Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[MEL_Traveller]

We’ve gone 18 months and not achieved anything really. The same knee jerk reactions. Only saving grace is we have a vaccine that is being rolled out too slowly.

This obsession certain people have with “lockdowns” is quite fascinating. Reading the response from some members of the public and some on this forum, you’d think they want a national lockdown every time someone sneezes. I guess there are plenty in this country who have the benefit of not needing to work or pay bills. That’s about the only way I can understand their bizarre opinions.

Covid Zero is not happening. Ever. Why we can’t accept that is beyond me.

Covid zero may not happen, but zero hospitalisations and deaths from covid is a potential reality. We just have to wait for the vaccine roll out.

The vaccine will be offered to everyone who wants it in just a few months time. Worth the wait IMO.

 

[suze2000]

Let's start enforcing the existing rules before we resort to making them harsher....

It's clear from the Melb experience last year that the existing rules are not strict enough. Blind Freddie can see that.

 

[RooFlyer]

I didnt argue against anyone consulting a GP if they want to, i simply stated the fact that there are approved recommended vaccines for cohorts and if you choose the recoomended one you can get that vaccine via a state hub without a GP consult.

That may be what you meant to write, but it isn't the para of yours that I replied to, sorry.

 

[suze2000]

Covid Zero is not happening. Ever. Why we can’t accept that is beyond me.

I agree, but aggressive suppression IS achievable. You only have to travel from MEL to BNE to see the benefits of living an almost covid-free life. (ETA: also witness the number of people flocking to QLD for their holidays) And also the recent small outbreaks in MEL and BNE and PER were suppressed with short, sharp lockdowns, so it IS achievable. As long as our PM's stupid neoliberal ideology doesn't prevent other people in power from acting swiftly and decisively.

 

[antycbr]

It's clear from the Melb experience last year that the existing rules are not strict enough. Blind Freddie can see that.

Gladys needs to stop pleading. It’s not working.

I’m in favour right now of outdoor masks and a curfew for one week as it’s the shock value that cuts through. Plus cancel all police leave city wide and get every available police vehicle on the road with high visibility traffic stops to check why people are out.

One week of these measures might get the non compliance rate down.

 

[OATEK]

Honestly in an internet age - everything (groceries, Bunnigs, etc) can be click and collect or delivered, except for the small percentage of the population without internet.

Click and collect still may require people to enter a store to collect, and often it is in the back or out of the way place so as not to use valuable display areas.

I agree, but aggressive suppression IS achievable. You only have to travel from MEL to BNE to see the benefits of living an almost covid-free life. (ETA: also witness the number of people flocking to QLD for their holidays) And also the recent small outbreaks in MEL and BNE and PER were suppressed with short, sharp lockdowns, so it IS achievable. As long as our PM's stupid neoliberal ideology doesn't prevent other people in power from acting swiftly and decisively.

This is frankly a total furphy IMHO. I don't believe there is anything in the PM's so called ideology that prevents state or territory governments acting decisively based on the circumstances they face. Pushing the buck up hill takes a lot of energy away from dealing with matters at the coal face. [P.S. Don't you just love being able to throw a few mixed metaphors into a post.]

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I think NSW and the Cth were trying to prove to the rest of Australia that the NSW was... ummm... 'gold standard', and that lockdowns and other restrictions were not needed. I wonder if NSW's reluctance to go in hard and early was because of this alliance?

 

[N860CR]

Covid zero may not happen, but zero hospitalisations and deaths from covid is a potential reality. We just have to wait for the vaccine roll out.

The vaccine will be offered to everyone who wants it in just a few months time. Worth the wait IMO.

I’ve been hearing this for over 6 months now and yes it’s improving, but this is still not a long term strategy. We also don’t have the benefit of having some kind of natural immunity in Australia.

So the current argument is “the Sydney lockdown isn’t hard enough! Lock them up. Make them show papers!”. Despite this, we’re still having virtually no cases daily (50 out of Sydney’s 6 million strong population).

This “lockdown” has basically closed venues where people can congregate in a controlled manner (ie QR Codes, capacity limits, physical distancing) and forced them into uncontrolled environments like parks, the bay run etc etc. I take the dog to the park now and there are easily ten times as many people as “pre-lockdown”, and absolutely no chance of any contact tracing. As mentioned above, the actual transmission at venues is limited. It’s happening in the home or between close friends/family (who will be exercising together anyway).

18 months in, we cannot continue to lock people up like prisoners. Had we introduced long term measures last year (QR Codes, capacity limits, appropriate spacing etc) we’d have been able to continue without a single lockdown and rely on contact tracing. Yes, some would become unwell, but it helps with long term immunity and can be managed by the huge funding thrown at our public health systems (imagine all the money that was spent on border controls being spent on health). We could even call it something like “flatten the curve” and ask people to comply with rules to “stop the spread”.

Instead, we’re a year and a half in with the countries major city and major economic driver not only locked down, but also locked out.

 

[justinbrett]

I think NSW and the Cth were trying to prove to the rest of Australia that the NSW was... ummm... 'gold standard', and that lockdowns and other restrictions were not needed. I wonder if NSW's reluctance to go in hard and early was because of this alliance?

I guess you need a certain level of political objectivity to assess that.

 

[trevella]

Covid zero may not happen, but zero hospitalisations and deaths from covid is a potential reality.

No, no it is not. Well, not with any degree of openness.

Australia's COVID-19 numbers (*) carry a giant asterisk in the eyes of the international community. That resentment will become increasingly difficult to withstand as the rest of the world comes to grips with a global pandemic.

(*) Achieved only by requiring citizens and residents to acquire COVID-19 elsewhere, because the nation's first-world healthcare system is incapable of handling anything more.

 

[bcworld]

So these new restrictions that came in overnight, prohibit people coming from outside Greater Sydney, to Greater Sydney for exercise...and this was allowed before....why???

 

[I love to travel]

The ABC blog just listed new exposure sites that go across Sydney not just certain sectors. A simple choice now for the NSW government do you want 700 cases a day like Victoria and then fully lockdown or do it now do you can finish it earlier. A big hug to NSW residents on AFF, many of us really feel for you.

 

[hydrabyss]

The "lockdown" is too soft.

All non-grocery retail must be click and collect. Hardware stores open for trade card holders only - otherwise click and collect or delivery. Cafes and restaurants to close everything except a single takeaway window. Florists again click and collect or phone and collect or delivery. No-one needs to go in to choose a floral arrangement for a funeral, this can be done over the phone.

The language is too soft.

GB on the telly again, asking people to "please" comply. The phrase is "you must" comply.
And stand there and tell the reporters ala Dan last year, every day, as necessary, that you can't walk along with a coffee cup in your hand and pretend to drink it so you don't have to wear a mask, that you can't car pool with anyone not living in your home. That you can't have anyone over who is not an intimate partner. How hard is it to implement and explain actual rules that will work? It's so frustrating watching this because it's like watching a slow-motion train wreck.

Most people are doing the right thing but it is the few that don't that keep the numbers going. The daily numbers are low for a high density population.

As an example I have neighbours in their 50's with a young child who blatantly have no regard for any rules that don't suit them. He works in Sydney and could very easily bring it back to our area. I think they have had on 4-5 occasions have people over since the lockdown started on the 26th june. They did the same last year with the previous lockdowns. No amount of store closures will stop them and my guess is they are one of many who by pure luck have not come into contact with someone with the virus yet.

As much as I would like to report the neighbour I know many around me are also getting the occasional visitor as well. Unfortunately we live in a society that does not learn from other people mistakes.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

No, no it is not. Well, not with any degree of openness.

Australia's COVID-19 numbers (*) carry a giant asterisk in the eyes of the international community. That resentment will become increasingly difficult to withstand as the rest of the world comes to grips with a global pandemic.

(*) Achieved only by requiring citizens and residents to acquire COVID-19 elsewhere, because the nation's first-world healthcare system is incapable of handling anything more.

Fair enough. 'Zero covid deaths' after the population is vaccinated is not a true reality, but we are seeing in other countries that those vaccinated are not requiring hospitalisation, or dying, at anywhere near the rates pre-vaccine. It's looking pretty promising.

 

[justinbrett]

ABC news are reporting police are checking people's groceries in Sydney to ensure they are only buying essential items.

All those who wanted draconian enforcement, your wish has been granted.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I’ve been hearing this for over 6 months now and yes it’s improving, but this is still not a long term strategy. We also don’t have the benefit of having some kind of natural immunity in Australia.

So the current argument is “the Sydney lockdown isn’t hard enough! Lock them up. Make them show papers!”. Despite this, we’re still having virtually no cases daily (50 out of Sydney’s 6 million strong population).

This “lockdown” has basically closed venues where people can congregate in a controlled manner (ie QR Codes, capacity limits, physical distancing) and forced them into uncontrolled environments like parks, the bay run etc etc. I take the dog to the park now and there are easily ten times as many people as “pre-lockdown”, and absolutely no chance of any contact tracing. As mentioned above, the actual transmission at venues is limited. It’s happening in the home or between close friends/family (who will be exercising together anyway).

18 months in, we cannot continue to lock people up like prisoners. Had we introduced long term measures last year (QR Codes, capacity limits, appropriate spacing etc) we’d have been able to continue without a single lockdown and rely on contact tracing. Yes, some would become unwell, but it helps with long term immunity and can be managed by the huge funding thrown at our public health systems (imagine all the money that was spent on border controls being spent on health). We could even call it something like “flatten the curve” and ask people to comply with rules to “stop the spread”.

Instead, we’re a year and a half in with the countries major city and major economic driver not only locked down, but also locked out.

We 'could have' if we'd had a crystal ball and could see the future. The reality is that we simply didn't know 18 months ago what we were facing, how long it would last, how many it would affect, or whether a vaccine would be possible. Who knew about QR codes to scan in during a pandemic 18 months ago? We could have built a massive quarantine facility 18 months ago and then found it useless because there was no possible vaccine and everyone would get covid anyway (so no need to quarantine).

People didn't want to close down or restrict their businesses 18 months ago. They don't want to now. I don't see this as a failure 18 months in. I see this as multiple timelines restarting every time we reach a new issue or milestone. Doesn't matter what happened 18 months ago, we're only 3-4 months in to a vaccine roll-out. So the current restrictions are only 3-4 months old and will last just a nother couple of months until the majority of the population has the chance to vaccinate.

 

[bcworld]

Fair enough. 'Zero covid deaths' after the population is vaccinated is not a true reality, but we are seeing in other countries that those vaccinated are not requiring hospitalisation, or dying, at anywhere near the rates pre-vaccine. It's looking pretty promising.

I think we'll watch what happens in the UK with great interest. I think there are a lot of people there that aren't onboard with the removal of all restrictions as the outcome is certainly not clear cut.

I read an article that said that even if we assume that 20% of the unvaccinated have already had covid, and therefore antibodies, that that still leaves 17 million people in the UK with no antibody response. Clearly the vast majority will be young with hopefully good outcomes...but still...

 

[jb747]

This “lockdown” has basically closed venues where people can congregate in a controlled manner (ie QR Codes, capacity limits, physical distancing) and forced them into uncontrolled environments like parks, the bay run etc etc. I take the dog to the park now and there are easily ten times as many people as “pre-lockdown”, and absolutely no chance of any contact tracing. As mentioned above, the actual transmission at venues is limited. It’s happening in the home or between close friends/family (who will be exercising together anyway).

Whilst allowing home visits, they'll never be able to stop it spreading. No QR codes there, as you've pointed out.

To a degree the behaviour of Sydney's residents was quite predictable. The longer this goes on, and the more lockdowns there are (and not just affecting you, but anywhere in the country), the more immune to them people become. This is especially the case with the pointless lockdowns that have been seen in places like Mildura. Sooner or later, enough people will start ignoring them, that they will have no effect at all. I'm not suggesting that that is smart, but simply what I see as human nature.

 

[N860CR]

We 'could have' if we'd had a crystal ball and could see the future. The reality is that we simply didn't know 18 months ago what we were facing, how long it would last, how many it would affect, or whether a vaccine would be possible. Who knew about QR codes to scan in during a pandemic 18 months ago? We could have built a massive quarantine facility 18 months ago and then found it useless because there was no possible vaccine and everyone would get covid anyway (so no need to quarantine).

People didn't want to close down or restrict their businesses 18 months ago. They don't want to now. I don't see this as a failure 18 months in. I see this as multiple timelines restarting every time we reach a new issue or milestone. Doesn't matter what happened 18 months ago, we're only 3-4 months in to a vaccine roll-out. So the current restrictions are only 3-4 months old and will last just a nother couple of months until the majority of the population has the chance to vaccinate.

I believe you said the same thing about the vaccine some six months ago. Dare I ask what we'll be saying in another six months?

We live in one of the highest taxed countries in the world. We don't need a "crystal ball", we need a public health department to function correctly. NSW Health actually ran a pandemic drill scenario not long before COVID was first detected. Possibly why things have been managed here so well. Surely contact tracing was a part of that. I agree that it was probably unreasonable to expect that, 18 months in, we'd genuinely be trying to achieve zero cases.

 

[I love to travel]

ABC news are reporting police are checking people's groceries in Sydney to ensure they are only buying essential items.

All those who wanted draconian enforcement, your wish has been granted.

UK police did the same thing.