Would you visit China?

[Melburnian1]

I don’t think the virus is any more nasty than the flu one unless you are immune comprised, elderly, and have other health issues.

Too early to make that assessment. Do we have a complete picture from communist China as to who's died? Given Xi's record, one doubts that.

No way would I be going to mainland China (or Hong Kong) at present.

 

[Pushka]

Too early to make that assessment. Do we have a complete picture from communist China as to who's died? Given Xi's record, one doubts that.

No way would I be going to mainland China (or Hong Kong) at present.

Of course. I’m a total layman. And no visit there for us either. We also don’t have a true figure for infection rate either. In the early stages maybe people didn’t seek treatment early enough or if they did, it was dismissed as a cold. And we probably won’t get a true figure of infection rates unless it spreads more widely through the world and that is the one thing we don’t want to happen.

 

[tango_whiskey]

I’m not saying younger people may not die from it. So 2 younger men out of 300? And there has been no mention as to pre existing issues in that case. Who knows what else was going on there. He was initially recovering so maybe he had a heart condition.

Correct, younger people can die from it. The two I mentioned were just examples, not an exhaustive collection of younger patients who have died from the virus. These examples make it worrisome when comparing to the data floating around that the median age is 75. The truth of the matter is that publicly available data regarding age, severity, and mortality are not available beyond what China supplied for the first 17 patients. This isn't enough to represent the actual population, so no conclusions should be made at this point.

What we do know so far is the severity, mortality, and infection rates are going to be in between that of the flu and sars. And thus, regardless of your health or age, take precautions because no conclusions can be made at this time without actual data.

 

[Quickstatus]

In the meantime...and again I go back to the influenza season in the USA.(Not to downgrade the severity of the 2019 n-COV). People happily still going to the USA.

 

[amaroo]

In the meantime...and again I go back to the influenza season in the USA.(Not to downgrade the severity of the 2019 n-COV). People happily still going to the USA.

View attachment 205341

Either a massive and stupid overreaction .... or the authorities are clearly not telling the truth. 20,000 sick does not = quarantining a county of 1.3 billion.

 

[Quickstatus]

Impossible to know with certainty. But yes it is worth bearing in mind that the population is huge. Im not sure what the current R-zero number is now.

The other question from a medical friend is- in situations where ICU resources are stretched would the ICU treatment for current patients be abbreviated in favour of other patients who they feel they can save or whom they feel have a better chance at survival? Or aresome denied ICU treatment as they are too sick?

 

[I love to travel]

What is giving me comfort at the moment is the low mortality rate outside of China.

 

[Quickstatus]

What is giving me comfort at the moment is the low mortality rate outside of China.

And its the same virus.

 

[teammongo]

A couple of points.

1. In the Whitehouse briefing by Alex Azar (Secretary of Health and Human Services, Chairman of the President’s Task Force), they outlined why the travel ban was brought into place and specifically compared the current Influenza season.
Dr. Anthony Fauci (Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease) stated :
"Well, the reason is, despite the morbidity and mortality with influenza, there’s a certainty, for example, of seasonal flu. I can tell you all, guaranteed, that as we get into March and April, the flu cases are going to go down. You could predict pretty accurately what the range of the mortality is and the hospitalizations, as we’ve done over the years."
Whitehouse briefing with CDC, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, Department of Homeland Security,

2. Mortality rates will be lower until resource limitations hit. That has already happen in China. This is inevitable that it will go up if we get run away here. (if recorded - because they die and you they arent investigated because it serves no therapeutic purpose)

3. Regarding the question of ICU resourcing :
The basic principles are:
a. will the therapy benefit the patient
b. can the therapy be given in an effective way (ie to completion)
c. can that resource be better utilised
d. how long will that resouce be "taken"

You can't give what you don't have - you cant ventilate someone if there is no ventilator or more importantly no one to look after them. Eventually what happens is resources are invested into "easy wins" so they can move onto the next - Negative triage (as is done in mass casualty). Essentially the greatest good for the greatest number.
So old and sick, dont get a look in, dont get investigated and are palliated early.

I think the numbers are going to get more and more rubbery as time goes on. With home lockdown, the old will die at home, and not be an official statistic (as they were never tested).

As an example, H1N1 stretched the whole first world critical care services. The sheer numbers of 2019-nCoV and rate of rise is staggering.

Put quite simply - If China can't cope - we will find it hard to cope.

 

[Digger11]

To answer the original question -NO

 

[woodyren]

It's a no from me also. I usually visit China a 2-3 times a year and also do quite a bit of leisure travel elsewhere, normally including ocean cruises. We have cruises booked in March and April, the later ending in Singapore in May. We have flight bookings from Singapore to Shenyang in Nth China on May 4th. After a month in Shenyang which normally would include a number of short trips to Chinese locations I have not yet visited we then have 3 weeks of cruises to Japan departing from Tianjin. Have J award flights from Beijing via HK to SYD on CX booked after cruises.

The cruise line (most cruise lines have also) we use have slapped a ban on any passengers who have travelled from of transited China or HK in the last 15 days. Many other countries also have travel bans.

So if I planned to travel to China now I would need to cancel as travelling there would exclude us from future plans.

What we do later will depend on the rapidly changing conditions. RCL are moving their ships from China and so we will probably just retain our bookings and cruise (if they are still cruising) to where the new itineraries take us.

Flights will have to be rearranged (cop the pts penalty for cancellation) and one on Scoot from Singapore to Shenyang may just be a loss as our Travel Insurance doesn't cover pandemics.

Interesting times ahead.

 

[Franky]

The first patient to die outside of China was a 44 year old male in the Philippines.

I'm looking for it, but I recall another man in his 30s also died.

So it certainly is possible, symptoms can be severe or mild. With current data it appears more infective and has a higher mortality rate than the flu, but less than SARS. Unfortunately, unlike SARS, the coronavirus is contagious when pts are asymptomatic.

I believe he was from China though...

 

[Max Samuels]

I wouldn't go to China because:

a) already been there so many times I cannot count
b) one of my least favorite places to visit
c) don't want to get sick

Just came back from 10 days in Japan... interesting to see how the Japanese media is covering it. Unlike Australia, they don't seem to have a problem with potentially "upsetting" the Chinese Government... so they had investigative journalism stories from ground zero, about local businesses selling USED masks (how disgusting), the black market for the live animals suspected of causing the spread (e.g. bats etc - yuk), that people CONTINUE to eat ... meanwhile I am reading the smh/age online, and come across bleeding heart stories of "xenophobia" against the Chinese (are you serious??). Here in Australia we know not to even touch a bat (e.g. Flying Fox). It is quite well known the nasty and deadly virus one can get from a lying Fox (just google it). I can't imagine that eating them is any better for you...

Is it Xenophobic if it is true? There are obviously very big cultural differences between China and Australia, and Japan for that matter, and while we normally just observe and complain to each other, in situations like this, where spitting in public is actually REALLY BAD for transmitting diseases, it is Xenophobic to say "hey stop that - it is disgusting"? I know it gives the PC police little heart-flutters, because they like to think that life is just a rose garden. For the first time in my life I felt compelled to wear masks on public transport and on planes - the ENTIRE JAL cabin crew/ground staff have been FORCED to wear masks by the airline - so, we can look at it 2 ways - either some big media-driven over-reaction and/or conspiracy against China, that all the big companies are buying into.... or perhaps there is something else to it? Maybe these companies that are making these decisions have some kind of proper advice that says "hey this isn't a joke - protect your people".

As for the Chinese Gov "stats" on the disease..... I recently watched the docudrama "Chernobyl"..... and the stats at the end of that just blew my mind.... the official Russian Gov death toll to this very day is 200ish - but the World Nuclear Energy Agency (or whatever it is called) reckons it was more like 90k..... I think I trust China as much as I trust the Soviets, when it comes to "facts".

While it is sad and terrible for the people affected in China, I don't think there is any issues with Australia closing its borders or preventing travel to affected areas. And I'm a libertarian!!

 

[lonewolf]

I wouldn't go to China because:

a) already been there so many times I cannot count
b) one of my least favorite places to visit
c) don't want to get sick

Just came back from 10 days in Japan... interesting to see how the Japanese media is covering it. Unlike Australia, they don't seem to have a problem with potentially "upsetting" the Chinese Government... so they had investigative journalism stories from ground zero, about local businesses selling USED masks (how disgusting), the black market for the live animals suspected of causing the spread (e.g. bats etc - yuk), that people CONTINUE to eat ... meanwhile I am reading the smh/age online, and come across bleeding heart stories of "xenophobia" against the Chinese (are you serious??). Here in Australia we know not to even touch a bat (e.g. Flying Fox). It is quite well known the nasty and deadly virus one can get from a lying Fox (just google it). I can't imagine that eating them is any better for you...

Is it Xenophobic if it is true? There are obviously very big cultural differences between China and Australia, and Japan for that matter, and while we normally just observe and complain to each other, in situations like this, where spitting in public is actually REALLY BAD for transmitting diseases, it is Xenophobic to say "hey stop that - it is disgusting"? I know it gives the PC police little heart-flutters, because they like to think that life is just a rose garden. For the first time in my life I felt compelled to wear masks on public transport and on planes - the ENTIRE JAL cabin crew/ground staff have been FORCED to wear masks by the airline - so, we can look at it 2 ways - either some big media-driven over-reaction and/or conspiracy against China, that all the big companies are buying into.... or perhaps there is something else to it? Maybe these companies that are making these decisions have some kind of proper advice that says "hey this isn't a joke - protect your people".

As for the Chinese Gov "stats" on the disease..... I recently watched the docudrama "Chernobyl"..... and the stats at the end of that just blew my mind.... the official Russian Gov death toll to this very day is 200ish - but the World Nuclear Energy Agency (or whatever it is called) reckons it was more like 90k..... I think I trust China as much as I trust the Soviets, when it comes to "facts".

While it is sad and terrible for the people affected in China, I don't think there is any issues with Australia closing its borders or preventing travel to affected areas. And I'm a libertarian!!

100% agree with you, and there is more and more evidence of all the coverups that initially took place in december when people / doctors started reporting this virus.

 

[Lynnelanne]

I wouldn't go to China because:

a) already been there so many times I cannot count
b) one of my least favorite places to visit
c) don't want to get sick

Just came back from 10 days in Japan... interesting to see how the Japanese media is covering it. Unlike Australia, they don't seem to have a problem with potentially "upsetting" the Chinese Government... so they had investigative journalism stories from ground zero, about local businesses selling USED masks (how disgusting), the black market for the live animals suspected of causing the spread (e.g. bats etc - yuk), that people CONTINUE to eat ... meanwhile I am reading the smh/age online, and come across bleeding heart stories of "xenophobia" against the Chinese (are you serious??). Here in Australia we know not to even touch a bat (e.g. Flying Fox). It is quite well known the nasty and deadly virus one can get from a lying Fox (just google it). I can't imagine that eating them is any better for you...

Is it Xenophobic if it is true? There are obviously very big cultural differences between China and Australia, and Japan for that matter, and while we normally just observe and complain to each other, in situations like this, where spitting in public is actually REALLY BAD for transmitting diseases, it is Xenophobic to say "hey stop that - it is disgusting"? I know it gives the PC police little heart-flutters, because they like to think that life is just a rose garden. For the first time in my life I felt compelled to wear masks on public transport and on planes - the ENTIRE JAL cabin crew/ground staff have been FORCED to wear masks by the airline - so, we can look at it 2 ways - either some big media-driven over-reaction and/or conspiracy against China, that all the big companies are buying into.... or perhaps there is something else to it? Maybe these companies that are making these decisions have some kind of proper advice that says "hey this isn't a joke - protect your people".

As for the Chinese Gov "stats" on the disease..... I recently watched the docudrama "Chernobyl"..... and the stats at the end of that just blew my mind.... the official Russian Gov death toll to this very day is 200ish - but the World Nuclear Energy Agency (or whatever it is called) reckons it was more like 90k..... I think I trust China as much as I trust the Soviets, when it comes to "facts".

While it is sad and terrible for the people affected in China, I don't think there is any issues with Australia closing its borders or preventing travel to affected areas. And I'm a libertarian!!

You know what, I agree with you and it seems that that is amazing because otherwise we would have little in common. I am definitely a member of what you might call the PC Police (I teach cross cultural issues in a university) so I’m a card carrying lefty. But I think in this case people are sometimes attributing the desire to not get sick to racism. It’s an indisputable fact that this is currently an issue in China, and I’ll take it further, if I’m on a plane I’m not going to be happy sitting next to someone from PRC China at the moment.

For some perspective about me - A few years back I was hospitalised in Singapore with the worst flu/pneumonia of my life and never want to repeat that experience. Also I flew through (transited) Singapore on Friday just gone wearing a mask, and my glasses constantly fell off, fogged up and I struggled to get a breath. I don’t want to have to live every day like that for the next however long if this is really that bad and it was to get to Australia ..... I feel so sorry for the people in China but I am going to look after myself and if that means being just a tiny bit xenophobic I can live with it.

 

[drron]

As for the Chinese Gov "stats" on the disease..... I recently watched the docudrama "Chernobyl"..... and the stats at the end of that just blew my mind.... the official Russian Gov death toll to this very day is 200ish - but the World Nuclear Energy Agency (or whatever it is called) reckons it was more like 90k..... I think I trust China as much as I trust the Soviets, when it comes to "facts".

The ~ 90000 deaths that was in the Chernobyl series was in fact a report by 52 scientists commissioned by Greenpeace who are antinuclear.The WHO,other UN bodies suggest an eventual death toll of ~ 4000.Some nuclear organisations suggest a lower number.

The Chernobyl series deviates from the evidence.An American bone marrow transplant physician immediately volunteered to help out but was delayed by 2 days by Russian officials.So from Day 3 he was in the hospital in Chernobyl and looked after those dying of radiation sickness.After viewing the Chernobyl series he came out saying the depiction of those early days in the hospital was mainly fictional.

 

[Chicken]

This cruise ship picked up some infected Chinese in the last trip, now around 30 crews are getting sick from the second run. I heard that cruise ships get cleaned very well, but people are still getting infected.

Thousands held on ship at Kai Tak over virus scare

 

[drron]

Though the passengers from the first run may very well have infected crew or people staying on for the second sector.No matter how the ship was cleaned could not stop that.Remember the incubation period is up to 14 days so those onboard now that may the new virus wouldn't have known they were infected.The ship left on the current trip 12 days before the ship returned to Hong Kong.
The 30 crew that were reporting feeling sick included only 3 that had a fever and were sent to hospital.As yet none have been confirmed to have the corona virus.

 

[Pushka]

Though the passengers from the first run may very well have infected crew or people staying on for the second sector.No matter how the ship was cleaned could not stop that.Remember the incubation period is up to 14 days so those onboard now that may the new virus wouldn't have known they were infected.The ship left on the current trip 12 days before the ship returned to Hong Kong.
The 30 crew that were reporting feeling sick included only 3 that had a fever and were sent to hospital.As yet none have been confirmed to have the corona virus.

Cruise ship kennel cough is rampant and does include fever, harsh cough and runny nose, all the symptoms of corona virus. I’ve picked up this twice, interestingly both on QM2 because people show no consideration for other passengers and never isolate into their cabin.

 

[offshore171]

Now a second cruise ship with a suspected Coronavirus breakout.

Two cruise ships currently in quarantine amid coronavirus fears

I wouldn’t be going within a hundred miles of a cruise ship at the moment.