27th February Big Qantas announcement

[drewbles]

Maybe Berlin Brandenberg will become a new European hub?

Maybe it'll open first. *maybe*

 

[Flying Fox]

Boeing don't have a launch customer for the type yet, it would be a very handy hat for management to point to the future of QFi, especially if they could get some older 777s from EK to use in the interim, as first delivery for the 777x is due in 2020. This might be tempting given the lack of an immediate capital commitment requirement...

I thought that EK, QR & LH we're launch customers for the 777X-9's & 777X-8's.

 

[jetlagger]

I doubt it with the recent routing changes and the introduction of new competition from JQ and PR

The pax & freight loads were/are always in the higher percentiles.

 

[moa999]

A 777w would allow QF to sell 50 more seats ex DFW and load the belly with cargo versus passenger baggage only, there is about a 20% difference in yield for the same pax load on a 777 vs 747. Even UA understand it as does BA, QF is a slow learner, while NZ will be getting more 777s within 12 months of ordering.

Confused here.
50 more? The 747 is bigger than a 777.
Yield? DFW-BNE/SYD will be effectively controlled by prices on LAX-BNE/SYD for most pax - I don't think by downgrading you can get a premium

 

[Awesom Andy]

50 more? The 747 is bigger than a 777.

The 744ER has to fly with empty seats just to make it back to BNE without a fuel stop.

 

[Robbi]

The 744ER has to fly with empty seats just to make it back to BNE without a fuel stop.

And the 777?

 

[cove]

Qantas just needs to cut $5 off the cost of flying us or charge us $5 more. That will stop the losses.
Then to make money there will be some much bigger changes needed and not everyone will be pleased.

 

[markis10]

And the 777?

Can fly with fifty more passengers and a full belly of freight while burning less fuel, last time I crunched the numbers its around $100k per flight ahead.

 

[daturtle]

Can fly with fifty more passengers and a full belly of freight while burning less fuel, last time I crunched the numbers its around $100k per flight ahead.

I think you should take Peter Cosgrove's seat.

Red Roo are you listenining?

 

[eastwest101]

I don't get the replace 747s with 777s thing.
9 of the 747 have just had substantial refurbishment and are relatively young and fully depreciated. The others are going anyway.

While you may save $s in fuel, you will pay extra in addidtional depreciation/interest/lease costs.

You will also lock yourself into another problem in a few years when other airlines get the new 777s that will probably have 15-20% better burn.

In my mind QF is better of skipping the current 777 generation but getting early delivery of the next gen 777, or big A350

I think you sort of have some good points there moa999 - QF really are in a quandry by missing the boat on the B777 - as markis10 alludes to - the actual performance and range are superior to the B747-400ER for the DFW flights but the problem is that QF have painted themselves into a corner where even leasing some current model or near new B777s they would have to either bring a new type into the fleet (with all the consequential costs training etc) and add the costs of buying/leasing current model B777s (compared to the B747ERS that are fully owned and depreciated and still have an effective few years life in them and have just been refurbed). Even if QFi magically got B777s flying tomorrow then they would really have just caught up with every other long haul carrier that operates the current B777.

The next model 777-9X or -10X or indeed the A350 are a 2020 aircraft but are an option that looks like a "paper aeroplane", if QF haven't learnt any lessons from the A380 and B787 debacles (where the aircraft was late/delayed and they had this weird cargo cult mentality that the A380 & B787 would be the savior of the entire QF group) then I guess QF could replace the B747-400ERs with next generation B777X or A350s and bet the farm that whatever they order will be on time and will meet performance targets (meanwhile losing money hand over fist with current aircraft until 2020ish).

So I see what you are saying about "skipping" a whole generation of aircraft and leapfrogging to the next - but that relies on the fact that the business stays profitable/alive during that period. i.e. no point having the first mover advantage of an A350 or B777X on the order books if you go broke before the delivery date.

 

[Awesom Andy]

I think it's actually somewhat feasible to get a fleet of 77W. Say we start to get them in 2015, each plane has a useful life of roughly 14 - 16 years (which is the average standard of an airline in a developed country), and they would be due for replacements around 2030. If the A350-1000 or the B777X is a 2020 aircraft, add in a couple of years of delays, and a few more years to iron the bugs out, the time frame is just about right.

The only problem is, the 77W is in demand and you can't get them in a short time frame even if you want to.

 

[markis10]

The only problem is, the 77W is in demand and you can't get them in a short time frame even if you want to.

You can get them to lease pretty quickly, as NZ have proven recently with more ordered for delivery within 12 months.

 

[maninblack]

In my mind QF is better of skipping the current 777 generation but getting early delivery of the next gen 777, or big A350

Not if you are going to die in the meanwhile.

Changing the topic a little we really cannot blame AJ for most of this. He is suffering under the fleet decisions made before he became CEO but he has hardly been nimble on fleet issues some might argue.

 

[eastwest101]

Not if you are going to die in the meanwhile.

Changing the topic a little we really cannot blame AJ for most of this. He is suffering under the fleet decisions made before he became CEO but he has hardly been nimble on fleet issues some might argue.

True that - QF fleet planning has been as nimble as an blindfolded elderly elephant on mogodon.....

 

[Oxy]

EK has 777's, and would like some involvement across the Pacific, although I don't know how access rights play into it.

 

[Awesom Andy]

EK has 777's, and would like some involvement across the Pacific, although I don't know how access rights play into it.

I think they're much more interested in having A380s flying across the Pacific. They are using QF at the moment, but they want to be able to market (if not operate) RTW with A380s.

 

[Oxy]

I think they're much more interested in having A380s flying across the Pacific. They are using QF at the moment, but they want to be able to market (if not operate) RTW with A380s.

Yes and I bet they could fill them too. I thought maybe QF could offer them Pacific access, in exchange for a lease/wet lease of 777?

 

[JohnK]

I think it's actually somewhat feasible to get a fleet of 77W.

With 3-4-3 across in economy?

 

[daturtle]

With 3-4-3 across in economy?

I don't find that window seat appealing for the SYD-DFW flight...

 

[ckck]

On the 27th of Feb there is going to be a huge party at AJ's house and everyone is invited.