Will Coronavirus push fares down on carriers especially CX, JL?

[hossein_au]

... this is not a particularly nasty virus - with a vastly lower mortality rates compared to SARS etc. Yet the media driven hysteria spreads fear. And hence such drastic measures as closing country borders, etc. 100,000s of thousands die each year of influenza but noone closes borders for that.
...

This is where I struggle to understand the "reality". The odds of the young healthy doctor that "discovered" it, dying from it, seem pretty wild, yeah? And I have heard some really contradictory stats from "experts" about the mortality of it compared to the normal flu!

Mortality rate of Spanish flu was about 1%. This one's is about 2-3% (number of infected and the number of deceased are common knowledge; just do the sums, or divides ). Neither had/have any cure or preventative medicine and have similar infection-propagation characteristics. Factor in the ease and speed of travel now versus when Spanish flu was in full swing and you'll see why governments are DOING the things they're doing.

People do die from influenza, but the disease is both preventable and curable.

Having said that, I am not (yet) panicked, but that is more to do with my personality than with the facts stated above. Now, if you want to panic or not, is up to you; just make sure your decision is based on actual facts not your gut feeling one way or another.

 

[Pushka]

As someone who is over 60 and suffers from the usual "mild" ailments which can accompany age (eg hypertension), I am much more concerned about this new virus than flu.

I can have a flu vaccination which gives me a good chance of avoiding serious symptoms, but can do nothing to prevent catching the corona virus, apart from maybe moving to Mars.

Perhaps Juddles might like to tell us how bad the new virus really is once he's caught it and recovered from it.

I’m that age and have hypertension plus multiple auto immune issues and on immunosuppressant therapy and I’m not concerned. According to statistics IF I get it in the first place I have a 96.4% chance of recovery. As that takes into account less effective measures with crowded Hospitals in China I’m fine with that.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

I’m that age and have hypertension plus multiple auto immune issues and on immunosuppressant therapy and I’m not concerned. According to statistics IF I get it in the first place I have a 96.4% chance of recovery.

Where did you find the statistic for people of your age with hypertension plus multiple auto immune issues and on immunosuppressant therapy?

 

[Pushka]

Where did you find the statistic for people of your age with hypertension plus multiple auto immune issues and on immunosuppressant therapy?

Good point. I didn’t. I just did an age check. While I'm on that therapy I stay well although admittedly instead of no colds in the past I do get one every couple of years that takes a little more recovery from than previously.

 

[ethernet]

Airlines are not offering deals to make me open my wallet. Packages, 2-for-one, fly free one way are no good for single pax. Plus they still have peak time penciled in. Some should reconsider paid baggage fees, when their planes are going to be 1/3 empty. If you believe Australian farmers, their cargo holds are also light. Less extortionate change fees may also sell a few more tickets.

 

[Max Samuels]

Mortality rate of Spanish flu was about 1%. This one's is about 2-3% (number of infected and the number of deceased are common knowledge; just do the sums, or divides ). Neither had/have any cure or preventative medicine and have similar infection-propagation characteristics. Factor in the ease and speed of travel now versus when Spanish flu was in full swing and you'll see why governments are DOING the things they're doing.

Ok.... so according to the US CDC...

"CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010"

Burden of Influenza

Learn about how CDC estimates the burden of seasonal influenza in the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

I assume that even the most conspiratorial member on this forum can accept the findings of the Center for Disease Control? Anyway, using the top and bottom numbers as listed above, the mortality rate of the flu in general in the US is between 0.13% and 0.68%

So I am not crazy!!! I think people reading/listening to the news don't understand decimal places. I heard a Harvard Virologist on CNN about a month ago say these exact same things, but people seem to miss the difference between "point 2 percent" and "2 percent"!

Taking the lower end of the range as example, the coronavirus is up to 15x more deadly.... now, THAT makes sense to me withe regard to how governments are reacting etc

 

[Max Samuels]

Come on QF this is price gouging!!!!

$10k compared to around $6k on JL, CX, BA....
View attachment 206753
View attachment 206754

Wow this EK codeshare has dropped by about $4k since 2 weeks ago....

And First Class on EK/QF is only $13K (compared to J on QF as quoted above - only $2800 more)

 

[disruptivedolphin]

So I am not crazy!!! I think people reading/listening to the news don't understand decimal places. I heard a Harvard Virologist on CNN about a month ago say these exact same things, but people seem to miss the difference between "point 2 percent" and "2 percent"!

Some people just don't understand that the denominator of the mortality rate is *much* harder to observe than the numerator...

As of last night Japan had an official count of 919 infections.

Four deaths out of 705 on the Diamond Princess. Do we use that rate?

Four deaths out of the other 214. Do we use that rate?

Or do we just admit that the true number of infections is way higher than the official number, and that as yet we have no accurate idea?

 

[disruptivedolphin]

Mortality rate of Spanish flu was about 1%. This one's is about 2-3% (number of infected and the number of deceased are common knowledge; just do the sums, or divides ).

Number of *reported* infected is common knowledge. Number of *actual* infected is anyone's guess.

 

[juddles]

Some people just don't understand that the denominator of the mortality rate is *much* harder to observe than the numerator...

As of last night Japan had an official count of 919 infections.

Four deaths out of 705 on the Diamond Princess. Do we use that rate?

Four deaths out of the other 214. Do we use that rate?

Or do we just admit that the true number of infections is way higher than the official number, and that as yet we have no accurate idea?

I completely agree with the concept that estimating the mortality rate is very difficult. I think it will slowly get better (the accuracy that is) but I think we are many many months from any vaguely accurate numbers.

Take the example of the Diamond Princess, which is a rare case where most people were actually tested -

If calculations were done on say, the 19th February, (three weeks into the outbreak on the ship and two weeks after the lockdown/quarantine), the figures would have shown 621 confirmed cases from 3,063 actual tests (essentially most on board) - an infection rate of 20%, but a mortality rate of 0% !!

But then 4 people have died in the next week, taking the mortality rate to 0.6%.

But then what is the average age of the affected on a cruise ship - perhaps weighted heavily towards older and thus more vulnerable people?

Etc etc....

 

[drron]

Ok.... so according to the US CDC...

"CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010"

Burden of Influenza

Learn about how CDC estimates the burden of seasonal influenza in the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

I assume that even the most conspiratorial member on this forum can accept the findings of the Center for Disease Control? Anyway, using the top and bottom numbers as listed above, the mortality rate of the flu in general in the US is between 0.13% and 0.68%

So I am not crazy!!! I think people reading/listening to the news don't understand decimal places. I heard a Harvard Virologist on CNN about a month ago say these exact same things, but people seem to miss the difference between "point 2 percent" and "2 percent"!

Taking the lower end of the range as example, the coronavirus is up to 15x more deadly.... now, THAT makes sense to me withe regard to how governments are reacting etc

Though that is not the complete story.Most of the deaths will be in the hospitalised patients so the mortality rate if hospitalised for flu on those figures is ~ 7- 9%.The current mortality rate for hospitalised Covid 19 patients is 12-14%

Plus at least some of the population has been vaccinated for the flu but of course not for Covid 19.

 

[ethernet]

I think airfares will have to move as soul destroying mini outbreaks probably have added another month+ to BAU and omg the April school holiday high season is under the hammer. Unlike most, I see tickets as a contract with an airfare attached. Ability to change at a fair price is all I ask. Business conferences and first class are also under the hammer.

I have also heard some countries doctors are fearful of not getting Rolls-Royce treatment if they get it - such as heart/lung machines and expensive antivirals and so taking days off. The cruise ship is a bad example, because the Japanese expert said to effect infection control was defective. This is bureaucrat over-riding scientist - so ...

AFAIK every Australian Travel insurance retailer does not mention COVID19 in or out upfront, and I don't have the patience to call them up. I think Bali airfares were stupidly cheap - but my gut feeling is bogan choice seaside places is not it. I am not tempted to do bushfire domestic trips, as zero ground component discounting, and if anything increased accommodation prices.

In closing even if there was a vaccine today it would take months and months to roll it out, and 3 months is not what the airlines have in mind. Better exercise Force Majeure in their lease contracts.

 

[JennyMG]

Today is the last day to book QF DSC, and I almost did it.... then I read the headlines about Italy considering closing its borders between neighbouring countries such as France.... and it made me wonder: is there a decent chance that my vacation to Europe in June may not go ahead at all?

I've got a European holiday booked for 2 June/July 28 too, all booked and paid. Starting in France, then up the Rhine, down Germany and into Austria and Italy. :/ Not happy . Venice looking pretty Ghost Town like, and imagine it will get worse before better.

In fact had a dreadful China Eastern flight, stopping in Shanghai until 2 weeks ago,...it was a reward flight. I rang, waited 2 hours, but got it changed with NO fees or problems to a Qatar flight. So happy about that.

AND I'm happy that Italy has taken a heavy stance on this. 2-4 weeks, if they close borders, or isolate areas, before they know the actual extent of the outbreak there. That takes us to end March. Then another month for more people to catch it, - end April, and a month for them to get better. End May.
That's pretty basic and general, and unrealistic, but I'm guessing they'll be hardcore proactive so that they can reopen by summer holidays. I'm hoping, anyway. No fun going to Venice orRome if there is nothing open and no atmosphere.

 

[PineappleSkip]

I've got a European holiday booked for 2 June/July 28 too, all booked and paid. Starting in France, then up the Rhine, down Germany and into Austria and Italy. :/ Not happy . Venice looking pretty Ghost Town like, and imagine it will get worse before better.

Four months away? I wouldn't cancel anything just yet. Yes, the Schengen Zone outbreak will certainly get worse, but eventually it wil get better also. Quite enjoyed a crowd-free HK airport a week ago

Cheers skip

 

[MollyJones]

We are booked and paid to Vietnam with stopover in Singapore in 4 weeks.
I’m not worried about the virus itself, but am concerned that going to either of those places could mean we are quarantined coming home.
I’m not usually one to panic and only once in all my travels have I changed due to fear (airport bombing in Bombay as it was then known, and employer forced change)
For us, it is the unknown of government policy changes overnight which are the biggest issue.

 

[Stealthflyer]

I've got a European holiday booked for 2 June/July 28 too, all booked and paid. Starting in France, then up the Rhine, down Germany and into Austria and Italy. :/ Not happy . Venice looking pretty Ghost Town like, and imagine it will get worse before better.

In fact had a dreadful China Eastern flight, stopping in Shanghai until 2 weeks ago,...it was a reward flight. I rang, waited 2 hours, but got it changed with NO fees or problems to a Qatar flight. So happy about that.

AND I'm happy that Italy has taken a heavy stance on this. 2-4 weeks, if they close borders, or isolate areas, before they know the actual extent of the outbreak there. That takes us to end March. Then another month for more people to catch it, - end April, and a month for them to get better. End May.
That's pretty basic and general, and unrealistic, but I'm guessing they'll be hardcore proactive so that they can reopen by summer holidays. I'm hoping, anyway. No fun going to Venice orRome if there is nothing open and no atmosphere.

Enjoy a relatively uncrowned Venice (if there is such a thing)! It’ll be great. Just be sensible: wash your hands, avoid crowds, avoid touching handrails and the like, and try not to touch your face. And hey, you might actually be able to see the Sistine Chapel without a zillion people breathing down your neck.

I just returned from Northern Italy. Italy isn’t the dead zone that the media is making out. I visit at least once every two years. It was relatively quiet due to the reduction in mainland Chinese tourists, but there are plenty of other people keeping the “atmosphere” alive. The other thing to keep in mind is that by June/July it’ll be summer and so viruses are less likely to be passed on.

 

[PineappleSkip]

We are booked and paid to Vietnam with stopover in Singapore in 4 weeks.
I’m not worried about the virus itself, but am concerned that going to either of those places could mean we are quarantined coming home.
I’m not usually one to panic and only once in all my travels have I changed due to fear (airport bombing in Bombay as it was then known, and employer forced change)
For us, it is the unknown of government policy changes overnight which are the biggest issue.

Recommend wait and see. Things are moving quickly in the course of every day. If you cancel now you will likely lose money. Unlikely that you will be quarantined at this stage from Vietnam, much more likely if retrning from Iran or Schengen, if that path is adopted. Vietnam reported 16 active cases, has closed its border to China, and all 16 have recovered. More than we can say about Australia. It will come back to Vietnam, and it has come back to Australia. If still concerned, have a chat to your travel doctor maybe, closer to the date.

Cheers skip

 

[MollyJones]

Thanks Pineapple Skip, that’s pretty much our plan. Of the things that can still be cancelled, we have until 21/3 so still a few weeks to decide.

 

[Max Samuels]

Has anyone noticed on Netflix that "bio-disaster" movies are trending?
lol

 

[Max Samuels]

How on earth is Air China/China Southern etc still publishing fares to anywhere? And how on earth are their J fares still $6k to Europe? I didn't think transiting through China was a thing at the moment?

Post automatically merged: Mar 3, 2020

Mortality rate of Spanish flu was about 1%. This one's is about 2-3% (number of infected and the number of deceased are common knowledge; just do the sums, or divides ). Neither had/have any cure or preventative medicine and have similar infection-propagation characteristics. Factor in the ease and speed of travel now versus when Spanish flu was in full swing and you'll see why governments are DOING the things they're doing.

People do die from influenza, but the disease is both preventable and curable.

Having said that, I am not (yet) panicked, but that is more to do with my personality than with the facts stated above. Now, if you want to panic or not, is up to you; just make sure your decision is based on actual facts not your gut feeling one way or another.

Mortality rate in Seattle is about 33% at the moment... even if those numbers are "skewed" because we don't know the actual numbers of infected, 6 dead out of 18 "known" infections isn't a great number....