Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW's final shove

New protections and compliance rules to carry NSW through to vaccination targets

In response to the evolving Delta outbreak, NSW will extend the current lockdown in Greater Sydney until the end of September, and introduce new rules targeting the local government areas of concern, where the vast majority of new cases are emerging.

www.nsw.gov.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And I am back in the "isolating due to an abundance of caution" camp as my wife visited a supermarket now listed as a Tier 2 Site 90 minutes after the time range for it being a Tier 2 Site.


While we are both fully vaccinated with no symptoms she prefers to be on the cautious side, including that vaccinated people can still infect others even if it is less likely.

Waiting took about an hour for her test to given which was completed at about 10am, and so it will be interesting see how long it takes for the result to be advised.

Only an hour wait being quite good given that the in the opposite direction to us that the testing facility is only 5 to 15 minutes to Glen Eira and St Kilda East where they are requesting everyone to get tested.

 

[Seat0B]

To bring some levity to an all too depressing thread, maybe Victoria could achieve the same effect as curfews and restrictions by doing some cloud seeding at this time of the year if there's a forecast of a sunny day

It seems that typical Melbourne winter weather is a very compelling reason to stay at home, but if the sun shines for a day, that brings everyone out.

Yes! Story in reverse, but same principle - when we lived in the USA some years ago, I can recall the first sunny day at the end of winter. Temp was 43 degrees F = 6 or 7 degrees C, and the whole neighbourhood was outdoors soaking up the sun, doing gardening, some even wearing shorts. Then the polar blast moved in dropped it back to below zero C and everyone scuttled back indoors for another few weeks of winter!

 

[OATEK]

No, masks is now all of NSW (except exercising)

Lockdown extended, curfew introduced as NSW records 644 COVID cases and four deaths

Greater Sydney's lockdown is extended until the end of September and a curfew is introduced in several local government areas as NSW records 644 new COVID-19 cases and four deaths.

www.abc.net.au

It is good practice to copy the original message to keep things in context - which was a comment about curfew and masks.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Depends what you mean by covid normal. Covid Zero, no, you can't do that by just vaccination.

"covid normal" (living with covid) means exactly that and not covid zero.


I believe that "covid normal" will be decided by reaching without any notable restrictions an acceptable number hospitalisations, severe illness and deaths (that still probably not really having been agreed to what it is).

Just declaring a vaccination rate is achieved will not mean in itself that those things have been achieved. And until it does some level of restrictions will remain (and the range of possible restrictions is vast). What the % will end up being time will tell.

The alternative is overrun, or at best deeply stressed, hospitals/health services and comprised health care for all other health issues. Now balancing all health issues is going to remain a balancing act.

NSW Health at present has the challenge trying to maintain adequate health care for all. With relatives and friends in the Vic System I know how challenging that is for them to provide it when there is active covid spread about, and the public at large all know about the problems of treatments being delayed at such times..


PS. As vaccinations continue to rise we will most likely have a transition period to true covid normal where there will be some restrictions. The issue of very young children not being vaccinated will remain leaving then vulnerable to future variants. Hopefully vaccines for the very young are not too far away.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Just because it’s a “health emergency” doesn’t mean government can do whatever it wants. This “emergency” is simply not resulting in fatalities outside of those who have elected not to be vaccinated. The measures being taken do not reflect the risk.

The latest deaths are quite telling. More and more people in the vulnerable age groups who have “had one dose”. Why one? Because they didn’t pull their finger out when they were eligible and elected to wait until they saw a risk.

You are only focusing on deaths. It's not just about that, it's about those in hospital and ICU as well. It's about the strain on the health system.

Your view is that the restrictions don't reflect the risk. My view is that they do. I guess it's a draw.

 

[Pushka]

At last the rhetoric is changing.

COVID-19 live blog: Follow live breaking news throughout the day

www.9news.com.au

Focus not on rates but hospitalisations.

 

[justinbrett]

"covid normal" (living with covid) means exactly that and not covid zero.


I believe that "covid normal" will be decided by reaching an acceptable number hospitalisations, severe illness and deaths (that still probably not really having been agreed to what it is.

Just declaring a vaccination rate is achieved will not mean in itself that those things have been achieved. And until it does some level of restrictions will remain (and the range of possible restrictions is vast). What the % will end up being time will tell.

The alternative is overrun, or at best deeply stressed, hospitals/health services and comprised health care for all other health issues. Now balancing all health issues is going to remain a balancing act.

NSW Health at present has the challenge trying to maintain adequate health care for all. With relatives and friends in the Vic System I know how challenging that is for them to provide it when there is active covid spread about, and the public at large all know about the problems of treatments being delayed at such times..

That's scaremonging and undermines the vaccination program.

You can't look at what NSW is doing now. They are sub 30% double jab. It's irrelevant to the discussion.

The doherty modelling contains ICU and death estimates. And again, we can look to the UK.

80% double jab nationally is a game changer. People have to learn to change their thinking.

 

[N860CR]

You are only focusing on deaths. It's not just about that, it's about those in hospital and ICU as well. It's about the strain on the health system.

Your view is that the restrictions don't reflect the risk. My view is that they do. I guess it's a draw.

The health system is more than capable of handling significantly higher volume than the current level. We can actually start using our Covid facilities (and should have built more of them).

If you can honestly tell me that police checkpoints and curfews are justified… well then maybe North Korea is a good option?

 

[burmans]

I am not sure in you have read the Doherty Report or not? But NSW would not seem to be pursing the preferred scenario outlined in it.

I am not saying what NSW should or should not do.

All I am saying is that that model was based on certain things. There is little point stating that one can open up based on the model if you are not following the model. That does not mean that one cannot open up. ie UK has

This should not be confused with the ability to go a different way. Based on the NSW leaks NSW is going a different way. I just think it is silly to pretend that it is doing so based on the Doherty Report when if the reports are accurate it clearly is not the case. The path (recipe) that NSW is seemingly is on is not the one mapped out in the Doherty Report.

Long post but you don't actually spell out the what, i.e. what aren't they doing?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It is good practice to copy the original message to keep things in context - which was a comment about curfew and masks.

But I responded as to which part was not 100% accurate?!?! No offence intended....

But to satisfy your suggestion:

NSW just announced curfew and masks outdoors.

I can hear Dan screaming “I told you so” 800km away.

But only in LGAs of concern not whole city.

No, masks is now all of NSW (except exercising)

Lockdown extended, curfew introduced as NSW records 644 COVID cases and four deaths

Greater Sydney's lockdown is extended until the end of September and a curfew is introduced in several local government areas as NSW records 644 new COVID-19 cases and four deaths.

www.abc.net.au

 

[OATEK]

"covid normal" (living with covid) means exactly that and not covid zero.


I believe that "covid normal" will be decided by reaching without any notable restrictions an acceptable number hospitalisations, severe illness and deaths (that still probably not really having been agreed to what it is.

Just declaring a vaccination rate is achieved will not mean in itself that those things have been achieved. And until it does some level of restrictions will remain (and the range of possible restrictions is vast). What the % will end up being time will tell.

The alternative is overrun, or at best deeply stressed, hospitals/health services and comprised health care for all other health issues. Now balancing all health issues is going to remain a balancing act.

NSW Health at present has the challenge trying to maintain adequate health care for all. With relatives and friends in the Vic System I know how challenging that is for them to provide it when there is active covid spread about, and the public at large all know about the problems of treatments being delayed at such times..

Yes, agree that the two key measures around vax rates are yet to be determined, and are only partly connected. Death rates in line with flu, or not too disparate can be argued as likely to gain community acceptance. It is a "known" factor if we consider it against flu.

But hospital beds used just for covid-19 patients is the unknown. And the point at which vaccinations prevent overloading hospitals is an unknown, and will only become clearer over time. The 70% and 80% vax marks will allow some measurement, and it may result in the rate at which infections are within capacity might be much higher. The choice then may be to continue to apply restrictions (eg mask wearing), or grow the health system to meet demand for services.

Unlocking at 70% and 80% may be necessary to test the models and bring greater clarity around the whole subject matter.

 

[N860CR]

You can't look at what NSW is doing now. They are sub 30% double jab. It's irrelevant to the discussion.
The doherty modelling contains ICU and death estimates. And again, we can look to the UK.

Exactly. At only 30% we’ve got deaths and serious illness down to very low levels. Can only imagine how it will be at 80%.

UK is a good example. Very high cases throughout, cold and damp climate and a solid public health system. We tick the last of those off, but fortunately not the first two. Given the UK was hitting tens of thousands of cases a day (even at below 70% vaccination) and the NHS held up ok, I’m sure we’ll be fine.

 

[justinbrett]

Unlocking at 70% and 80% may be necessary to test the models and bring greater clarity around the whole subject matter.

It's fully detailed in the Doherty modelling for a variety of vaccination scenarios (cases, hospitalisations, ICU, deaths).

I'm not convinced OP has actually read it.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

You are only focusing on deaths. It's not just about that, it's about those in hospital and ICU as well. It's about the strain on the health system.

Your view is that the restrictions don't reflect the risk. My view is that they do. I guess it's a draw.

It will never be a draw for some - you're naive.

Let it rip - except now NSW has a few, virtually no deaths, keep lockdown at the current levels until we get vaccinated......you're naive.

(Q: Do you think they are my words?!)

 

[burmans]

Jacinta as well.

That's just the press trying to liven things up. They didn't have genomic testing previously, she was asked about the outcome and confirmed it was linked to Sydney. I didnt hear any blame in her statement just confirming the facts but of course that doesn't suit the news outlets.

 

[moa999]

You can't look at what NSW is doing now. They are sub 30% double jab. It's irrelevant to the discussion.

But remember double jabs doesn't significantly reduce infections transmissibility.
And in younger groups it might be worse as they are more likely to be asymptomatic and take more risks.

Australia has now at least crossed 80% first dose in almost all significantly at risk age group, but still in the 50-60% range for 2nd dose.

 

[N860CR]

It will never be a draw for some - you're naive.

Let it rip - except now NSW has a few, virtually no deaths, keep lockdown at the current levels until we get vaccinated......you're naive.

(Q: Do you think they are my words?!)

What are you words. Expect that we can go through a global pandemic with no illnesses and no deaths? Expect that we can reduce positive tests results in a global pandemic to zero?

 

[justinbrett]

But remember double jabs doesn't significantly reduce infections transmissibility.
And in younger groups it might be worse as they are more likely to be asymptomatic and take more risks.

Australia has now at least crossed 80% first dose in almost all significantly at risk age group, but still in the 50-60% range for 2nd dose.

View attachment 256039

Again, the modelling covers that - read people!

Doherty modelling expects 60K cases a day, which is probably worst case, given this is more than the UK is getting now (and they are 80% double jabbed) and they have 3x the population in a much more dense area.

 

[andye]

Disappointed about the curfew decision. Will affect my family negligibly..
But,
I do think at some point the NSW exponential growth will slow (whether because the currently infected are the most likely to be in an exposed role or because vaccine rates will kick in)
Then...
The slowing will be held up as an example of why curfews are effective and must be invoked at the drop of a hat