2019 Federal Election Discussion

[clipped_wings]

Surplus protected? They have to deliver one first. I’d put a big bet on our national debt being greater at the next election than it is now.

Hmmm. Someone else placed a big bet against the Coalition.

And how's that working out for them right now?

 

[Quickstatus]

The losing side has been going on about selfishness of the Coalition voters.

Selfishness is thinking you can keep raising electricity prices and saving the world while ignoring the plight of thousands who have their electricity cut off because they can’t afford it.

 

[Quickstatus]

I'd like to apologise in advance for what seems to be the election of Jacki Lambie to the senate from Tasmania.

Maybe make her Speaker/President of the Upper House?

 

[Quickstatus]

Second is what seems to be called the 'shy Tory syndrome' - conservative voters not expressing their true intentions for whatever reason, but when they get the chance in the privacy of a poling booth - they go for it.

When people get shouted down for their views, they will shut up or tell you what you want to hear... until Election Day. Those “quiet” voters that ScoMo alluded to

 

[drron]

Well it does amuse me that people that acknowledge that they don't support the Coalition yet know the internal workings of the Liberal Party.The problem for the last 8 or so years was and still is Turnbull.He is a backstabber and the source of most leaks along with Julie Bishop.Even after they had got rid og Abbott they still ran a campaign to denigrate him and make him look like the destroyer.
The problem was that the party took too long to get rid of Turnbull.Yes he was thought of highly by the left but a lot of Liberals were of the opposite view.Whilst he was PM the party haemorrhaged members.Here in a reasonably safe coalition seat they 3 weeks out did not have enough supporters to man all polling booths.

However it may have been a bad election to win as the world economic outlook really isn't rosy.Though I am sticking to my forecast that the major crash will be ~2026
Also this may be the same as Keating's unwinnable election in 1992.The next time the ALP was smashed.The same is likely to happen to the Libs next time.

On the more optimistic side I hope the country can have a proper discussion on important matters such as Energy policy.Going down the track of 50-100% renewables is crazy.And for those who think renewables are cheaper than coal or other energy generation remember you must take into account the subsidies.In 2018 for wind they were $74 per MWH,Solar $214 per MWH and for coal 40 cents per MWH.

Renewable energy subsidies to top $2.8b a year up to 2030

Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar will receive subsidies of about $3 billion a year up to 2030, according to new research.

www.afr.com

And the nuclear option has to be discussed.

 

[RooFlyer]

Maybe make her Speaker/President of the Upper House?

Thats. Not. Funny.

 

[coriander]

And the nuclear option has to be discussed.

That has as much chance of getting up as the abolition of negative gearing.

 

[coriander]

Selfishness is thinking you can keep raising electricity prices and saving the world

I've yet to see the $500 drop in energy prices promised after abolition of the carbon tax over the last 6 years.

 

[DC3]

... and the Mad Monk has left the Abbey.

 

[drron]

That has as much chance of getting up as the abolition of negative gearing.

But it needs to be discussed,
Why has France with a lot of nuclear energy have lower prices and less emissions than Germany who are shutting down nuclear and ramping up renewables.
Why in California is the electricity price going up faster than other states when they have the highest penetration of renewable?And since they closed one nuclear plant their emissions are also rising.

 

[Quickstatus]

I've yet to see the $500 drop in energy prices promised after abolition of the carbon tax over the last 6 years.

That’s because they went to the other side of the equation and blew up some coal fired power stations and also won’t build more baseload. Reduce supply.....

Mind you, I do think a transition away from coal is a good idea. But renewables are not baseload. Abundant baseload makes electricity cheap, not dispatchable “jump in jump out” generation chasing the highest prices before they jump in

 

[Quickstatus]

Thats. Not. Funny.

But the easiest way to neuter someone is to make them the Speaker (LH or UH).

 

[love_the_life]

Drron, you do agree though that the right/more conservative members of the coalition government have had a powerful position? The party was dragged much more to the right under their influence.

I tend to disagree on your assessment of Turnbull - to get the top job he had to court the right and was effectively without the ability to put his stamp on government. Many, including me, had high hopes but in the end he couldn’t perform. IMO Abbott was much more of a destabilising influence both within the house and through his many public speeches/pronouncements.

 

[moa999]

No way Lambie would take Senate President. Prefers her own soapbox.

Some fascinating chart plots on twitter on booth by booth swings in capital cities from this and following posts

https://twitter.com/x/status/1130015566872436736

 

[DC3]

... I tend to disagree on your assessment of Turnbull - to get the top job he had to court the right and was effectively without the ability to put his stamp on government. Many, including me, had high hopes but in the end he couldn’t perform ..

Couldn’t agree more. High hopes all round but turned out to be a real Fizzer. Such a disappointment.

 

[moa999]

the right/more conservative members of the coalition government have had a powerful position? The party was dragged much more to the right under their influence.

Where the coalition goes now will be interesting.
They've lost Abbott as the senior right, but also lost moderates in Turnbull, Bishop and Pyne

On Turnbull I think he knew he had to satisfy the right to keep his job, just struggled with the balancing act.
Anyone who though the LNP would become centrist under Turnbull was deluded

 

[cwd]

On the more optimistic side I hope the country can have a proper discussion on important matters such as Energy policy.Going down the track of 50-100% renewables is crazy.And for those who think renewables are cheaper than coal or other energy generation remember you must take into account the subsidies.In 2018 for wind they were $74 per MWH,Solar $214 per MWH and for coal 40 cents per MWH.

Those figures come from a report commission by the Minerals Council that was released over 2 years ago. I think the solar figure includes feed-in tariffs, which aren't really relevant to federal policy, and the high end of which are being phased out. The wind figure seems to match with the price of a LGC for the RET. The price for these has continued to fall as more capacity comes online, and given supply will exceed demand, you can expect these to rapidly head towards $0 in the few years.
The regulator says:

LGC spot prices fell from above $71.90 at the date of our last market update on 4 October 2018 to $39 on 14 February 2019.

• LGC forward prices for 2020 and 2021 have also fallen and are at $23.60 and $14.75 respectively

Large-scale generation certificate market update - February 2019

Both the RET and Carbon Price have proved to be effective at reducing emissions, and lamb roasts haven't risen to $100 as predicted. If we put market mechanisms in place, we can reduce our emissions soon with little financial pain. So good reason to be optimistic.

 

[serfty]

Just jumped onto AFF - and saw this thread. Was there an election? Who won?

Nobody won.

Dont they know that until Antony Greene says who won, the result is unknown?

Mon 20 May: 9:12am - ABC chief elections analyst Antony Green: Coalition to form majority Government with at least 77 seats

 

[amaroo]

<snip>

He is a backstabber and the source of most leaks along with Julie Bishop.

Jeez, she looks like a clown after that red shoe performance on Saturday. Can't imagine why she thought that would be a good idea..... clearly she swallowed the bait, hook, line, and sinker from Penny and Billy, and punted on a ALP win and the gifting of a first class diplomatic posting.

Wonder if Abbott will get posting she wanted..... that would be a nice rework of getting the boot

 

[get me outta here]

I wish you’d stop talking sense.
The Minerals Council is sooo much more reliable, not.
Just look at how they cost an election before with their massive lobbying spend.

Thanks

Those figures come from a report commission by the Minerals Council that was released over 2 years ago. I think the solar figure includes feed-in tariffs, which aren't really relevant to federal policy, and the high end of which are being phased out. The wind figure seems to match with the price of a LGC for the RET. The price for these has continued to fall as more capacity comes online, and given supply will exceed demand, you can expect these to rapidly head towards $0 in the few years.
The regulator says:

Large-scale generation certificate market update - February 2019

Both the RET and Carbon Price have proved to be effective at reducing emissions, and lamb roasts haven't risen to $100 as predicted. If we put market mechanisms in place, we can reduce our emissions soon with little financial pain. So good reason to be optimistic.