27th February Big Qantas announcement

[Mattg]

Not to read into this too much, but since the thread is already full of pure speculation, I don't imagine QF would be having a sale on fares to JNB right now if they were planning to cut QF63/64.

 

[JohnK]

Not to read into this too much, but since the thread is already full of pure speculation, I don't imagine QF would be having a sale on fares to JNB right now if they were planning to cut QF63/64.

A day or two before VS announced they were cutting SYD-HKG services there was a sale announced for airfares through to end 2014.

 

[markis10]

A day or two before VS announced they were cutting SYD-HKG services there was a sale announced for airfares through to end 2014.

It could also be a tactical Sale repsonding to another carriers sale.

 

[Brettmcg]

Not to read into this too much, but since the thread is already full of pure speculation, I don't imagine QF would be having a sale on fares to JNB right now if they were planning to cut QF63/64.

Easy to accommodate pax on other services once you've cut the route. Not so easy to fill cabins once you've made an announcement that you're exiting the route and the travelling public mistakenly assume that means it's effective immediately.

 

[desiredusername]

Since we're speculating, is the <MD> getting a one way ticket <back home>?

 

[Supersonic Swinger]

Aw gawd - don't give them any more ideas! :shock: Would doing this somehow help out the bottom line of QF or be some sort of precursor to separating out and trying to float/flog off the QFF Frequenty Flyer part of the business?

You would think that the competative prescence of VA would prevent any such enhancement at the moment but its still possible I guess.

I had my tongue firmly planted in my cheek Based on the "Points + Pay" and "Qantas Store" rates, each QFF point is worth a base of roughly 0.8 cents, suspect when they set the N, O and Q fares they'll factor this in.

 

[BD1959]

Not to read into this too much, but since the thread is already full of pure speculation, I don't imagine QF would be having a sale on fares to JNB right now if they were planning to cut QF63/64.

That makes QF9/10 safe then. Sales ex-UK on that route last month and this.

Regards,

BD

 

[fresherbill]

I would not be surprised to see N,O and Q becoming non earn fare buckets.

Gosh, if that happened... :evil:

I reckon it'd be more likely to be a fractional earning rate like 25% or 50% etc. I stopped flying SQ when they started doing this. And for me this'd just remove a barrier to flying MH or CX over QF.

 

[eastwest101]

Gosh, if that happened... :evil:

I reckon it'd be more likely to be a fractional earning rate like 25% or 50% etc. I stopped flying SQ when they started doing this. And for me this'd just remove a barrier to flying MH or CX over QF.

Thats what I was thinking as well - maybe certain fare classes go to 25% or only 50% earn and without the min 1000 QFF pts and possibly earn less or even 0 status credits. There is certainly some precedent for that as SQ and maybe CX and probably many other airlines have "non FF earning classes".

But it would be sabotaging their own Frequent Flyer marketing campaign built up over years and years, and I can't see it happening while Wooloworths are giving away triple points offers every second weekend, as the optics would look pretty bad and it would further skew the points earn to be a frequent spenders program and not a frequent flyer program.


Most people here think that route cuts, accelerated retirement of older aircraft and the resultant legacy costs and staff that would be the most likely announcement on the 27th Feb - along with the eye watering loss figures. We shall see on the 27th.

 

[Noob]

On AN's last day of trading they had a fleet of around 130 active aircraft. QF held a fleet of around 195 aircraft at the same time.

Currently (excluding JQ) the Qantas Group has a fleet of around 202 aircraft at its disposal. According to VA's website they have approx. 80 aircraft in operation.

It's almost unfathomable that VA would be able to fill that void with any kind of urgency. During the AN collapse DJ were successfully able to supplement supply of seats to the market, but not at anywhere near the percentage or rate they would be forced to under a QF collapse.

Regardless of what you might think of QF management/product/service etc. one has to concede that it plays a very significant role in the Australian transport landscape and that an aviation sector without QF is a very grim prospect.

VA has a current fleet of 136 Aircraft. (Not including non-operational aircraft or Tigerair)

Here's a comparison of AN's fleet to QF at the time & VA's fleet to QF today:

AN:QF = 66:100
VA:QF = 67:100


There's a very good chance VA could very quickly borrow aircraft from their partner airlines - And, I imagine a joint push from VA/SQ/EY/NZ would hold a fair bit of weight with aircraft companies, not to mention the huge orders EY already has and any potentially unused aircraft belonging to it's investments. Also, NZ is retiring 767s as their 787s arrive & SQ is retiring some 777s etc.

The reality is, they could get short term aircraft to fill the gap if they needed them.

Best case scenario, this never has to happen!

 

[markis10]

VA has a current fleet of 136 Aircraft. (Not including non-operational aircraft or Tigerair)

Here's a comparison of AN's fleet to QF at the time & VA's fleet to QF today:

AN:QF = 66:100
VA:QF = 67:100


There's a very good chance VA could very quickly borrow aircraft from their partner airlines - And, I imagine a joint push from VA/SQ/EY/NZ would hold a fair bit of weight with aircraft companies, not to mention the huge orders EY already has and any potentially unused aircraft belonging to it's investments. Also, NZ is retiring 767s as their 787s arrive & SQ is retiring some 777s etc.

The reality is, they could get short term aircraft to fill the gap if they needed them.

Best case scenario, this never has to happen!

I would not be surprised if we see a 787 in VA colors before QF.

 

[BD1959]

Most people here think that route cuts, accelerated retirement of older aircraft and the resultant legacy costs and staff that would be the most likely announcement on the 27th Feb - along with the eye watering loss figures. We shall see on the 27th.

QF have announced route cuts and accelerated retirement plans previously without the hoo-haa that's preceding this announcement. My guess is that it needs to be something fairly dramatic in terms of "stemming the losses" to warrant the heads-up from QF.

Regards,

BD

 

[Mr_Orange]

My 2c. QF are going to buy VA, thus restoring balance to the Australian skies .

 

[eastwest101]

QF have announced route cuts and accelerated retirement plans previously without the hoo-haa that's preceding this announcement. My guess is that it needs to be something fairly dramatic in terms of "stemming the losses" to warrant the heads-up from QF.

Yes agree - certainly QFi cutting routes/fleet/capacity is hardly new or earth shattering news, actually seems to be the business as usual/standard operating procedure for the last 10 or so years.

Are we still awaiting the "wait for the big announcement after the Federal Election" news that was referred to in mid-late 2013? Or was that the uniform relaunch that has already happened?

I remember people speculating on whether the "after the Fed election" part was merely a convenient marker in time to use or had more implications about Qf/Government relations or other IR/Industrial/ownership/large scale job loss or QSA implications.

 

[willjd]

Slightly off topic...but....Was just reading this article New BA routes about new routes and changes with the new aircraft that BA are getting. Appreciate its a completely different market but just such a refreshing change to read something upbeat rather than reading about the latest cut/removal/"enhancement" at Qantas.

 

[Isochronous]

I'm starting to think that QF should sell-off most of JQ (perhaps retain a small minority shareholding) like what BA did with GO! and focus on being a premium carrier instead of the dual-brand strategy nonsense.

 

[cmon0005]

I'm starting to think that QF should sell-off most of JQ (perhaps retain a small minority shareholding) like what BA did with GO! and focus on being a premium carrier instead of the dual-brand strategy nonsense.

Agreed, and codeshare with premium carriers in Asia!

 

[docjames]

I'm starting to think that QF should sell-off most of JQ (perhaps retain a small minority shareholding) like what BA did with GO! and focus on being a premium carrier instead of the dual-brand strategy nonsense.

Sell 49% to AirAsia (and have them manage it)??

 

[Robbi]

Giving this more thought I think QF is going to have to do something with those A380's that they are stuck with. So I think you will se an invigorated focus on the domestic market and a few regionals, US and LHR markets to stay a major focus. big news might be the total dumping of Asia, some to JQ and some gone.

What is the 'problem' with the A380's?

 

[markis10]

This route has been in existence for over 60 years & is vital for those living on the East coast of Australia & Even Our Kiwi's neighbours who seek to arrive in JNB, ( many transfer on to various destinations in the southern & mid African regions as JNB is the main hub airport for the region a bit like LHR or FRA is for Europe)

How is it vital for the Kiwis, they codeshare ex PER???