Wind Generation and the Electricity Grid

[drron]

Oh dear.The wind is decreasing 0.5Kmh per decade since 1960.
The stilling: global wind speeds slowing since 1960

 

[Moody]

Oh dear.The wind is decreasing 0.5Kmh per decade since 1960.
The stilling: global wind speeds slowing since 1960

That's quite surprising with all the hot air being spouted by that moron's moron in London.'

Also interesting that despite the huge "Stilling" effect of 13mm/sec last year, the world added 54GW of wind power. An inconvennient truth, DrRon?

 

[drron]

Though since 1960 the wind has slowed 3Kmh.Yes definitely an inconvenient truth for Al Gore.
Besides TA is correct when he says that more people die in colder weather than hot.Just go to the ABS death statistics.More people die in colder months than hotter months.I have posted the link a couple of times before.
In the Lancet it has also shown the same for the whole world and Australia in particular.
The University of Adelaide has shown you are more likely to die of hypothermia in South Australia than Sweden.In Sweden it is older men with alcohol onboard who die outside.In South Australia it is older women dying alone inside without heating.

 

[Moody]

You do realise that wind power is a form of solar energy, don't you? Apparently the sun is sticking around for a while.

And you are seriously backing Tony "Global warming is good for you" Abbott with that bizarre stat about female SA pensioners?? So we are going to continue to burn coal until the ice caps melt, just because some DFA's are too stupid to insulate their homes???

 

[Quickstatus]

That's quite surprising with all the hot air being spouted by that moron's moron in London.'

Also interesting that despite the huge "Stilling" effect of 13mm/sec last year, the world added 54GW of wind power. An inconvennient truth, DrRon?

Ah yes 54GW added. Again that’s installed capacity or nameplate capacity - what the manufacturer sticker at the bottom of the turbine says a turbine can maximally produce.
What’s the point of stating nameplate capacity that other than to be rubbery with the truth.
What’s the despatchable capacity of wind turbines - what can it supply to meet demand at anytime. Surprisingly silent.....because the inconvenient truth is that’s it’s averages around 0-5% of installed capacity

So 54 GW installed last year or a total installed capacity of 450GW globally. How much of that 450GW was actually produced and at the frequency required by the grid?

Similarly manufacturers of speakers like to quote PMPO of their speakers as though the speakers can emit thousand watt of sound when the actual sound energy is measured in rms which is a lot less on Watts.

Even coal and gas are not truly dispatchable - only battery and pumped hydro can, (PHydro can dispatch in milliseconds) but these expensive sources are really only necessary when baseload is not predominant

Turnbull wants to trial voluntary consumer load shedding by giving them movie tickets.
Will each electricity account get one movie ticket per requested voluntary shedding. What if a household has 2adults and 5 kids?. The trial will apparently also include reducing power use by using BBQ instead of electric stoves. The Ivory tower really disconnnect these people from the electorate. Doesn’t Turnbull know that on those really hot days where supply will be stretched, the iscusually a total fire ban?. So they will use their gas BBQ - oh gas is more expensive. Would the power saved be more or less than the power consumed driving to the movies?
Again the poor are meant to shoulder the costs of this energy pricing crisis that is entirely politician created. The rich can afford their solar and keep their aircon on but the poor have to suffer

 

[drron]

There is actually evidence for what TA said about SA pensioners,A couple of years ago Adelaide University did a study showing that death by hypothermia was more common in South Australia than in Sweden.In Sweden those who died were usually middle aged men under the influence dying out side whilst in South Australia it was usually older women dying inside with the heating off.
And that was between 2006-2011.Power prices have been higher since then
Higher rate of hypothermia deaths in SA than in Sweden

 

[RAM]

Even coal and gas are not truly dispatchable - only battery and pumped hydro can, (PHydro can dispatch in milliseconds) but these expensive sources are really only necessary when baseload is not predominant

No, pumped hydro cannot dispatch in milliseconds it takes minutes for the sluice gates to be opened gradually and then for the momentum to build up to get the turbines running anywhere near close to designated operating speed.

Normal time frame used for pumped hydro, or just plain hydro is a minimum of 10 minutes, normally 15 and in some cases (older equipment, less head pressure) around 20 minutes or so.

Milliseconds comes down to physical batteries of some type or 'spinning reserve'.

 

[whatmeworry]

Australia added 97MW in September and other stats.

Australian households and businesses added another 97MW of rooftop solar in 2017, setting a record for the first nine months of the year of 780MW and putting it on track to break through the 1,000MW, or 1 gigawatt, mark for the first time in 2017.

Australia has now installed some 6.1GW of small-scale rooftop solar since 2010, but the current boom – which has seen households and business invest around $2 billion in their own solar installations – is bigger than the investment surges prompted by overly generous feed in tariffs.

Queensland still leads the way, according to data from industry statistician SunWiz, adding another 27MW in the month to take its total to 1.85GW, followed by NSW (now at 1,3GW) and Victoria (1.14GW).

Australia adds 97MW rooftop solar in September, set for record 1GW in 2017

 

[wandering_fred]

I wonder how long it will be before the shires require a grid connection outside of townsites for the granting of a permit of occupancy?

Just wandering
Fred

 

[Quickstatus]

Australia added 97MW in September and other stats.





Australia adds 97MW rooftop solar in September, set for record 1GW in 2017

How many MW hours were actually produced?
1GW is nothing. It could be 1GW in 1 hour or it could be 0.04 GW per hour for 24 hours in which case its 41 MWh. As its solar and Australia has on average 4 solar hours per day this equates to 250MWh?? but only when the sun shines.

Long way to go to produce 252,000,000 MWh annual electricity production in 2015 from all sources.

Oh and the 1GW is installed power not actual production which as soon as the panel is exposed to sunlight the electricity production starts to wane. So after 10 years subtract 20%. Then subtract another 5-20% due to suboptimal solar panel orientation, bad weather, dirty panels, inefficiencies converting DC to AC, losses due to battery storage.....

 

[wandering_fred]

So after 10 years subtract 20%.

Actually that is the manufacturers making certain that they don't have to pay out under warranty.
And they have gotten better as more experience is gained.

Though the thin film panels haven't quite caught up with the crystalline types.

Just wandering
Fred

From 2014 so likely a bit better now
What Is the Lifespan of a Solar Panel? > ENGINEERING.com
The Real Lifespan of Solar Panels - Energy Informative

 

[Moody]

This may be hard for the TAMs to understand .... but I think even the most green-eyed tree-hugger is well aware that Solar and Wind generators do not run at their maximum capacity at all times.

I wonder if the TAMs in turn understand that the average thermal efficiency of coal-powered generators in Australia is around 33%, so they produce a lot of wasted hot air as well as tonnes of CO2. Have a whinge about that, why don't you?

Oh - and super-efficient "clean coal" power stations can maybe get you to 45% thermal efficiency. What's that like - a badly maintained 30-year-old solar array ..... but with the added benefit of lots of lovely CO2 that is double-plus good for us!

 

[RAM]

How many MW hours were actually produced?
1GW is nothing. It could be 1GW in 1 hour or it could be 0.04 GW per hour for 24 hours in which case its 41 MWh. As its solar and Australia has on average 4 solar hours per day this equates to 250MWh?? but only when the sun shines.

Long way to go to produce 252,000,000 MWh annual electricity production in 2015 from all sources.

Oh and the 1GW is installed power not actual production which as soon as the panel is exposed to sunlight the electricity production starts to wane. So after 10 years subtract 20%. Then subtract another 5-20% due to suboptimal solar panel orientation, bad weather, dirty panels, inefficiencies converting DC to AC, losses due to battery storage.....

A few mistakes in the logic that are easy to make. Virtually all suppliers provide panels above the actual contracted capacity. So in our case our 250 W panels were actually 263 W to allow for the initial decay from sun light but they were rated as 250W..

The 'average' figure generated per day takes into account most of the 'sub-optimal' issues you mention - that forms the basis on how the RECs are calculated. In our case, 4 years after installation we are still generating more (on a rolling annual basis) than 3.8KWH/day - for the year to 30 September we are at 4.13 KWh/day.

On average the figure used to (under) estimate the production per KW of solar panels installed is a daily amount of 3.8 KW hours.

Simple maths: 1,000,000 KW x 3.8 hours - 3,800,000 KWh a day or 3.8 GWh per day, or 1,387 GWh a year. That is a long way from your 250 MWh/day - only under-estimated the avg daily production by 92%. So you're much closer than most commentators!

Total installed roof base now over 6 GW, so 8,322 GWh per annum.

Which is why the wholesale cost of electricity on a typical day between 10.30am and 4pm is roughly 60% what is was vs the peak rates for the week.

Not sure where you sourced the 252,000,000 MWh annual electricity production in 2015 from all sources - but it seems much higher than avg daily demand by about 4 GWh/hr

252,000,000 per year
690,410 per day (/365)
28,767 per hour (/24)

On weekends, 2/7 of the time, demand avgs 19 to 20 GW per hour.

Overnight on week days demand drops to below 20 GW as well. Most days during the day demand never gets above 30GW.

So something does not quite add up.

As of 16.50 NEM time Aust wide supply/demand is 26.4 GW

At 1.30-2.00 NEM time this morning total supply/demand was just 18.017 GW

As the figure you quoted mentions all sources - that would include wind and roof top solar as well. Figures definitely do not appear to stack up.

Oddly enough though there are many more 'unplanned' outages at coal-fired and gas-fired generators for some strange reason. Coincidentally this pattern commenced in July 2015 - never seen before then. Equally, the amount of electricity produced from Wivenhoe at times of peak demand fell 89% since that date despite water levels higher than in previous 3 year period of generation.

How odd.

 

[drron]

The important figure is the capacity factor.Energy produced divided by nameplate energy.Basically wind averages about 34% so divide nameplate by 3 to get the actual power generation.
Now you will find some clean energy sites claiming that 50% is the new CF for wind.Like this one-

• natural gas combustion turbines — Minimum: 10%; Median: 80%; Maximum: 93%

• natural gas combined cycle — Minimum: 40%; Median: 84.6%; Maximum: 93%

• coal, pulverized & scrubbed — Minimum: 80%; Median: 84.6%; Maximum: 93%

• nuclear — Minimum: 85%; Median: 90%; Maximum: 90.24%

• biopower — Minimum: 75%; Median: 84%; Maximum: 85%

• hydropower — Minimum: 35%; Median: 50%; Maximum: 93.2%

• enhanced geothermal — Minimum: 80%; Median: 90%; Maximum: 95%

• solar PV — Minimum: 16%; Median: 21%; Maximum: 28%

• offshore wind — Minimum: 27%; Median: 43%; Maximum: 54%

• onshore wind — Minimum: 24%; Median: 40.35%; Maximum: 50.6%

Wind Turbine Net Capacity Factor — 50% the New Normal?

But see what they did?50% is if they are at maximum all the time.Then the Median is quoted at 40.35%.But Median is not Average.

The EIA in the USA gives monthly Capacity factors for most types of power generation.Currently showing the last 35 months.So how many months did wind exceed the Median CF-just 4 out of 35.
Out of interest see that site quotes nuclears maximum CF at 90.24%.How many months did nuclear exceed that supposed maximum?Just 23 of the 35 months.
EIA - Electricity Data

For fossil fuels
EIA - Electricity Data

 

[Moody]

Sorry for the delay .... spent a long time trying to make sense of these statistics in the context of trying to save the planet from Tony Abbott and his menagerie of morons. There was none to be found of course.

So can we get back to the topic - how to incorporate a larger share of renewables into the energy mix while maintaining stability of supply AND letting the market drive efficiencies. Oh sorry - that was solved 10 years ago by Trumble Mk I. Wonder where he went and why did they lobotomise his clone????

 

[whatmeworry]

Turnbull's new energy policy will save you 50¢ to $2 a week. #winning

Households will be an average $2 a week better off under a reinvention of Australia's energy and emissions policy – and the Turnbull government has refused to guarantee even those meagre savings.

It emerged on Tuesday that the savings could start as low as $25 a year, or 50¢ a week.

How much will Turnbull's new energy policy save you? It could be as little as 50c a week

 

[wandering_fred]

One of my other favorite sites (which has a somewhat cynical though STEM-directed ambience) has posted a thread of comments relating to the (far)offshore wind farm supplying power to the Scottish electrical grid.
There are enough comments of differing viewpoints that all the posters here should be able to find something to support their (pet) position(s).

Just wandering
Fred

First Floating Wind Farm Delivers Electricity - Slashdot

 

[drron]

The tide may be turning for nuclear power with South Korea to restart construction of 2 stalled nuclear reactors-
Victory! Pro-Nuclear Win in South Korea Gives Momentum to Atomic Humanists Everywhere
And despite comments here Environmental Progess does not accept funding from any energy company including nuclear and are backed by James Hansen commonly known as the father of Climate Change.

 

[whatmeworry]

Fukushima Nuclear Fallout.

Another source of radiation form Fukushima has been found.

New research published this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that radioactive cesium from the Fukushima nuclear power plant is collecting in the sands and groundwater along a 60-mile (100-km) stretch of coastline near the facility. Cesium-137 is a radioactive isotope of cesium (a soft, silvery-gold metal) that's formed by nuclear fission and potentially fatal to humans when exposed to high concentrations. The scientists who led the study, Virginie Sanial of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Seiya Nagao of Kanazawa University, say the levels of radiation "are not of primary concern" to public health, but that this new and unanticipated source "should be taken into account in the management of coastal areas where nuclear power plants are situated."

Fukushima's Radioactive Waste Is Leaking From An Unexpected Source

 

[drron]

No one has been killed or sickened by the radiation — a point confirmed last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Even among Fukushima workers, the number of additional cancer cases in coming years is expected to be so low as to be undetectable, a blip impossible to discern against the statistical background noise.

But about 1,600 people died from the stress of the evacuation — one that some scientists believe was not justified by the relatively moderate radiation levels at the Japanese nuclear plant.

When Radiation Isn’t the Real Risk

Chernobyl was an unmitigated disaster in which the reactor vessel – the place where the nuclear fuel produces heat – was ruptured and the graphite moderator in the reactor ignited, causing an open-air fire and large releases of radioactive material. This reactor design would never have been licensed to operate in the Western world because it lacked a containment.

The scientific consensus on the effects of the disaster as developed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) has identified 66 deaths from trauma, acute radiation poisoning and cases of thyroid cancer. Additional deaths may occur over time, as understanding the causes of death is a statistical rather than a deterministic process. Considering that the authorities didn’t alert the neighboring communities for many hours, the long-term health consequences of that reactor accident are surprisingly small.

The case for nuclear power – despite the risks

Deaths per Trillion KWH
Natural Gas 4,000 (22% global electricity)

Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy)

Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity)

Wind 150 (2% global electricity)

Hydro – global average 1,400 (16% global electricity)

Hydro – U.S. 5 (6% U.S. electricity)

Nuclear – global average 90 (11% global electricity w/Chern&Fukush)

Nuclear – U.S. 0.1 (19% U.S. electricity)

How Deadly Is Your Kilowatt? We Rank The Killer Energy Sources

So you are more likely to die in a winf farm accident than a nuclear generator accident.