Wind Generation and the Electricity Grid

[drron]

The Loy Yang unit A that went out of service in October did so 2 days before a scheduled 40 day shutdown for maintenance.So surprise,surprise it isn't working as it is still in the scheduled maintenance period.

 

[RAM]

The Loy Yang unit A that went out of service in October did so 2 days before a scheduled 40 day shutdown for maintenance.So surprise,surprise it isn't working as it is still in the scheduled maintenance period.

... and the official NEMO report states they are still trying to find out the cause of the initial fault before commencing the scheduled maintenance.

So the facts, not spin:

• Two large brown coal-fired generators have failed while operating in mild conditions.
• After 3 weeks the cause of the first relatively 'young' coal plant to shut down has still not been clarified. They are now considering totally replacing the alternator to see if that will fix it. If they do so it can take up to 6 more weeks before generation can begin again. So total time out will be 63 days at least according to the latest update. That seems to be longer than the 40 day explanation you tried. Reality and theory...
  
• A second coal-fired plant, not due for a maintenance shut down - failed on Saturday and the latest report from the operator states they have still not identified the proximate cause - just the effect.
• On the weekend strong renewable production offset the bulk of the lost coal-fired generation, ameliorating its impact.

So two major coal-fired generators not reliable, not secure and not providing base load at the moment so we are seeing $300 per MWh power prices NOT due to renewables but due to un-dependable coal-fired power stations. An advisory that due to the higher load on the remaining coal-fired generators the reliablilty of supply has decreased but it is not at the load shedding stage. YET.

Lucky it is not summer!

Thanks to the unreliable nature of these coal-fired generators the current price per MWh is around $300 still for SA, Vic , Tas and NSW. Yet Qld where the State Govt has forbade their generators from rorting the markets, despite maxing out then interconnects at 1,195 MW - their power price has been in the $60 to $70 range for most of the last few days.

Odd though. The cost of gas to run the peaking plants means the cost of them operating is $80-95 per MWh.

"A rorting we will go, a rorting we will go,...."

 

[drron]

There are 2 generating units.The stations are still producing >50% of nameplate power.total deficiency ~ 950 MW.IE less than the output drom Hazelwood.
So what about today's electricity production-

Oh dear.Less than 2000MW at peak for wind production when nameplate generation at the end of 2016 was >4300MW.So wind with no problems still producing at a lesser CF than crippled coal power stations.
And though you are right that Loy Yang A where one of the 4 generating units is out of action is one of the youngest coal stations it is still ~ 30 years old.Longer than the predicted life span of Australia's wind farms.

 

[RAM]

Base load coal-fired stations not reliable, not dependable = FACT

Wind not called base load by anyone but Drron = FACT

Comparing Apples with Rotten Oranges favourite pastime for some - generates pity from others = FACT

 

[drron]

Show me where I called wind power base load.
And coal powered generation is much more reliable than wind generation-FACT.
And please 2 generating units-not 2 power stations-in 1 state of Australia does not make coal as base load not dependable.

 

[straitman]

I am glad we successfully managed to survive so many years without significant issues with such unreliable coal fired equipment.

 

[RAM]

Victorian brown coal-fired generators currently producing at greater than 1,500 MW below capacity NOT 950. All up Vic fossil-fuel generators currently generating 2,100 MW below capacity.

Victorian Wholesale power price currently most expensive in Australia, and more than 2x that of Qld.

Simple facts.

 

[straitman]

Victorian brown coal-fired generators currently producing at greater than 1,500 MW below capacity NOT 950. All up Vic fossil-fuel generators currently generating 2,100 MW below capacity.

Victorian Wholesale power price currently most expensive in Australia, and more than 2x that of Qld.

Simple facts.

I cannot find that information anywhere so I assume that you have a source for these numbers.

 

[drron]

The 2 units out of service are responsible for 950MW of power.
There is no generator that always runs at 100% of nameplate.
So for the umpteenth time here are real world figures for capacity factors-USA because they are better at collating the data and have a lot more data.
Capacity factor for months of 2017-
coal-43.4-67.1%
Gas combined cycle-45.7-70.1%
Gas combustion turbine-5.8-12.5% This is the back up system so not running continuously.
EIA - Electricity Data

Nuclear-79.2-99.0%
Hydro-45.9-56.9%
wind-22.5-44.7%
Solar PV-16.9-35.7%
solar thermal-7.3-37.9%.
EIA - Electricity Data

So let's do the figures for CF of coal at present in Victoria.You say they are 2100 below capacity.nameplate is 4730MW therefore CF is 55.6%Certainly not a failure.
But if we do the CF for all except the 2 units out of service the CF becomes 75%.So they are working flat out.
And here is the last 24 hours of electricity production in Australia for fossil fuels and wind.

Nope wind still not making it to 50% CF.

 

[drron]

Oh and by the way just maybe the QLD price is being kept low because there is an election on Saturday and power prices are a major issue.And the generators were not privatised in QLD and still run by the government.

 

[RAM]

1. Qld prices have been the lowest in Australia since the much reported (and mentioned over 20 times in this blog) edict from the State Treasurer to stop rorting the system. = Wrong again
   
2. Prior to Qld Treasurer's edict the Qld Govt-owned generators were the greatest market rorters not the private sector as they didn't believe they could possibly get away with it. AEMO report outed them as such several times (including in its Annual Report. = Wrong again
   
3. Please stop wasting everybody's time trying and failing to make a point by comparing Wind Power % of capacity to Coal-fired % of capacity - It fools nobody. It is verging on the pathetic now. Base load is supposed to be 100% available, 100% reliable, and 100% secure as a ready reserve for grid security. Wind is not. Comparing one against the other as you repeatedly do is meaningless. = Wrong again
   
4. All the figures are on the AEMO site (links provided repeatedly in this blog). = Wrong again
   
5. Unfortunately Drron not calling a generator failure a failure does not stack up against the owner/operator legally registering it as a failure and the AEMO registering its as a failure. = Wrong again
   
6. Your knowledge of coal-fired generation capacity vs name plate capacity is somewhat deficient. See example as of right now how much a single coal-fired turbine is generating vs name plate in Victoria as I type - both over 100%.= Wrong again

 

[drron]

I'm sorry but this-

Base load is supposed to be 100% available, 100% reliable, and 100% secure as a ready reserve for grid security. Wind is not. Comparing one against the other as you repeatedly do is meaningless

shows you really do not understand electricity generation and definitely don't understand my arguments.
I have always said wind is not and never will be base load power.Yet you have governments who believe they can go to 100% renewables.
And I am not trying to fool anybody with Capacity Factors-it is internationally recognised as a valid comparison of different forms of generation.

Please note my figures on CF are from the US Energy Information Administration.So I take their word over yours.
And my production figures on Australian generation are from aemo and collated here-
Australian Energy Market | Aneroid
See it includes the same evidence as you just posted but in figures.

 

[RAM]

Victoria Brown coal MW production previously = above 4,700 MW since Hazelwood shut down.

Difference from post-Hazelwood generation capacity until now = more than 1,500 MW





Victorian Brown coal production currently

 

[drron]

Hoist on your own petard.
Easy to see why brown coal is operating at less than peak efficiency in Victoria.Just look at the figures from the 19/8 to today.
Coal-4721MW to 3180MW.
Gas-369MW to 2308MW.
Total generation-5742MW to 7176MW.

In truth I knew those figures.So the reason is almost not the inefficiency of coal generation but the fact it was not needed.And quite correctly the source you cut back on is the higher emission coal stations.
Besides as you have explained it is much easier to rort with instantaneous gas generation.

 

[Moody]

Tedious does not even come close to this utterly pointless and circular statistical jousting. How about we discuss the real issue?

The abject failure of policy, planning and governance in the energy sector is about as bad as it gets. We have an abundance of possible solar and wind and hydro sites, along with (of course) shedloads of fossil fuels and even uranium.

Admittedly the distances involved raise a lot of transmission and interconnect challenges, but adding storage capacity in the form of pumped hydro, commercial battery farms and encouraging domestic solar/battery systems would avoid many of the recent trip events.

So it really shouldn't be this hard, should it? Set up the economic levers to meet our energy needs, reduce our carbon emissions, and help the rest of the world get there too. Instead we get the current farce from the "Coal is good for humanity" coughs and their sycophants.

Our children will despise us ....

 

[wandering_fred]

While this gentleman comments more about the pending short fall in Victorian power generation, wind generated power is part of the discussion. Of course, WA power usage and generation is not part of the "national" reporting.

Just wandering


Fred

Australian Base Load Electrical Power – Week Ending 25th November 2017

 

[Moody]

While this gentleman comments more about the pending short fall in Victorian power generation, wind generated power is part of the discussion. Of course, WA power usage and generation is not part of the "national" reporting.

Just wandering


Fred

Australian Base Load Electrical Power – Week Ending 25th November 2017

Gentleman???? Is that a new term for a climate change denying coal lover???

...........

Anton Lang uses the screen name of TonyfromOz, and he writes at this site, PA Pundits International on topics related to electrical power generation, from all sources, concentrating mainly on Renewable Power, and how the two most favoured methods of renewable power generation, Wind Power and all versions of Solar Power, fail comprehensively to deliver levels of power required to replace traditional power generation

 

[TheRealTMA]

Isn't it good to see the Feds out an celebrating and trumpeting SA's new battery and renewable policy.

South Australia turns on Tesla's 100MW battery: 'History in the making'

 

[wandering_fred]

Seems that Australia is not the only place having a divisive discussion on renewable power. See link below.

Certainly one part of the answer in utilizing such generating sources is distribution. While I suspect that I will not see WA connected to the NEM in my lifetime, better inter-state connections in eastern states will go a long way to mitigate the intermittent nature of most renewable sources. But given the high cost structure of Australian infrastructure building, would expanded (and higher voltage) distribution networks ever generate "profits"

Just wandering
Fred

This 19th-century technology could finally modernize the grid

 

[TheRealTMA]

So the Minister for Health here in SA has now admitted the cause of the 17 minute blackout in the Hospital during surgery procedures was not software after all but the generator ran out of fuel. And these people run our state. Ran out of money and now run out of fuel. March is an election. But Nick X is creating complications.

Seems the Xens maybe a better alternative? No?
At least you’ve got progressive solar and batteries in place and further development, despite rear guard fighting from the fed LNP.