Will Coronavirus push fares down on carriers especially CX, JL?

[Max Samuels]

Un

A number of multi-national (esp. US headquartered) companies are getting staff to delay/cancel travel, and if not, then are heavily restricting routes.

By all accounts with the various transit point “bans” some companies are now issuing, QF must be making a killing on QF9/10 at the moment......

Until the virus gets to Perth.....

 

[Batterytraveller]

Slightly off topic. I have a friend booked to come down to Oz next month on China Southern. The planes are still flying but as she is not an Aussie citizen the won't be able to transit china, she's still waiting to find out what Chian Southern will offer her, but it looks like she'll be out of luck for anything but a refund or a date change.

Anyway that's not really the point. Given that China Southern, China Eastern, Air China and others are flying planes into Australia on a daily basis. Who is on these planes? Is it just a few Aussies in face masks who happened to book a cheap return to Europe on one of these airlines month ago and it's their only way home?

 

[AVM]

That's what I'm implying. Fares have to go down*.

* Or airlines have to offer something more to customers to entice them to purchase (eg a Qantas DSC offer).

Qantas are offering double status points however the fare options very high especially considering the abundance of empty seats on Expert Flyer. I have looked at PER FRA return in June, Saver fare is around $3200 using Qantas into LHR - same applies in November

Post automatically merged: Feb 25, 2020

Qantas are offering double status points however the fare options very high especially considering the abundance of empty seats on Expert Flyer. I have looked at PER FRA return in June, Saver fare is around $3200 using Qantas into LHR - same applies in November

I think Qantas have put fares up during the double status points offer - not sure if they will come down after but the seat maps show heaps of empty seats

 

[Timtammi]

she's still waiting to find out what Chian Southern will offer her, but it looks like she'll be out of luck for anything but a refund or a date change.

I hope she has better luck than me. I had a China Southern flight as part of a multi-country trip to China, Korea and Taiwan that got cancelled due to the virus. All the other airlines have refunded or have promised refunds but I am STILL trying to chase China Southern down. They dont answer the phone, or emails other than getting cut and paste responses. I think they are short staffed, still half closed and/or completely overwhelmed. I have no idea if/when I will get that refund despite the fact that we are entitled to it. This has been going on for several weeks now. I think I have sent about 20 emails so far.

 

[VPS]

Qantas are offering double status points however the fare options very high especially considering the abundance of empty seats on Expert Flyer. I have looked at PER FRA return in June, Saver fare is around $3200 using Qantas into LHR - same applies in November

Post automatically merged: Feb 25, 2020

I think Qantas have put fares up during the double status points offer - not sure if they will come down after but the seat maps show heaps of empty seats

They always put prices up during DSC and there is usually a sale just before

 

[Pushka]

Today is the last day to book QF DSC, and I almost did it.... then I read the headlines about Italy considering closing its borders between neighbouring countries such as France.... and it made me wonder: is there a decent chance that my vacation to Europe in June may not go ahead at all?

I posted similarly a couple of hours ago. Is this worth the chase?

 

[PineappleSkip]

I'm on CX's mailing list and haven't seen them offering any sales. They have cut 90% of chinal flights and heavily cut other routes as well, similarly, but more drastically than QF. I think the problem with sales in circumstances like these is that they stimulate demand from discretionary travellers, and many of these are very wary of booking anything right now because of the large (and growing) unknowns. What a sale would do is reduce revenue from non-discretionary travellers who can take advantage of same.

That said QF have a tendency to bung on a sale of some sort just after a DSC offer closes.

cheers skip

 

[Max Samuels]

That said QF have a tendency to bung on a sale of some sort just after a DSC offer closes.

How is that not some kind of anti-competitive price-gouging? God I am sick of them

 

[PineappleSkip]

Don’t quite understand what the price gouging is. One promo followed by another?

Found this SCMP clip on youtube on Cathay featuring video of dozens of its jets parked at HKG. Quite amazing they haven’t folded already with all their travails
SCMP Cathay

cheers skip

 

[Ekka]

Cathay to LHR return via HKG in August is looking extremely unwise. If only DFAT wouid say so.
How long do you have to wait for the obvious?

 

[Max Samuels]

Don’t quite understand what the price gouging is. One promo followed by another?

There is a lot written about this in the "anti-competitive behaviour" stuff the Aust Gov produces, I know in the industry I work in, if you double the price of something, then announce a 2-for-1 sale (where the customer is really buying for the original price), it is considered to be misleading and unethical, and probably illegal.

As some members have suggested, if Qantas deliberately jacks up the prices/changes availability of certain fare classes prior to a DSC promo, then drops them back..... I don't know... sounds a bit like the example I just gave.

 

[Batterytraveller]

I’m seeing sub 6k business fares on JL/FI/OWA to points in Europe in March generally if I can get a fare with a 6 in front I’m happy a month out so this is 500-1000 better than normal. Although this is with some long layovers and airport switching in Tokyo. If you want the quick connections prices appear to be holding up. So maybe some price recrimination but no fire sale yet.

 

[PineappleSkip]

There is a lot written about this in the "anti-competitive behaviour" stuff the Aust Gov produces, I know in the industry I work in, if you double the price of something, then announce a 2-for-1 sale (where the customer is really buying for the original price), it is considered to be misleading and unethical, and probably illegal.

As some members have suggested, if Qantas deliberately jacks up the prices/changes availability of certain fare classes prior to a DSC promo, then drops them back..... I don't know... sounds a bit like the example I just gave.

Ah, you mean this maybe?
Two price comparison advertising

Except that in the case of the DSC offer, then the sale, in both cases they are doing a promotion to buy, either bonus SCs or a price discount. Mind you, $12,000 or whatever they charge for AUS-LHR sometimes is what I would call a gouge. I don’t love SCs that much...


cheers skip

 

[juddles]

To the Op, who's contributions and view I always enjoy, if not always completely in line with my own

You want a crystal ball? Well I will give you my view, my "two cents": (and from me it will become apparent that two cents buys a lot of ideas )

First up, I have absolutely no doubt that this Corona virus will be officially declared as a global pandemic within the next two to four weeks. I think this will be sooner rather than later - so my best guestimate is within about ten days - the delay or difficulty being due to the recalcitrant countries where it is breaking through from (Italy and Iran specifically - but there are no doubt others that we do not even know about yet) I have some "insider" info on this, but you do not need this if you just understand what is openly in the media - basket-case countries like Iran already have it, and they are sending it on to countries with even far less chance of control than themselves, where it will go ballistic and remain. So trust me, this thing will go completely global.

How will airlines react? Yes, some airlines are withdrawing fleet and routes, to compensate for the downturn, but this is, as like most other reactions to the virus, short term action still hoping for a rapid return to the "norm". Which will not happen. And the cost to any business of having equipment parked is hideous - and the airline industry in particular has such slim margins of survival to start with. But, and with airlines there is always a "but", this is an industry that is not purely commercial - in that flag-carriers can get (often?) an extraordinary level of support from governments to help them not fold. National pride, whatever - they get support to stay alive more than most industries.

So what does this mean specifically to your question? I think that airfares will have extremely favourable discounts over the coming 2 to 4 months (here I am really getting into the fine print with my crystal ball) Perhaps an indication of this is the recent appearance of stellar value Aussie - USA flights in economy. There is a reason why Qantas are offerring such wonderful prices without first doing a huge marketing game - they are desperate. I think that QF, as many airlines are, are very competent in their strategies. We on AFF are amateurs. So they will do things in stages. First up they are quietly releasing cheap Y fares. Simply to try to lock in advance purchases by tourists. At these prices the cost of cancellations is a major proportion of the cash value itself! A DSC promo now is great planning - again trying to lock in customers despite the unknown of the future.

Next will come real price drops on the premium cabins - so far delayed as at yet, without Corona being a confirmed pandemic, many affluent or business travellers keep doing what they have to or want to do. But each day, as the virus becomes more of an issue, these travel patterns will also decrease. So in the next two to four months, prices will drop. Airlines simply cannot just keep parking up aircraft - this is a lurk that can only be doen for a month or so before the overall economics and staff issues force them into a reality that no airline wants - real and complete downsizing. It is a bit like a sheep farmer in Australia with drought - you cannot simply halve or decimate the flock, then bounce back the next year - it takes time - much time, to regain the numbers when things eventually improve.

But the window of cheap airfares will, IMHO, be fairly short - a month or two. Because once Corona is truly international, and every one has it, there is suddenly a point reached where travel restrictions are meaningless, and the airline industry will return to approximately "normal". No point cancelling an intended trip to Wuhan if you are catching coronavirus at your local 7-11 There will be an ongoing and slow-to-dissipate period where the sheer pain of this virus keeps people spending less - due to being sick, the general economy/share market etc still being in a low period. And this could help keep airfares down for a while.

At the end of the day, or rather my crystal ball consultation: expect some really amazing offers on international travel over the next few months.

 

[Max Samuels]

To the Op, who's contributions and view I always enjoy, if not always completely in line with my own

At the end of the day, or rather my crystal ball consultation: expect some really amazing offers on international travel over the next few months.

Thank you! On both counts

I must have the same crystal ball that you do as I figure kind of the same. $12k on QF in J is TOO MUCH even with no virus. Should that fall to 50% of that fare (to be in line with JL, CX etc), then that is more reasonable.

As an aside, I too received some "inside" info which more or less said "don't listen to what people/media/talking head experts etc SAY, look at what actual governments are DOING".... and the difference is quite staggering.... on one hand you have Mr Expert Talking Head from Whatever University saying "it's just the same as the common flu don't panic", meanwhile governments are closing borders which suggests they may know something we do not.

Furthermore, I personally know of a family stationed in Beijing working for the Embassy of a certain first world country (no suggested cure of peppercorns under the tongue from this country)... anyway, about a month ago they were ordered to the airport for immediate evac - didn't get the chance to even go home and pack anything - including passports. Temporary passports were issued to them at the airport and then they were flown to some quarantine place in Spain.... pretty drastic actions on behalf of that government over "nothing"....

 

[disruptivedolphin]

my crystal ball consultation

I hope you've had your crystal ball professionally polished over the past few weeks.

a trivial blip now (seriously - a couple of hundred dead??!!)

Is it just me, or is the whole Coronavirus thing starting to fizzle out?

truly non-news

This Coronavirus is a puppy. As in in a world where diseases have always existed, this one is so very mild.

 

[juddles]

I hope you've had your crystal ball professionally polished over the past few weeks.

As always, it was the alarmist media that I always battle - this is not a particularly nasty virus - with a vastly lower mortality rates compared to SARS etc. Yet the media driven hysteria spreads fear. And hence such drastic measures as closing country borders, etc. 100,000s of thousands die each year of influenza but noone closes borders for that.

I do not fear the virus, I fear the effect on travelling in general, and to a lesser extent the economic harm that this whole saga will have. First the media made us believe this was a lethal thing, then they moved on to (and provoked) the gripping story of the fight to "contain" the deadly virus, and now they will enjoy the grand finale, when they get to announce that the containment has failed and we have a PANDEMIC, where lots of people get to have a sniffle.

 

[Max Samuels]

As always, it was the alarmist media that I always battle - this is not a particularly nasty virus - with a vastly lower mortality rates compared to SARS etc.

This is where I struggle to understand the "reality". The odds of the young healthy doctor that "discovered" it, dying from it, seem pretty wild, yeah? And I have heard some really contradictory stats from "experts" about the mortality of it compared to the normal flu!

 

[clifford]

As someone who is over 60 and suffers from the usual "mild" ailments which can accompany age (eg hypertension), I am much more concerned about this new virus than flu.

I can have a flu vaccination which gives me a good chance of avoiding serious symptoms, but can do nothing to prevent catching the corona virus, apart from maybe moving to Mars.

Perhaps Juddles might like to tell us how bad the new virus really is once he's caught it and recovered from it.

 

[ozfflyer]

I am travelling to Paris in June and still have not purchased a ticket. Keeping in mind that June is pretty much peak season in Europe, I checked today and I can get a rtn MEL-CDG on CX for $1300 - which is pretty cheap for Europe in general on a good airline, and especially for June.

My question is this: do you guys think that fares will continue to fall? I am particularly interested in PE/J maybe F. I recall during SARS how people pretty much avoided HKG and CX prices were sooooooo low. In fact, that is how I was first introduced to CX - and how I learned that QF was not the best airline in the world at all (I was young - forgive me). And I have never looked back!

Anyway, I know it is a bit of a gamble, but if anyone has any inside knowledge.... when do you think would be the best time to buy a ticket in the current situation we find ourselves?

there might be a few headline type fares, you know $800 to EU return, but there won't be many of them & won't be at busy times. Some people seem to think when they see a super low fare that there are 100s or 1000s of seats at that price. , when there aren't. Luckily for airlines many business types still have to travel & can sometimes pay 4, 5 or 6 times the cheapest fare to fly in economy. Sure their tickets might be fully flexible or even fully refundable.

Airlines don't want to cut schedules but if they have to they will. eg. how many times a day does CX fly HKG/LON ? They could cut to 1/day if had to & if necessary if connections at HKG become awful, provide free accom for night or more. CX could get deals from hell with almost any HKG hotel right now.