Wind Generation and the Electricity Grid

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We have a McMansion in Perth as a left over from bringing up two sons who could have their friends come and stay over. Now we have worked on solar and LED lighting to get the power bills down to around 25% of what they were.This is despite the cost of electricity rising quite a bit. All our family drive hybrid Lexus or Toyota vehicles. We cannot leave the electricity grid but the work we have done has helped make electricity a very small part of our living cost.
In California the nuclear power station south of San Clemente has ceased operating after about 60 years but there is no money to do the clean up so in 100 to 1000 years future generations will probably be critical of what has happened
 
Of course you realise that nearly 80% of Costa Rica's renewable energy is from hydro,15% from geothermal with only 2.1% of the "nameplate" amount from wind.As wind operates around the world at ~ 30% of nameplate very little comes from wind.

And you are being cute leaving out of your quote the link to nuclear energy.Though you might be in favour of a lot more dams in Tasmania?

Why even in California climate scientists are trying to stop the closure of nuclear plants as doing so will mean a rise in emissions.Led by James Hansen who even you must accept has credentials in climate science.
Climate Scientists Urge Gov. Jerry Brown to Let Legislature Not PUC Decide Diablo Canyon's Fate
 
Cove the argument over San Clemente is not about clean up costs but the costs of closing down and eventual dismantling.Here is how dangerous the radiation levels are near the closed reactor now-
750x422
.

The furore has been stirred up by green groups who are now trying to close the other Californian nuclear reactor.A study suggests that possibly more than 50% of their financial backing comes from investors in the renewable and gas generating areas.
 
AEMO reckons wind electricity generation can be as low as 2% of installed capacity. It estimates that this can be increased to 5% of installed capacity by building more turbines spread over more windy areas. Practically this means that 1000MW of installed wind can really only provide on their own guaranteed 20MW of baseload like capacity = "dispatchable power". So when AGL says get rid of Liddel and make up the shortfall of 1000MW baseload with wind etc what he actually means is 50000MW of wind etc (50000 x 2% = 1000). You can see why they prefer doing that - the profits would be enormous.

Of course 50GW installed wind would be impossible so they then say wind + solar+ battery is cheaper than gas....only because of REC and an almost non existent domestic gas reservation policy which sees OZ export gas at significantly cheaper prices than what we pay
 
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[mod hat]
A number of recent posts have been deleted in their entirety.

They contained personal comments that are not consistent with AFF's T&Cs, and I am not going to take the time to separate the wheat from the chaff.

If you can't play nice, don't play at all.
[/mod hat]
 
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I have done some sums after getting some (rubbery, initial, over the phone) quotes from a couple of solar installers in my area
Assumptions:
1)Redraw against my mortgage (essentially taking out a loan) for the infrastructure.
2) I can time-shift all consumption or supply consumption at peak and shoulder periods using solar + batteries
3) 10 year lifespan of infrastructure, no other expenditures during lifespan
4) annual interest is 5%
5) annual increase in electricity costs is 7%
6) realistic contingency = in case I cannot time shift or supply all peak+ shoulder
7) 15kw system generates approx 60kw/h per day all year round in Sydney (=4 solar hours per day average)
8) Total electricity cost is purely the cost per kw/h and does not include supply charge.


"coughulative NPV" = essentially what my current financial position will effectively be now, if I installed said system assuming realistic contingency

At 50% realistic contingency my NPV position benefits by $22695

Any comments appreciated.....



Screen Shot 2017-09-17 at 6.14.34 PM.png
 
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Pass on the batteries and get a 15 kilowatt system for about $15,000 to $16,000 making sure you get good panels and inverter. The payback will work out better.
We have multiple systems installed around Australia and the battery payback isn't fast enough.
 
Pass on the batteries and get a 15 kilowatt system for about $15,000 to $16,000 making sure you get good panels and inverter. The payback will work out better.
We have multiple systems installed around Australia and the battery payback isn't fast enough.
That is the other alternative, except our roof orientation is NE and our electricity consumption is substantially in the afternoon. So the solar hours do not really match consumption. We have a much smaller roof area which is NW but it is more or less in the shade from 1pm in summer

I will need a 3 phase inverter. Apparently single phase premises are not allowed more than 5kw per phase (per Ausgrid??) 3x single phase will be problematic in terms of load balancing.
 
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Yes all of ours are 3 phase across Australia.
What is shading the north west aspect?
Can you go west without shade as that can still be quite viable.
 
Yes all of ours are 3 phase across Australia.
What is shading the north west aspect?
Can you go west without shade as that can still be quite viable.
Rectangular roof. Biggest surface area is NE and SW. Small NW and SE roof. The NW roof is shaded from about 1pm in summer.
For some reason the person who built the house like that orientation in a North South block

Potentially I could mount panels off the ground in a paddock as we are semirural but that would escalate the cost.
 
We have a 0.75 acre paddock which is unshaded all year round. Next to the house. However this is the front paddock and in front of the house. Therefore very visible from street.
Ground mounted in front of house might attract thieves and DA issues with council
 
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Yes all of ours are 3 phase across Australia.
What is shading the north west aspect?
Can you go west without shade as that can still be quite viable.

You obviously have missed the "joy" of Western Power's rural 480v services......

Yes I have two inverters. And an immense north facing house roof that was ignored for the north facing shed roof next to the main grid service entrance.

Just wandering
Fred
 
You obviously have missed the "joy" of Western Power's rural 480v services......

Yes I have two inverters. And an immense north facing house roof that was ignored for the north facing shed roof next to the main grid service entrance.

Just wandering
Fred
Are you on 2 x single wires with earth return and 480 v 180deg out of phase?

I'm quite close to the "on pole" transformer - it's next to the driveway, so voltage at the service fuses is 250V on all 3 phases even during peak power consumption in the evenings.. One of the problems with too much grid feed is it has the potential to raise the voltage in the vicinity which I suspect is the reason the distributor does not like too much grid feed.
 
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Are you on 2 x single wires with earth return and 480 v 180deg out of phase?
I'm quite close to the "on pole" transformer - it's next to the driveway, so voltage at the service fuses is 250V on all 3 phases even during peak power consumption in the evenings.. One of the problems with too much grid feed is it has the potential to raise the voltage in the vicinity which I suspect is the reason the distributor does not like too much grid feed.

Two singles wires and earth return. I assumed it was "center tap" on 480v but I didn't ask. The transformer is 35+yr-old but all the local sparkies say keep it as long as possible. The PV installers (actually the boss) wanted the panels and inverters as close to the service panel/meter as possible. The house would add another 15m or so by the time the cabling got to the roof.

And yes, 250v is "normal". The LED 240v bulbs don't appreciate the extra. But they keep getting replaced.

Just wandering

Fred
 
And yes, 250v is "normal". The LED 240v bulbs don't appreciate the extra. But they keep getting replaced.

Just wandering

Fred
AS60038 implemented in 2000 mandates 230V or 400V +10%/-6%.
So could be between 216 and 253V
I'm really close to the maximum according to standards.
Hopefully if I do add 5kwh per phase to the grid it will not raise my grid voltage too much.

(230V is electrically related to 400V. Each phase is 230V relative to neutral phase, but 400V relative to the adjacent phase if neutral is not used.)
 
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At least 6 nuclear reactors producing baseload power with no CO2 emissions.

Not if the recent US examples are anything to go by. There is now just one project continuing and its future is doubtful. The figures are in USD btw.

The owners of the two latest and greatest have pulled the plug and will scrap them as the construction costs have blown out (and bankrupted one of the construction companies).

Attorney: Utilities meant to hide report on nuclear project

State-owned Santee Cooper and South Carolina Electric & Gas hired Bechtel Corp. in 2015 to assess construction on two new reactors at V.C. Summer Nuclear Station north of Columbia. The utilities were briefed on the findings later that year, though the official report is dated February 2016.

Essentially, the report says "this wasn't going to work. ... If things don't change dramatically, you'll never finish these projects," Elliott said. Its findings included a lack of proper oversight by SCE&G, the majority owner.

SCE&G should have disclosed the report's existence as it successfully sought approval in 2015 and 2016 to spend more on the project. Instead, executives told state regulators they were confident in the presented completion dates, said Elliott, also an attorney for South Carolina Energy Users Committee, a coalition of large industries that need a lot of energy.

The utilities abandoned the project July 31 after jointly spending nearly $10 billion, leaving nearly 6,000 people jobless. A 2007 state law allows SCE&G to recoup its debt from customers if state regulators determine money was spent prudently.

Legislators who are seeking ways to fix the law want to stop that. Customers have already paid more than $2 billion on interest costs through a series of rate hikes since 2009. The project accounts for 18 percent of SCE&G customers' electric bills.

The U.S. Backs Off Nuclear Power. Georgia Wants to Keep Building Reactors.

The Vogtle expansion is also backed by $8.3 billion in federal loan guarantees awarded by the Obama administration.

Critics noted that the Vogtle project could still be plagued by cost overruns, which would be passed on to ratepayers. The AP1000 is a novel reactor design, reported to have more safety features than previous models, and engineers have so far struggled with the project. Construction began before Westinghouse had finalized its design, and several safety changes had to be made midway through the process that pushed costs far past the initial estimates of $14 billion.

The company, which has partnered with three other utilities on the project, said it expected the new reactors would cost roughly $19 billion and come online in 2021 and 2022.
 
There is much 'wood for trees' battles going on in the power generation space.

Given the tens of billions in sunk costs (mostly written down to zero BTW) in coal-fired and gas-fired power stations - the vested interest groups have, well, ENORMOUS vested interests. So do the suppliers of coal and gas.

What State Govts and the Fed Govt REFUSE to do is reveal the (up to 95+%) subsidy given to the Aluminum producers which is where the 'base load' term originally came from back in the 1950s. As the Snowy scheme advanced - existing coal-fired power stations had a problem - they couldn't compete, so we got inter-connectors eventually AND the normal suspects playing State vs State (like for Tech companies setting up in XYZ, concerts, art exhibitions, Grand Prixs etc etc).

What over? How the State should provide 'enhancements' for Aluminum companies to build a smelter in that state to use up this 'surplus energy generation'. The catch, apart from various other subsidies was that the price the Aluminum companies contracted power for was generally at or below 5% of the retail power price.

Just Google the Gladstone smelter and you will see they admit that if they paid market wholesale rates then it would shut down the plant. They tried to be smart and game the system by having a bet both ways - contract at 5% or so for 85% of power required and play the market for the other 15%. Which they did with great success before the LNG export terminals and trains were in production. They took great advantage of buying gas at NEGATIVE prices - yes they got paid to take it.

Due to the excessive age of Australian Aluminum plants (and their small scale vs the brand new Chinese plants) - their cost structure is roughly 65 to 120% higher on marginal cost of operation. So the rest of the East coast power consumers SUBSIDISE these plants - and even then they are not making their required return on invested capital.

If the 95+% discount was eliminated - the plants would close. If it was cut to 60% discount - the plants would close. Just like the billions in subsidies to the US and Japanese car companies that were wasted - there will come a time when one politician stands up for the community.

Trouble is that's likely to be after we're all gone.

The overnight requirement for non-Aluminum energy demand can be covered (with much excess capacity) by the existing hydro generators with some assistance from gas.

The discussion needs to focus on the 'availability' or 'dispatchable' power not base load. If Snowy 2.0 ever comes about - then coal cannot compete and most gas plants become marginal. Currently due to lack of hydro storage - SA wind generation is cut by up to 600MW on high wind days. It's official term is 'curtailment'.
 
You need to look at some of the links I have upthread.
Here is a good piece on nuclear power by people who know-
Nuclear Power Economics | Nuclear Energy Costs - World Nuclear Association

And to repost some comment on the nuclear power shenanigans in the USA-
Climate Scientists Urge Gov. Jerry Brown to Let Legislature Not PUC Decide Diablo Canyon's Fate
"Given the serious harm to the environment, the economy and ratepayer interests that would flow from Diablo’s closure," write the scientists and environmentalists, "we are deeply troubled by the lack of democratic process surrounding the Joint Proposal. It was decided in secret negotiations between PG&E and unaccountable anti-nuclear groups, some with financial ties to the renewables sector. Sending this proposal to the CPUC, an institution that is struggling with its own crisis of credibility relating to improper relationships with regulated industries, would raise further doubts about the legitimacy of the proceedings."

Climate scientist James Hansen, Whole Earth Catalog founder Stewart Brand and other scientists and environmentalists are urging Governor Jerry Brown to let the state legislature, not the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) decide the fate of Diablo Canyon, which provides 21 percent of the state's clean power.

Renewables Can't Save the Planet. Only Nuclear Can

And here a report on Greenpeace and their misinformation-
Greenpeace’s Dirty War on Clean Energy, Part I: South Korean Version

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, nuclear energy produces four times less carbon pollution per unit of energy than solar farms, 3.4 times less than solar roofs, three times less than geothermal, and half as much as hydroelectric dams.

And the IPCC stresses the need for an expansion of nuclear to deal with climate change. In its 2014 report, the IPCC concluded, "No single mitigation option in the energy supply sector will be sufficient.” “Achieving deep cuts [in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions] will require more intensive use of low-GHG technologies such as renewable energy, nuclear energy, and CCS.”

And from the same article-
Out of curiosity, I asked one of the EP Summer Fellows Daphne Wilson to do some cursory googling of these “ordinary citizens” starting with the board members and donors of NRDC, EDF and Sierra Club.

She discovered that somewhere between one-third to one-half of them are employed by, invested in, or somehow directly connected to oil and gas or renewable energy companies.

While this may not be a total surprise — Sierra Club famously took $26 million from natural gas interests for many years and only repudiated it after a few of its members took the story to the media — Wilson also discovered clear conflicts of interests: many board members of NRDC and EDF stand to benefit directly from closing nuclear plants and replacing them with fossil fuels and, perhaps, some solar and wind.

Surprise,surprise.Those campaigning against nuclear energy get a significant part of their funding from gas and renewable energy companies.
 
As opposed to those campaigning for it.

As long as the maths stacks up then any option should be considered - but the business case must stack up.

Nuclear plants need to operate like a coal-fired plant - almost continuously. Their economics do not work if they are only required to act as 'peaking' plants. This is where pumped hydro is currently in a class of its own.

Potentially solar thermal seems to fit the bill (without subsidies) but it is still early days. The Tonopath plant has successfully silenced most detractors AND keeps Las Vegas' lights on when the sun don't shine.

For unexpected outages (which caused all but one of the blackouts attributed to renewables) such as a coal turbine failing due to the heat - then large scale batteries (li ion or other tech) can work without subsidies. The gaming of the wholesale market to see offers at $13,800 or above - should almost cease in SA once the Tesla battery is up and running.

But the vested interest groups (from all sides) are not interested in telling the whole story - just the parts which favour their interests.
 
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