will be reporting to centrelink.

These fools will be handing out more money they don't have early next year as a election bribe dressed up as a 'back to school bonus'

No wonder the surplus is unachievable under this lot. One helluva pipe dream
 
Sprucegoose said:
All going well next year swan will be reporting to centrelink.
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I'd better warn my local Centrelink offices then - he's my local Federal member and I still haven't found anybody who voted for him :o

No matter what he does, he won't affect the AUD. Unless they trash the economy before the (at worst) December election.
 
We are planning multiple overseas trips to take full advantage of a high Australian dollar.
Blighty as Tony Hancock calls it and Europe are on the list.
If it seems to be too good to be true then it probably is so grab the opportunity if you can.
 
Well I have to jump to Wayne Swan's defence.but dont get used to it Wayne.there is virtually nothing he can do about the strength of the Aussie dollar.
The aussie is the 5th most traded currency globally.The US,Europe,japan are furiously increasing their money supply hence weakening their currencies.China has a loose correlation to the $US hence their currency is lower than it should be.
So could Wayne tell the RBA to start generating more $A-well they probably are already doing it.Have a peg to the $US like China-so would people,banks from OS still be willing to send money here?Without foreign capital we would be in all sorts of trouble.

So I agree with Cove.Fortunately travel is what we do.Prepaying a lot of bookings in case the bubble bursts.
 
Sprucegoose said:
All going well next year swan will be reporting to centrelink.

These fools will be handing out more money they don't have early next year as a election bribe dressed up as a 'back to school bonus'

No wonder the surplus is unachievable under this lot. One helluva pipe dream
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Labour handed out alot of middle class bribes but it all started will with Howard and Costello.
 
It should trade between 80 and 120 this year.
Your job this year is to try to get the high numbers rather than the low ones.
 
Sprucegoose said:
When we had the money!!
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The public service actually advised the coalition not to spend because of inflation whereas they advocated Labour to spend.

My gripe is, the Libs should have started have spending on crucial infrastructure like rail in MEL and SYD and a fast rail between MEL to BNE much earlier.

Governments at the state and federal level need to grow some balls, us voters will back them if they do the right thing!
 
whatmeworry said:
nd.

My gripe is, the Libs should have started have spending on crucial infrastructure like rail in MEL and SYD and a fast rail between MEL to BNE much earlier.
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What is crucial about that? Perhaps invest in the infrastructure that helps generate money. The North West of WA is screaming out for infrastructure.
 
cove said:
This interest rate difference is driving our dollar up.
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Precisely.

The forward FX is based on the forward int rate differential.

This is the most basic lesson to remember is that you can forecast the future rate based on future int rate forecast
 
whatmeworry said:
The public service actually advised the coalition not to spend because of inflation whereas they advocated Labour to spend.

My gripe is, the Libs should have started have spending on crucial infrastructure like rail in MEL and SYD and a fast rail between MEL to BNE much earlier.

Governments at the state and federal level need to grow some balls, us voters will back them if they do the right thing!
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Fast rail from Mel to Bne??

Where is the feasibility for that?

Are you suggesting the gov should get into the rail business?
 
Sprucegoose said:
Fast rail from Mel to Bne??

Where is the feasibility for that?

Are you suggesting the gov should get into the rail business?
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At least MEL to SYD via CBR and then maybe BNE.

Feasibility studies are a cop out from the vision this country needs. (Ok sometimes they are needed ;))

For example the fast broadband network is now accepted despite the benefits might not be realised for decades...
 
Sprucegoose said:
Precisely.

The forward FX is based on the forward int rate differential.

This is the most basic lesson to remember is that you can forecast the future rate based on future int rate forecast
Click to expand...

The only problem is that model is busted.US interest rates haven't changed in the last 15 months whereas ours have dropped from 4.75% to 3%.
RBA: Cash Rate Target

And many agree that the outlook is for further cuts in 2013.ANZ is predicting 2% by the end of 2013-
ANZ slashes RBA cash rate forecast

The problem is money printing by the large established economies-USA,Europe and Japan hence deflating their currency.
 
Forecasting is generally taking a dart and throwing it at the available options.

IF China can chug along without slowing its fixed asset construction too much then the pacific peso will prob continue to be one of the least ugly currency in the market for a while yet. Our wicked sisters the looney and Reral are also looking pretty hot compared to the worn out euro and the sickly looking yankee.

Currencies are just a relative game. All can't fall in value, all can't rise in value. Unless the RBA decides the AUD is too high for the fundamentals and will do more harm than good, well I expect it's going to stay higher for longer until the extreme money printing from the top 4 economic regions finally fails or is reversed. I mean, you'd have to be very desperate to give your money to the US govt for 10 years and accept a rate of return that's less than current inflation and is guaranteed to loose you a lot of money if held for the full term.

It's interesting that the sky is falling wails of the Opposition about the budget deficit seems to not have deterred any of the 20 odd central banks from around the world from continually buying up Govt debt and pushing up the value of the AUD.
 
Thank goodness it recovered! I was just about to move some more money from AU -> UK and it's been hovering around .65. Not as great as the .68 I got over the Olympics but still good. Typical the day I went to do it the rate had crashed to .63. Glad I held off and will move some now I think!
 
Flashware said:
Thank goodness it recovered! I was just about to move some more money from AU -> UK and it's been hovering around .65. Not as great as the .68 I got over the Olympics but still good. Typical the day I went to do it the rate had crashed to .63. Glad I held off and will move some now I think!
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And to think the Barmy army used to merrily chant '3 to 1' '3 to 1' in an economically superior tone to us a few years ago when on tour and in form!!!
 
I think we can get tickets to the cricket in July for the test match in the old country.
We really need to get hold of those Ashes even though the English love having the bragging rights.
 

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