Wind Generation and the Electricity Grid

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And the NSW P&W is now leased to a fund manager on behalf of an Aussie industry super fund. So people like me will get a good return on my super (hopefully net)
R
Its just a way for the Govt to raise money.
Direct a lot of the blame to the average Joe for wanting all the govt services like schools, hospitals, transport but not wanting to pay for it.
 
My personal view is that while there is still a system, synchronous steam driven plant has a part to play in maintaining system stability and availability.

It was always known that older plants would have to close when certain parts such as turbine cylinders and steam pipe bifurcations reached the end of the number of lifetime cool-down and heat-up cycles they were designed for. What I always assumed back in the 70's and 80's was that they would eventually be replaced with similar plant, perhaps a bit larger and more efficient but still similar.

What I now think is that because the replacement plants may become redundant before their metal sections life is expended, they can be a bit cheap, nasty and dirty. I see something like a 350 MW subcritical reheat unit with a coal-fired natural circulation drum boiler, turbine 30% bypass with electrical protection designed to "trip to house" unless the fault is in the unit's own generator or local electrical system. Although the value of FCAS and SRAS are not what they could be in the NEM, some revenue from these services could be made and the choice of a subcritical unit makes cold start-ups simpler by doing away with the need for an auxiliary boiler.
 
So to replace the Northern Power station for 3 hours a day would cost $600 million

That's just the price for the batteries. Still need to factor in a wind farm, solar array, hydro or something else to actually charge them up as well. Smallish amounts to store current peak excess generation may not need to factor that cost in, but you can't scale it out in a linear fashion. At some stage you need to generate electricity, not just store it (with the associated losses).
 
RAM did you not read my link.It was on the sell off of SA's poles and wires to the Chinese and how they were creaming in the profits.It was called gold plating then.But in September 2016 it turned out they were not gold plated.
Also you like bashing the NSW govt and their sell offs.Seemed they did pretty well with their sell off of poles and wires-
Lease of NSW electricity poles and wires raking in $2 billion more than expected - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

But a disclosure I know the fellow who did most of the negotiating very well so be careful what you say.
 
Oooooowwwws! According to MP Craig Kelly, (chair of the Coalition's climate committee is warning ) these communists should be all dead by now or will definitely die next winter because of all those windmills.
Not what he said. What he said was due to the high cost of electricity driven by renewables, people will die because they can't afford to heat their homes.
Even among the communists there will be some who can afford their homes but some who can't. The people on the wind powered boat in the picture will but the pensioners on fixed incomes will be the vulnerable.
The picture actually is a very good one. The foreground yacht and the beautiful sunny skies and calm seas with elegant windmills in the background evokes a rather romantic and pure/idyllic outlook of a carbon free world but at the same time the hidden and inconvenient aspect of such practices -unaffordability - as depicted by the yacht. The rich will just sail on romantically while the poor on fixed incomes may pay with their lives.
 
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Not what he said. What he said was due to the high cost of electricity driven by renewables, people will die because they can't afford to heat their homes.
Even among the communists there will be some who can afford their homes but some who can't. The people on the wind powered boat in the picture will but the pensioners on fixed incomes will be the vulnerable.
The picture actually is a very good one. The foreground yacht and the beautiful sunny skies and calm seas with elegant windmills in the background evokes a rather romantic and pure/idyllic outlook of a carbon free world but at the same time the hidden and inconvenient aspect of such practices -unaffordability - as depicted by the yacht. The rich will just sail on romantically while the poor on fixed incomes may pay with their lives.

Hilarious isn't it. The chair of the Coalition's Climate Change committee keeps promoting the mantra that the high cost of electricity is due to renewables. The Person Whose Name I Will Not Mention wants the socialist LNP government to use public funds to build new Coal powered power stations. Yet the real cause of the high electricity prices is apparently the high cost of gas of which have almost more than the rest of the world combined. Which incidentally this government (and I have to add most previous ones as well) just give away to foreign companies at almost completely no return to Australia in royalties.
 
Hilarious isn't it. The chair of the Coalition's Climate Change committee keeps promoting the mantra that the high cost of electricity is due to renewables. The Person Whose Name I Will Not Mention wants the socialist LNP government to use public funds to build new Coal powered power stations. Yet the real cause of the high electricity prices is apparently the high cost of gas of which have almost more than the rest of the world combined. Which incidentally this government (and I have to add most previous ones as well) just give away to foreign companies at almost completely no return to Australia in royalties.

High cost of gas?. Yes its high. But why is it high?. IMO its high because there is no gas reservation policy in Australia and in a period when domestic supply is low, demand keeps going up because of a decline in baseload coal power relative to population growth - the only electricity generators built in the last few decades have been peak gas generators. So yes high cost of gas not dictates the true cost of power. Why no coal generators built, because of the subsidies given to renewables and the demonisation of coal.

So yes its high because of an anticoal prorenewables policy. At the same time we cheaply export coal to other places so they can burn it in their coal fire generators which are being built every week.

Infrastructure not funded by government if its coal but ok if its anything else?. Cant have it both ways

The best way to reduce power prices?
Not shop around for the best deal
Not batteries
Not Snowy 2.0
Not wind
Not solar

Its a simple case of supply and demand so increase reliable baseload supply

Coal baseload.

The atmosphere is not compartmentalised.
 
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And the reason we are relying on gas-because we are closing coal fired power stations the cheapest base load power producers even with the extra they are paying for emissions and the limitations on operating hours.It would have cost the SA Govt $8 million a year to keep the Northern Power Station operating over the summer months.
Then when considering the high price of gas don't forget the limitations placed by State Governments on Exploration and production.
 
High cost of gas?. Yes its high. But why is it high?. IMO its high because there is no gas reservation policy in Australia and in a period when domestic supply is low, demand keeps going up because of a decline in baseload coal power relative to population growth - the only electricity generators built in the last few decades have been peak gas generators. So yes high cost of gas not dictates the true cost of power. Why no coal generators built, because of the subsidies given to renewables and the demonisation of coal.

So yes its high because of an anticoal prorenewables policy. At the same time we cheaply export coal to other places so they can burn it in their coal fire generators which are being built every week.

Infrastructure not funded by government if its coal but ok if its anything else?. Cant have it both ways

The best way to reduce power prices?
Not shop around for the best deal
Not batteries
Not Snowy 2.0
Not wind
Not solar

Its a simple case of supply and demand so increase reliable baseload supply

Coal baseload.

The atmosphere is not compartmentalised.

I feel very sad for those promoting such beliefs. Australia will never build another coal powered power station. There's no business case that stands up and no investment appetite, and. besides, renewables produce cheaper power with price coming down all the time.

Given that, it's time to move on to more rational discussions as presented by the Finkel report (even though limited by politics) on how to resolve the issues rather than carrying on like The Person Whose Name I Will Not Mention about building more coal stations.
 
So why is it that the countries that have the highest levels of wind and solar production have the highest electricity prices with S.Australia just passing Denmark as the highest prices in the developed world.
Those who have the highest proportion of renewable energy with lower power prices have most of their renewable energy coming from Hydro power,not wind and solar.
If there were no subsidies and guaranteed pricing for wind and solar power in Australia and coal was allowed to operate continuously with the same tax treatment as wind and solar coal power would be far cheaper than the alternative.

You have of course Al Gore stating that China is going green.Yet 75% 0f their renewable energy comes from hydro and production from coal powered stations went up 9.4% last year.
 
RAM did you not read my link.It was on the sell off of SA's poles and wires to the Chinese and how they were creaming in the profits.It was called gold plating then.But in September 2016 it turned out they were not gold plated.
Also you like bashing the NSW govt and their sell offs.Seemed they did pretty well with their sell off of poles and wires-
Lease of NSW electricity poles and wires raking in $2 billion more than expected - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

But a disclosure I know the fellow who did most of the negotiating very well so be careful what you say.

The price any income earning asset (especially a monopoly, and a regulated Govt monopoly at that) is sold at represents what a bidder thinks it is worth - agreed?

A regulated (Govt) asset that guarantees a return on capital invested is otherwise known as a risk-free return.

The State Govts (across Australia not just NSW but some have made it an art form) and the Federal Govt have been well educated on this - I saw the first presentation back in the late 80s from a certain well-known Sydney grown investment bank. It spelt out the process of ensuring a high price is received for any Govt asset sell-off. It does not matter what colour they are blue, red or green - their future on the public purse is what matters not the outcome for the community.

Ever done some research on the shelf companies associated with a public asset sell-off? There can be dozens, with a good number registered in declared tax havens for some reason. Say examining a 3 to 7 year period after privatisation so the dust has settled? Amazing how many ex-pollies or senior bureaucrats become directors of shelf companies say big water plant company 253 or big water plant company 254 for periods of 1 to 3 years and earn directors fees of anywhere from $20,000 to $65,000 for attending board meetings 4 times a year for a grand total of 47 minutes (for example) across all 4 meetings. Or that they may be a director on 2 or 3 or more of these shelf companies - so in 2 or 3 hours a year they earn multiples of those director's fees. They must be well-qualified to get those roles!

Back to the RPP Policy in use:

Take an example, spend say north of $36bn on additional capex on poles and wires (which encompasses what was done Australia-wide not just NSW but NSW was the poster-child for fake claims).

State entities from numerous states AND private companies all testified before a Federal Senate committee and stated (at different times over several hearings over several years) that Australia's demand for electricity AND every state's demand for electricity is and had been rising in an uninterrupted almost straight-line. Check Hansard. Yet not one of them was prosecuted nor lost their job nor was demoted - not one. A bit like the GFC and Wall St senior execs & directors.

Trouble is the National Electricity Market Operator (toothless tiger by design) had been publishing those exact figures which showed that every state's annual electricity peaked & demand had been falling for some years and in certain states it was below levels of 5 or more years earlier.

Oddly enough though not one cent, let alone one dollar of additional capital proposed to be spent by State entities was knocked back by the respective regulator nor were the required price rises for every wholesale and retail electricity customer Australia-wide. - That is the truth aka facts of the matter.

More recently, in some brazen price gouging/ramping - just before the privatisation of the NSW Lands and Titles registry - the fees for a number of their services were increased by up to 100%. The most transparent (well-known) fee for private residential settlements/registration was not doubled though. Just the ones not so 'electorally' sensitive.

Back to the valuations - buyers pay a price reflecting the present value of future cash flows (earnings) from the asset discounted at whatever rate of return they set as the hurdle (required) rate.

Ramping up the earnings sees the final sale price increase 16 to 20 times the amount of additional fees (if no CPI linkage added - ever heard of Transurban?). If CPI-linked then it is a much greater increase in value.

not gold plated.

The term 'gold plating' means just that - you are not getting solid gold but a pale imitation that does not have the same attributes nor longevity as solid gold vs gold-plated. Gold plate does not wear well being around 0.003mm thick!

The spending was done, commissions earnt, 'investigative' trips made by senior Govt executives to various countries such as the UK in late June early July for example. It does not mean the spending was done on quality installations that will improve the outcome.

The reference to the SA transmission towers failing in the strong winds (near cyclonic according to the various investigations) were alleged to have not been properly maintained amid allegations that the owner had cut maintenance spending to increase their return on investment.

That is a totally different matter to building something not required.
 
Its the only way of increasing the tax take - no politician gets elected on a platform of increasing taxes. Instead of receiving ongoing tax payments, the govt through these asset sales have just brought it forward. Yes the income in these assets was increased to pad the sale price. But what to do when people want more and more services and better infrasturucture
 
So why is it that the countries that have the highest levels of wind and solar production have the highest electricity prices with S.Australia just passing Denmark as the highest prices in the developed world.
Those who have the highest proportion of renewable energy with lower power prices have most of their renewable energy coming from Hydro power,not wind and solar.
If there were no subsidies and guaranteed pricing for wind and solar power in Australia and coal was allowed to operate continuously with the same tax treatment as wind and solar coal power would be far cheaper than the alternative.

You have of course Al Gore stating that China is going green.Yet 75% 0f their renewable energy comes from hydro and production from coal powered stations went up 9.4% last year.

Sounds impressive ... but as usual the logic fails at the first barrier. Let me give you a simple* example.

My electricity bill from April to July 2011 = $394 with an average daily consumption of 20.6kWh. [Let's call this my "Australian" period]
My electricity bill from April to July 2017 = $??? with an average daily consumption of 16.0kWh. [My "Danish" period - still with me?]

So the $??? must have come down, n'est ce pas? Nope - of course it hasn't. The bill was for $442, so a 22.5% reduction in usage was rewarded with an 11% bill shock. Bugger being Danish, eh?

But maybe not ...... in 2014 the Total Energy Consumption per annum per capita (in kg of Oil Equivalent) was 5485 in Oz .... and 2904 in Denmark. Yep - those pesky Danes use only slightly more than half our energy consumption. Anything less than double the price of electricity would see Australians still PAYING more.

Let me explain the phenomena a different way (as people love to cherry pick one statistic out of context and I wouldn't want to deny everyone their fun). Remember the last severe drought in Sydney? Things started to get real when people couldn't hose down their driveways, and everyone re-thought their water usage. So at least their bills went down? Nope. The Water authority had fixed costs so the prices rose to achieve the same outcome.

So if you moved to Denmark and consumed electricity like an Australian, then yes - you would get a shock. And you would deserve to.

Must go - off to eat some coal like a good little aussie.
 
Hilarious isn't it. The chair of the Coalition's Climate Change committee keeps promoting the mantra that the high cost of electricity is due to renewables. The Person Whose Name I Will Not Mention wants the socialist LNP government to use public funds to build new Coal powered power stations. Yet the real cause of the high electricity prices is apparently the high cost of gas of which have almost more than the rest of the world combined. Which incidentally this government (and I have to add most previous ones as well) just give away to foreign companies at almost completely no return to Australia in royalties.

Privatise the gains, socialise the losses.
 
<snip So why is it that the countries that have the highest levels of wind and solar production have the highest electricity prices with S.Australia just passing Denmark as the highest prices in the developed world.>snip

That's interesting. Being in Denmark right now I've never seen so many windmills as here.
 
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Sounds impressive ... but as usual the logic fails at the first barrier. Let me give you a simple* example.

My electricity bill from April to July 2011 = $394 with an average daily consumption of 20.6kWh. [Let's call this my "Australian" period]
My electricity bill from April to July 2017 = $??? with an average daily consumption of 16.0kWh. [My "Danish" period - still with me?]

So the $??? must have come down, n'est ce pas? Nope - of course it hasn't. The bill was for $442, so a 22.5% reduction in usage was rewarded with an 11% bill shock. Bugger being Danish, eh?

You are helping prove drrons point there - your consumption in that period has decreased but your electricity bill is higher because electricity per unit of consumption is more expensive, and presumably you are still connected to the grid so all the poles and wires are still there and customers pay for the construction and maintenance of the grid, just like everyone else - your power bill has fixed cost component and the usage and now that a few coal fired power stations have closed and there are more erratic providers of electricity which sometimes provide electricity so this means that various peak load gas generators have to enter the market when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing but the price of gas is high so therefore the price of electricity for end users is higher.

But maybe not ...... in 2014 the Total Energy Consumption per annum per capita (in kg of Oil Equivalent) was 5485 in Oz .... and 2904 in Denmark. Yep - those pesky Danes use only slightly more than half our energy consumption. Anything less than double the price of electricity would see Australians still PAYING more.

I would love to know where those numbers come from but I suspect those numbers have a bit to do with the different sizes and climates of the countries - tell you what - I'll deliver all the mail to Denmark and you do Australia and we'll see who uses more fuel to do that shall we? Or perhaps we should just relocate the entire population of Australia to a land area the size of Victoria and leave the rest empty?
 
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