Wind Generation and the Electricity Grid

[Pushka]

Good news. It's very windy in SA today.
Bad news. It's very windy in SA today.

 

[RAM]

The sad fact that I see is that coal fired power stations were hamstrung hence closed-not because they were more expensive to operate but because they were not allowed to operate efficiently.Some also closed because of the increasing penalties they faced for producing even the electricity they could produce.
And as for privatisation of the poles and wires being the cause of the increase in electricity prices well just look at Germany.They are spending billions of euros upgrading their distribution systems to cope with the increasing variability of renewable production.
https://www.greentechmedia.com/arti...olar-billion-euro-grid-projects-seek-to-bring

State governments may have dodged a bullet as the new owners now have to future proof our distribution system.It ain't going to be cheap.

You're spot on Germany has spent single digit billions of Euros on their transmission system.

In the same period Australia spent over $40 billion on the transmission network but virtually none of it was to enable it to handle wind, solar or additional hydro power.

This spend happened at the same time as electricity generation by fossil fuel power stations had been falling YoY for many years AND most owners had stated they were unprofitable. This was long before the Wind Capacity rose above 500MW let alone the approx 4GW it is today, and roof top solar Australia wide was also below 500MW.

The production fell because demand was falling.

Subsequently as roof top solar slowly started to spread even then as we were seeing total power demand falling as steel and aluminum smelters could not compete with state of the art new ones in China and elsewhere DESPITE the power price paid by the Aluminum producers being below 2 cents per KW hour and in 2 cases below 1 cent per KW h vs the retail tariff around 20 cents per KW hour early on in that period.

State Govts have not dodged ANY bullets unfortunately as the private owners are guaranteed a return on every dollar spent on capital improvements. They receive this by the transmission charge being increased to provide them the required return. As all State Govts pay for electricity used - they are being hit constantly by these bullets. In some cases they may well be firing them.

As I posted several posts above, borrowing (now) at 4-5% and getting a guaranteed return of 10% is the kind of bullet I want to get.

Finally, as you have posted - energy efficiency pays off in a big way for businesses and contributes to falling demand.

A very viscous spiral is underway.

 

[RAM]

Good news. It's very windy in SA today.
Bad news. It's very windy in SA today.

So does that mean clothes dryers are being shelved and clothes lines are at full capacity?

And the SA wind farms had to curtail production by around 350MW earlier today.

The graph below shows SA only.



Australia-wide sees wind producing around 2,850 MW currently.

 

[Pushka]

So does that mean clothes dryers are being shelved and clothes lines are at full capacity?

Nup. It's going to rain.

 

[wandering_fred]

Nup. It's going to rain.

Just like it did in WA about 36 hours previously.

Happy wandering

Fred

 

[whatmeworry]

Anybody else saving $550 a year on Electricity?

It's been over a year since the Government abolished Labor's carbon price, and on July 27, Treasurer Joe Hockey said: "Under Freedom of Information the Treasury released documents last week that showed that electricity prices have come down $550 per household as a result of us abolishing the carbon tax."

Fact Check: Have electricity prices dropped $550 since the carbon tax was abolished? - Fact Check - ABC News

 

[Pushka]

Anybody else saving $550 a year on Electricity?



Fact Check: Have electricity prices dropped $550 since the carbon tax was abolished? - Fact Check - ABC News

We are paying less than a couple of years ago but have also changed providers.

 

[straitman]

Some people conveniently forget the brown coal in the Latrobe Valley is not as good the black coal in the Hunter Valley.

The power stations are also different to utilise the different coal.

Melbourne and Victoria's air quality has improved with less coal generation.

Really. :shock: Is this backed by any research?

Latrobe Valley locals say they haven't noticed any significant difference and it's irrelevant to Melbourne as prevailing winds carry any smoke/pollutants the other direction.

 

[RAM]

Which state has seen the largest rise in the avg retail price for electricity from March 2007 through to mid July 2017? The price is adjusted for inflation over the period - I don't know whether they used the State based CPI (should have) or the National CPI (should not have) though.

Is it the state with the most privatised generators?

Is it the state with the largest % of renewable generation?

Is it the state with the privatised poles and wires?

Is it the state with the lowest renewable proportion and highest-equal Govt owned generators?

Yes, you guess it - lowest renewable production proportion and State Govt-owned generators aka Queensland. Over the entire period it has been both Lib/Nats and ALP governed. So despite all the press about SA's high prices and renewable woes - Queensland takes the award.

The only one with ZERO wind.... Seems wind is not necessarily the cause of the price rises. Gold plating and gaming prices perhaps.


What I do find interesting - have a look at the Qld power price rise from the start of carbon pricing to the end.

The Qld price went up the most, more than the impact of the carbon tax and kept rising the entire period.

So when the carbon tax was removed it should have fallen the most (if carbon pricing was supposed to have caused the price rise as per the wording on power bills) yet unlike EVERY other state which saw their prices fall in real terms (after inflation) - Queensland went up further.

Is that enough evidence to convince all that Qld, regardless of whether ALP or Lib/Nats, has been up to no good and hitting all Qld residents and businesses were it hurts?

I wonder why no media outlet has ever run with this story?

Overall vs the CPI, this next graph shows the gold-plating impact Australia-wide (ex-Perth) - $45 billion spend commenced 2007.



Just when you thought it was safe....

There appears to be one flaw in the report. It appears that it is looking at the price per KWh and does not look at the impact in the daily service charge. If I am correct then the relative state prices will stay similar in relativity but all move higher. For the vs CPI it will make it look even worse in the period through until 2014 and pretty much be a similar step-up past then.

 

[drron]

So in 2001 the RET was introduced to aim for 2% of Australia's electricity to be from renewables.
In 2007 the Rudd Government was elected promising more renewables and a tax on carbon.
In 2009 the RET was increased to 20% renewables by 2020.
So sorry your graph of electricity prices doesn't prove what you think it proves.

 

[RAM]

So in 2001 the RET was introduced to aim for 2% of Australia's electricity to be from renewables.
In 2007 the Rudd Government was elected promising more renewables and a tax on carbon.
In 2009 the RET was increased to 20% renewables by 2020.
So sorry your graph of electricity prices doesn't prove what you think it proves.

Price rises highest in non-renewable Qld.
When carbon tax reversed - prices dropped in every State but Qld where they went even higher.

Previously several AFFers have been saying RET caused price rises etc etc. State that got the most compensation for the carbon tax also had the highest price rises. When carbon tax cancelled they had even more price rises.

Seems to prove that renewables not cause, and wind itself not cause (which certain people have been blaming like Chicken Little).

Zero wind Qld posted highest price rises before during and after each step change. Pretty conclusive proof against your theses past.

 

[drron]

Sorry RAM you don't see the wood for the trees.
Why is electricity expensive in Denmark.
Wind is more expensive than coal.simple fact.
You are not allowing for the REC certificates-paid by coal,given to wind.a massive distortion of the free market.

 

[RAM]

Sorry RAM you don't see the wood for the trees.
Why is electricity expensive in Denmark.
Wind is more expensive than coal.simple fact.
You are not allowing for the REC certificates-paid by coal,given to wind.a massive distortion of the free market.

I think your rose-tinted glasses need cleaning. The REC certificate imposition saw the Federal Govt give all coal-fired and gas-fired generators billions in up front payments that offset the present value impact of the new regime (carbon tax and REC certificates). When the carbon tax was scrapped - the fossil fuel generators DID NOT PAY BACK these billions.

And still Qld's power prices rose by more than any state that had wind power built.

Qld had ZERO wind and had the greatest price increases before during and after the carbon tax.

Much more than SA who installed bulk wind.

Please address the issue - Denmark has nothing to do with Qld's price rises and neither does wind, privatisation nor solar.

 

[drron]

And TAS,QLD and the ACT are the only places not to privatise.
And guess which states have had the most interruptions up until recently?
QLD and TAS.
So take off your rose coloured glasses.
Studies all around the world show that base load coal power is cheaper than wind.
Why are there some 1600 new coal power stations being planned.
Wind is not the answer.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/c...-accord-insufficient-by-bjorn-lomborg-2017-06

 

[RAM]

And TAS,QLD and the ACT are the only places not to privatise.
And guess which states have had the most interruptions up until recently?
QLD and TAS.
So take off your rose coloured glasses.
Studies all around the world show that base load coal power is cheaper than wind.
Why are there some 1600 new coal power stations being planned.
Wind is not the answer.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/c...-accord-insufficient-by-bjorn-lomborg-2017-06

You have still not answered the question.

Why has Qld has the highest price rises since, in your own words;

"Studies all around the world show that base load coal power is cheaper than wind."

?

Actually, studies DO NOT show that a new coal-fired plant is cheaper than wind - in fact the studies show the exact opposite.

Did you know that over 200 planned (and some already in construction) new coal-fired plants have been cancelled in the last 18 months as they are no longer viable? Over 100 in China and 100 in India. The most efficient super coal-turbines rated at 1,320 MW each have been the biggest losers in the India cancellation lists. Due to the rate of cancellations in China in 2016 - Chinese construction firms are scouring the world for anywhere they can 'encourage' to build a coal-fired plant complete with 100% Chinese financing. If it goes broke then China gains control just like has happened with the un-needed mega port in Sri Lanka that India is concerned will become a Chinese Naval base.

"The Indian Energy Ministry has this week announced plans to cancel four proposed coal-fired power plants with a combined capacity of 16 gigawatts (GW).

The plans previously called for four ultra mega power plants (UMPP) across Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Odisha, but these are now to be cancelled due to lack of interest from the host states."


"With the utilization rates of the average coal fired power plant at six year lows of 58% in 2015/16 (down from 75% in 2010), another government goal is to better utilize the existing thermal capacity." = running at a loss below 80+% utilisation

In latest move, China halts over 100 coal power projects | Reuters

That China's existing fleet of coal fired plants (many under ten years old) - are also operating at a loss?

That India announced that it will CEASE importing thermal coal due to its decision to cut the number of planned coal-fired power stations?

All this due to the lack of cost-competitiveness.

BTW - one of the largest coal-fired power station providers, GE, itself has stated that new coal-fired plants are more expensive to build and operate over their life times than a wind farm. So they are now one of the biggest wind turbine providers and have also branched into generation plus storage. Several conference calls back the CEO stated that based on their own research and development they expect that wind + storage will be their main game by 2020.

Or you are correct.

Want to buy a used buggy whip factory?

 

[drron]

The answer to the QLD price of electricity is obvious-you cant see the woods for the trees as I said.
The Government still owns the generating capacity in QLD.Governments are not efficient business operators.That is the problem not coal.
I also did give you the answer previously.In Australia coal generation costs half of wind to produce.Wind is quaranteed 80 cents per Mw.But despite your faux facts coal has to use a REC for each Mw or pay a penalty for each Mw if an REC is not produced.Penalty currently $65 per Me-non tax deductible.


Of course if you were correct why do we need an RET.Why subsidies for wind?Why does Warren buffet say if it wasn't for Government tax breaks he would not be investing in renewables?Did you not read my last link?

More than $3 trillion will be spent on subsidies just on wind and solar photovoltaic over the next 25 years. Even by 2040, and assuming that all of the Paris agreement’s promises are fulfilled, the IEA expects wind and solar to provide, respectively, just 1.9% and 1% of global energy. This is not what an economy in the midst of an “inevitable” shift away from fossil fuels looks like.

$3 trillion to get wind and solar from 0.6% of the world's generation to 2.9% in the next 25 years?Come on you must be joking.
Then of course comes the unreliability of wind and solar.You need backup capacity of 100% because there may be no wind which happened on 11/5/17 at approx. midday for all of SE Australia.That day wind made up just 0.6% of powere requirements.
Co incidentally at virtually the same time as the wind stopped blowing this article was released-
Nocookies | The Australian

Foreign companies dominate ownership of Australia’s wind farm developments, taking an ­estimated $1.7 billion a year in ­renewable energy subsidies ­offshore.

Sixty per cent of existing wind farms are owned by foreign firms.
This will increase to 69 per cent when four projects now in development are complete.

So $1.7 billion going overseas each year in subsidies and that is going to rise.

I'm sorry but your arguments sound like a George Orwell nightmare-

 

[RAM]

The answer to the QLD price of electricity is obvious-you cant see the woods for the trees as I said.
The Government still owns the generating capacity in QLD.Governments are not efficient business operators.That is the problem not coal.

Yet they've made hundreds of millions in recent years.

I also did give you the answer previously.In Australia coal generation costs half of wind to produce.Wind is quaranteed 80 cents per Mw.But despite your faux facts coal has to use a REC for each Mw or pay a penalty for each Mw if an REC is not produced.Penalty currently $65 per Me-non tax deductible.

Wind costs less than 1/100th the cost per MWh to produce from an existing wind turbine than coal at an existing coal-fired plant. It is near enough to free.

Of course if you were correct why do we need an RET.Why subsidies for wind?Why does Warren buffet say if it wasn't for Government tax breaks he would not be investing in renewables?Did you not read my last link?

The same Warren Buffett who has over $25 billion invested in coal and coal haulage assets you mean? BNSF for example.

$3 trillion to get wind and solar from 0.6% of the world's generation to 2.9% in the next 25 years?Come on you must be joking.
Then of course comes the unreliability of wind and solar.You need backup capacity of 100% because there may be no wind which happened on 11/5/17 at approx. midday for all of SE Australia.That day wind made up just 0.6% of power requirements.
Co incidentally at virtually the same time as the wind stopped blowing this article was released-
Nocookies | The Australian


So $1.7 billion going overseas each year in subsidies and that is going to rise.

I'm sorry but your arguments sound like a George Orwell nightmare-

Drron - you do not read what I have posted to refute your claims.

You dismiss the IMF, you dismiss GE, you dismiss the actual numbers (published repeatedly by the Chinese and Indian Govts) of cancelled coal-fired power stations, you dismiss reports from the Australia Energy Market Operator and the regulator - calling the IMF "greenies" is not the sign of a strong nor well credentialed response.

Do you deny that:

1. The Qld State Govt-owned generators have been repeatedly named by the AEMO, independent auditors commissioned by the AEMO and others as gaming the system to create hundreds of millions of profits? That does not seem an indication of an 'inefficient' Govt owned operator as you claimed for your reason for the high Qld power prices.
2. The Qld Treasurer publicly demanded they stop 'gaming' the system and overnight (and since then) the cost of wholesale power in Qld dropped over $30 MWh?
3. A coal fired plant cannot turn on/off its boilers within 5 minutes?
4. That offering power for -$1,000 for one 5 minute period (they pay the market to be allowed to provide it), then charging $13,800 for the immediately following 5 minute period, and $1,000 for the subsequent 5 minute period cannot be justified in any way other than as "gaming"?
5. That other Fossil fuel power operators have strangely left their gas plants or hydro idle and then offered power at $14,000 per MWh just creating a profit margin 200 or more times higher than 'normal'?
6. That despite 5 different investigations, including by the operator of Pelican Point itself - no cause (finger on button?) was ever found for Pelican Point ceasing production when another gas plant elsewhere failed? That the owner of PP made millons out of this sequence of events via its coal-fired stations?

Please just answer the exact questions asked.

 

[drron]

Point 1 that you make gives you the reason why QLD has the highest prices.It is government run and they demand a 69% return on investment whereas in Victoria it is 49%.
Us older folks can remember the good old days when the NSW and Vic governments ran electricity generation.We always had candles available as it didn't take a high wind event to cause a blackout.
Point 2.yet it was the QLD treasurer that demanded a higher dividend from the generating companies so that he could raid the public service superfund.
points 4,5 and 6-'utterly irrelevant to whether coal or wind can provide cheaper,more reliable electricity.

Point 4 you obviously don't understand the implications of your statement.Wind needs a 100% back up reliable base power availability as I pointed out on 11/5/17 when there was no wind power produced in the middle of the day.This is not an isolated event.it happens at least a 100 times a year in Australia.So yes the back up plant should be spinning.but in doing so more CO2 is produced.For Loy Yang for example from 2005 to 2015 the CO2 per Me increased from 1.14 tonnes to 1.35 tonnes.Calculations on the year 2015 showed that wind saved not the 1 tonne per Me produced but 0.78 tonnes.
Then there is the CO2 released from the production of a wind turbine-241 tonnes just for the steel and concrete used.If you really want to influence CO2 levels then the renewable source that should be used is nuclear.But then people don't believe the science.
Many other problems with wind such as when it gets hotter wind strength falls-as in Australia this June.But it is not only here.Texas in 2011 had the highest installed wind power generation but see what happened when it really got hot-wind generation in blue V actual usage in green-

No different this month as Texas has told consumers to reduce usage or face blackouts.
Plus wind turbines are dangerous.Bats are facing extinction-
Fatalities at wind turbines may threaten population viability of a migratory bat - ScienceDirect

Then there is wind turbine waste.An increasing problem-

“Although wind energy is often claimed to provide clean renewable energy without any emissions during operation (U.S. Department of Energy, 2015), a detailed ecological study may indicate otherwise even for this stage. The manufacture stage is energy-intensive and is associated with a range of chemical usage (Song et al., 2009). Disposal at end-of-life must also be considered (Ortegon et al., 2012; Pickering, 2013; Job, 2014).A typical wind turbine (WT) has a foundation, a tower, a nacelle and three blades. The foundation is made from concrete; the tower is made from steel or concrete; the nacelle is made mainly from steel and copper; the blades are made from composite materials (Vestas, 2006; Tremeac and Meunier, 2009; Guezuraga et al., 2012). Considering these materials only, concrete and composites are the most environmentally problematic at end-of-life, since there are currently no established industrial recycling routes for them (Pimenta and Pinho, 2011; Job, 2013).”

SAGE Journals: Your gateway to world-class journal research

“Estimations have suggested that between 330,000 tons/year by 2028 and 418,000 tons/year by 2040 of composite material from blades will need to be disposed worldwide. That would be equivalent to the amount of plastics waste generated by four million people in the United States in 2013. This anticipated increase in blade manufacturing and disposal will likely lead to adverse environmental consequences, as well as potential occupational exposures, especially because available technologies and key economic constraints result in undesirable disposal methods as the only feasible options.”

“The estimated cost to put blade material in landfills, not including pretreatment and transportation costs, is approximately US $60 per ton. [A typical blade may weigh 30-40 tons]. In the United Kingdom, where landfilling organics is not yet prohibited, the active waste disposal cost (which includes plastics) is approximately US $130 per ton.”

“Few individuals and organizations recognize the problems inherently related to blade recyclability. This situation creates an obstacle for promoting policy interventions to solve these problems. As a result, manufacturers, wind farm operators, and advocates have largely ignored the issue, focusing efforts on promoting wind energy and addressing other issues such as negative impacts on wildlife and noise generation.”
“If the industry cannot come up with more sustainable manufacturing and disposal processes, public acceptance of wind energy would decline if the public becomes aware of these issues, inhibiting its growth as one of the main sources of electricity generation in the United States.”

SAGE Journals: Your gateway to world-class journal research

And wind turbine failures are common-
[video=youtube_share;CqEccgR0q-o]https://youtu.be/CqEccgR0q-o[/video]

Then there are the claims that wind farms would be a tourist attraction.guess what?Tourists don't agree.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tourists-shun-areas-hit-by-wind-turbine-blight-hh05fdbp9

And I could link to many articles where wind farm proposals have been knocked back if you want.
Again-wind power is not the answer.

 

[wandering_fred]

...
And I could link to many articles where wind farm proposals have been knocked back if you want.
Again-wind power is not the answer.

Except perhaps in Albany WA...

Though rumor has it that we will be a "developmental site" for wave power. Something about the continuous prevailing current from the west... Perhaps even more reliable than the almost continuous prevailing westerly winds.

I seem to remember a dictum about starting a business (pity I didn't follow it). Location. Location. Location.

My apologies to those in QLD with much of a continent in between the steady winds and their wind turbines.

Just wandering

Fred

 

[marki]

AK Alan Kohler spoke of this the other night interesting Titbit so it should be available on abc podcasts or iTunes
Cheers

Miss Piggy