27th February Big Qantas announcement

[Aussie_flyer]

hoarding a million points in any frequent flyer program in my opinion is a silly thing to do. Why risk it ?

 

[dajop]

YBut, I would say building a pile of points and storing them in a FF account has risks - there is no doubt that their value has dropped over the years and will certainly continue to do so. It's a bit like a property boom.....for 10, 15, 20 years prices rise and then BANG! Massive correction and a whole lot of value disappears in a heartbeat.

I'd sort of disagree, the rise and rise of fuel surcharges, coupled with the ability to buy points (and therefore J redemptions) from programs such as LifeMiles or even AA, has steadily and continuously eroded the value of QF points over the years, coupled with a few shocks here and there to redemption rates. At least though, for now, for anybody who shops at Woolies there's a bottom point of 0.66c per pt - and that's what I now use in comparing QF fares to non points earning fares on other airlines.

 

[sydstar]

I imagine those red lines on the QF route map are going to become harder to see The Qantas media release today was interesting; noting that rumours about reducing LHR is "inaccurate". No mention of DXB remaining the stop for QF1/9

I'm predicting a bit of a bloodbath next week with route cuts :shock:

I can only see LAX, DFW and LHR(QF1) being safe bets to remain
Trans-tasman can't have much done to it (thanks ACCC!)
JNB could go either way - some real mixed messages here - huge sale currently vs 'route unprofitable without SA codeshare'
I have a bad feeling SYD-NRT going to JQ (please not)
SCL might survive - a monopoly niche market there
JFK tag leg - 50/50 - the aircraft is doing nothing at LAX, is there enough cargo to cover it?
NOU, MNL, CGK and BKK to JQ
HKG safe but dependent upon 330 refit - need that new shiny lounge for something. Same with PVG. SYD-SIN down to 1 daily on 330.
PER-SIN to JQ

I really hope I'm wrong with the route cuts

I can also see accelerated retirement of non-refurb 747's, with increased 330 flying into Asia using QCCA crew on the 330. Perhaps even increase usage of Jetconnect crew on the 380.

Can't see any 789 annoucements being postive either given the financial state. They'll probably also have some 'management restructure' which will amount to nothing more than some title changes...

 

[zainman]

Hoarding points is the wrong strategy IMHO. Points are just a number on a website until you use them. Earn and Burn.

 

[Pushka]

Just received a phone call from partner flying Sydney to Adelaide on a meal service. The meal was a (poor) joke. People were just looking at it in disgust. Maybe the cuts are already in effect.

 

[Kendall Roy]

Worst case for me would be QF dropping OW membership. But perhaps that's a trick they've got saved for the next round of shenanigans!

 

[amaroo]

I'd sort of disagree, the rise and rise of fuel surcharges, coupled with the ability to buy points (and therefore J redemptions) from programs such as LifeMiles or even AA, has steadily and continuously eroded the value of QF points over the years, coupled with a few shocks here and there to redemption rates. At least though, for now, for anybody who shops at Woolies there's a bottom point of 0.66c per pt - and that's what I now use in comparing QF fares to non points earning fares on other airlines.

I remember when QFF cut something like 30%-40% out off the value of the points....re-deemption rates increased with a flick of a pen. This sort of action wreaks havoc with ROI numbers.

FWIW - I value all points I earn as free/zero cost - I see the fee/fuel fine charge as the only thing I'm paying to obtain some decent F or J seats.

 

[s2ksimon]

Here is my tip for the 27th - a shareholder benefit is introduced.

 

[drron]

So this is the CEO's response to the crisis?

Decimate Qantas further and expect the company to survive. Any hint of reducing obscene executive salaries by at least 50%?

This CEO had a 50% salary increase recently. He is earning more in a year than I have managed my entire life. At least I make a difference.

Now that's unfair.Most here believe AJ has made a difference at QF.

 

[QF029]

JFK tag leg - 50/50 - the aircraft is doing nothing at LAX, is there enough cargo to cover it?

Maybe that's why the chauffeur drive announcement was delayed?

 

[markis10]

JFK tag leg - 50/50 - the aircraft is doing nothing at LAX, is there enough cargo to cover it?
NOU, MNL, CGK and BKK to JQ
HKG safe but dependent upon 330 refit

I suggest you need to look at the figures, QF have high loads on the tag, I suspect it will stay.
Same goes for BKK, the others are gone and I would throw HNL on the mix, give it to JQ and their 30% cost advantage with the 787s. QF will order 4 777s to cover DFW and BNE, funded by A380 cancellations, accelerate 747/767 retirements, route an A380 via SIN to LHR killing off one or two SIN services. Jetbase to close and be leveled in two years, terminals sold with lease back.

 

[zainman]

I suggest you need to look at the figures, QF have high loads on the tag, I suspect it will stay.
Same goes for BKK, the others are gone and I would throw HNL on the mix, give it to JQ and their 30% cost advantage with the 787s. QF will order 4 777s to cover DFW and BNE, funded by A380 cancellations, accelerate 747/767 retirements, route an A380 via SIN to LHR killing off one or two SIN services. Jetbase to close and be leveled in two years, terminals sold with lease back.

Take a deep breath LOL. Where is all this coming from? Wishful thinking?

 

[codash1099]

QF is beginning to remind me of the old story about the fabulous Foo Foo bird. It flies in ever decreasing circles until it disappears up its own fundamental orifice.

 

[Awesom Andy]

If they increase codeshares from EK between DXB-LON, then in effect, they have not reduced services, but merely getting someone else to do the work. IMO, that's still a correct interpretation of the comment.

I've got about 520 SCs worth of travel planned in the next 3 months, although I won't be booking any of it until I hear what they have to say on the 27th.

 

[Mattg]

If some of these predictions come true, it will be a sad day and our once great airline will look like an absolute joke! I understand that AJ wants to cut costs but what's the point of having an airline if it doesn't fly anywhere, and no-one wants to fly it?!

IMHO they should be focusing more on increasing revenue by opening, rather than cutting even more routes and by improving the airline. E.g. They should be accelerating the A330 refurbishments, not accelerating even more aircraft retirements!

I think they would be silly to drop NOU as it is just a few times a week using mainly domestic 737s and I find it hard to believe they could be making a loss considering it is a "premium" market with particularly high airfares.

I don't think they should be trying to axe Asian routes either... is that what their "Asian strategy" is all about? Doesn't sound like a great strategy to me! The only route I could see realistically axed is QF5/6 IF one of the LHR flights is re-routed through SIN. But I find that unlikely as all flights from AU-SIN would have to be re-timed back to the late evening arrival if they were to meet the flight in Singapore. I also think they should be adding a SYD-PEK flight... at the moment the only direct connection between Australia's and China's capital is an Air China overnight flight on an A332.

And as for giving routes to Jetstar, I have no interest in flying them, especially long-haul!

 

[Awesom Andy]

If some of these predictions come true, it will be a sad day and our once great airline will look like an absolute joke!

I've sure we've said that a lot of times in recent years...

 

[JohnPhelan]

I have a feeling the last Per-Sin flight is going to go and QF will abandon Per completely.

Does QF make money on that service? If yes, it will stay; if no, it should go.

 

[hutch]

I suggest you need to look at the figures, QF have high loads on the tag, I suspect it will stay.
Same goes for BKK, the others are gone and I would throw HNL on the mix, give it to JQ and their 30% cost advantage with the 787s. QF will order 4 777s to cover DFW and BNE, funded by A380 cancellations, accelerate 747/767 retirements, route an A380 via SIN to LHR killing off one or two SIN services. Jetbase to close and be leveled in two years, terminals sold with lease back.

I'd suspect its unlikely QF to order any new planes... especially a plane not currently in their fleet. As for route cuts, its reasonable to suggest we will see some, whether its as bad as you predict, I don't think it will be - and I hope I am right.

 

[Isochronous]

Sale and leaseback of terminals makes a lot of sense.

Hockey should make it the condition of any guarantee that it be invested in the international business, so we can see the 789 enter the QFi fleet within 12 months and launch new services to SFO, PEK, and BOM.

Could they also switch QF21/22 from NRT to HND?

 

[Awesom Andy]

Hockey should make it the condition of any guarantee that it be invested in the international business, so we can see the 789 enter the QFi fleet within 12 months and launch new services to SFO, PEK, and BOM.

Could they also switch QF21/22 from NRT to HND?

Given the 787's reliability (or the lack of which), I'm happy to let JQ play with it for the time being.

Can't see them switching from NRT to HND. GK is based in NRT, so that's pretty much abandoning your own child, figuratively speaking.