Will Coronavirus push fares down on carriers especially CX, JL?

[drron]

The mortality rate is skewed because at least 5 of the deaths come from a nursing home-ie old and frail patients.

 

[Max Samuels]

The mortality rate is skewed because at least 5 of the deaths come from a nursing home-ie old and frail patients.

So what are you saying? High mortality rate? Low mortality rate?

 

[PineappleSkip]

And it seems that an outbreak can be spreading silently in a community and no-one notices until there is a cluster of pneumonia cases, deaths, cases turning up in returnees to other countries. Not surprising if half the infected are asymptomatic and most others have very mild symptoms. Deaths are noteworthy but lots of infections would never be found.

In Italy the numbers went from handful to hundreds in a week. I'm guessing as contacts were traced and presumably tested and others came forward. 16 cases had been found when the first died in Padua, but obviously the death rate in Italy isn't 1/16. I'd expect the deaths in Washington to result in many more cases being uncovered in WA very quickly as contacts are traced.

BTW I notice that the latest case in Queensland is claimed to have come from Dubai. So did one of the new Indian cases.

cheers skip

 

[MollyJones]

I think the figures out of the US will be skewed as well. My daughter works in a public health role and was telling me that it will cost US $3000 for anyone there to be tested. Which means that only those with good health insurance cover can afford to be tested. That population is also more likely to be able to access good medical care and are more likely to be in good health in the first place.
Damned lies and statistics, can’t trust any of the figures.

 

[Max Samuels]

Finally starting to see some movement in the premium cabins..... JAL F is $10k-ish (although some sectors in J still pretty cheap for JAL)

 

[Timtammi]

I hope she has better luck than me. I had a China Southern flight as part of a multi-country trip to China, Korea and Taiwan that got cancelled due to the virus. All the other airlines have refunded or have promised refunds but I am STILL trying to chase China Southern down. They dont answer the phone, or emails other than getting cut and paste responses. I think they are short staffed, still half closed and/or completely overwhelmed. I have no idea if/when I will get that refund despite the fact that we are entitled to it. This has been going on for several weeks now. I think I have sent about 20 emails so far.

Update.. China Southern have finally responded to my emails about getting a refund. Hopefully I will have that refund soon. I also had to cancel and rebook an Air New Zealand flight to Canada/USA and they have told me 8-10 weeks for the refund due to the backlog of claims they need to process!!

 

[FromTheRail]

I'm on the hunt for some cheaper fares to Europe, across in August, back in Nov, will see how much it drops

From the recent chat on this thread which isn't really on topic, some may find this data interesting/useful:

 

[hossein_au]

From the recent chat on this thread which isn't really on topic, some may find this data interesting/useful:

The chart is fascinating; thanks for sharing.

 

[PineappleSkip]

After my latest flight cancellation and rebooking (a day earlier) for my trip home, I booked a hotel room in BNE. There were really cheap no-change rates available but I wasn't game to pick up on them.

Cheers skip

 

[Max Samuels]

Well it looks like I won't be going anywhere now!

 

[Melburnian1]

... I'd expect the deaths in Washington to result in many more cases being uncovered in WA very quickly as contacts are traced....

Skip, just out of interest, why have there been so many more deaths in Seattle (Washington state, USA) than elsewhere in that nation of c.329 million people?

Is it more exposed to Asians? I was last there about three years ago and didn't notice that compared with say Portland, or Vancouver in Canada.

Post automatically merged: Mar 17, 2020

The chart is fascinating; thanks for sharing.

May, in time, unfortunately be irrelevant if no flights to/from Oz are operating.

 

[drron]

One of the reasons for more deaths in Washington State was an outbreak in a Nursing home.

 

[PineappleSkip]

There is a lot of kismet in the places that get struck. An index case arrives in a location, and if not picked up (easy to happen if that person has negligible symptoms) it spreads rapidly from there within a setting or locality. Qom, Codogno, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Daegu are all examples. There will be many others bubbling away under the radar elsewhere.

cheers skip

 

[Max Samuels]

Is it more exposed to Asians? I was last there about three years ago and didn't notice that compared with say Portland, or Vancouver in Canada.

100% - Seattle is also swarming with Chinese property investors and tourists. I was there over Xmas and it was noted that, like here in Melbourne, buses and buses filed with Chinese tourists - the locals complaining about the behaviour

 

[Max Samuels]

I am travelling to Paris in June and still have not purchased a ticket. Keeping in mind that June is pretty much peak season in Europe, I checked today and I can get a rtn MEL-CDG on CX for $1300 - which is pretty cheap for Europe in general on a good airline, and especially for June.

My question is this: do you guys think that fares will continue to fall? I am particularly interested in PE/J maybe F. I recall during SARS how people pretty much avoided HKG and CX prices were sooooooo low. In fact, that is how I was first introduced to CX - and how I learned that QF was not the best airline in the world at all (I was young - forgive me). And I have never looked back!

Anyway, I know it is a bit of a gamble, but if anyone has any inside knowledge.... when do you think would be the best time to buy a ticket in the current situation we find ourselves?

I love reading old posts!
All seems kind of irrelevant now.....
Fun fact - we were all wrong! Turns out that no one actually predicted the shutdown of the entire world economy AND our Government locking us inside the country "for at least 6 months" - thanks ScoMo.

 

[hossein_au]

... AND our Government locking us inside the country "for at least 6 months" - thanks ScoMo.

Really? I am not one of his supporters by any stretch of imagination, but blaming him for the lock down for whatever length of time it is going to need to last? Hmm...

 

[Max Samuels]

Really? I am not one of his supporters by any stretch of imagination, but blaming him for the lock down for whatever length of time it is going to need to last? Hmm...

He locked us down. That is fact. Wrongly or rightly. And duration we are locked down, also on him. But that wasn't the point. My point being that when I started this thread, asking about what the effects would be on tickets and when to buy them etc, the discussion went in a bunch of different directions, but not being able to go because of lock-down? That was not even an imaginable - nobody even suggested that as a thing!

 

[tomlee1986]

Not sure about airfares on CX.. but I have heard a rumor in the Chinese media... KA and UO (both CX subsidiaries) might merge... this is not sure if accurate at this time, but there have been leaks in the Chinese media from HK...

 

[jb747]

It's interesting reading this thread from the start.

My take is that those airlines that survive will be smaller. In some cases, much smaller. Many will not survive at all. There will be a huge reduction in the number of available seats, even without any distancing considerations.

As a general rule, reducing the availability of something does not reduce its price. So, whilst premium seats may not rise in price all that much, I expect that economy seats will. Not so much in the headline price, but via the reduction in the amount of discounted seats.

 

[Stealthflyer]

It's interesting reading this thread from the start.

My take is that those airlines that survive will be smaller. In some cases, much smaller. Many will not survive at all. There will be a huge reduction in the number of available seats, even without any distancing considerations.

As a general rule, reducing the availability of something does not reduce its price. So, whilst premium seats may not rise in price all that much, I expect that economy seats will. Not so much in the headline price, but via the reduction in the amount of discounted seats.

I found it really illuminating to re-read from the start too. My 'she'll be right' posts about Italy were written about a week before I became a social isolation evangelist. The fact that I saw everyone out and about, business-as-usual, in Italy late February - just before the massive explosion of Italian cases - meant that when the cases started to build in Australia and everyone was saying 'it's fine', I decided to socially isolate before it was mandated. Fortunately my boss is a bit of a savant and did the maths himself, so he closed the doors and ordered us to work from home (if our position allowed) before most Australian organisations.