Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[hydrabyss]

Lockdown Melbourne style, hard, fast n short.
Don't want this to get away a la Sydney.

Back to covid zero, yeah yeah!

Best to use Sydney as an example with the Delta strain as it does not appear to be as hit and miss with those that don't adhere to the rules.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I'm onboard with it. There's too much going on...a stadium with confirmed transmission, multiple schools.

Agree.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Certainly does feel like it - the other factor of Delta that doesn't get as much airtime is delayed positives - get a negative test, then a later positive.

Or is it because the tests are being done way too soon? We are asking people who attended a fitness centre yesterday morning to get tested immediately and isolate for 14 days. No problem with the latter obviously, but there is very very little chance that swab is positive - however one in 5-6 days, much higher chance.

Better contact tracing = quicker testing = likely fewer initial positives

 

[kpc]

I like this photo.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Certainly does feel like it - the other factor of Delta that doesn't get as much airtime is delayed positives - get a negative test, then a later positive.

Which is why in Vic they deploy the Tier 1 setting quite often ie Must get tested immediately and quarantine for 14 days from the exposure. including for settings like the Apartment Block.

ie The two technicians I have direct knowledge of at Kalkallo were never physically near the Removalists (they were working on equipment not in service) for the period that the Removalists were there but are in 14 days quarantine regardless.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Some numbers from NSW:

Date	Local acquired	Overseas acquired	Isolating during infectious period	Partially isolating during infectious period	ICU	Ventilator	Death
17-Jun​	2​	1​			0​
18-Jun​	2​	0​			0​
19-Jun​	2​	4​			0​
20-Jun​	2​	3​			0​
21-Jun​	2​	5​			1​
22-Jun​	5​	0​			1​
23-Jun​	10​	1​			1​
24-Jun​	18​	1​			0​
25-Jun​	11​	1​			1​
26-Jun​	29​	0​	12 (41%)		1​
27-Jun​	30​	2​	11 (37%)	3 (10%)	1​
28-Jun​	18​	3​	6 (33%)	3 (17%)	2​
29-Jun​	19​	1​	7 (37%)	2 (11%)	1​
30-Jun​	22​	6​	11 (50%)	5 (23%)	1​
1-Jul​	24​	4​	9 (38%)	3 (13%)	2​	1​
2-Jul​	31​	1​	11 (35%)	3 (10%)	3​	0​
3-Jul​	35​	5​	23 (66%)	3 (9%)	5​	0​
4-Jul​	16​	0​	13 (81%)	1 (6%)	5​	0​
5-Jul​	35​	2​	24 (69%)	4 (11%)	4​	0​
6-Jul​	18​	0​	11 (61%)	5 (28%)	6​	2​
7-Jul​	27​	1​	13 (48%)	7 (26%)	7​	2​
8-Jul​	38​	1​	17 (45%)	9 (24%)	11​	3​
9-Jul​	44​	1​	10 (23%)	8 (18%)	10​	4​
10-Jul​	50​	2​	13 (26%)	11 (22%)	16​	5​
11-Jul​	77​	5​	32 (42%)	9 (12%)	15​	5​	1​
12-Jul​	112​	4​	48 (43%)	12 (11%)	18​	4​
13-Jul​	89​	4​	55 (62%)	9 (10%)	21​	4​	1​
14-Jul​	97​	2​	60 (62%)	7 (7%)	20​	4​
15-Jul​	65​	2​	29 (45%)	7 (11%)	19​	5​
16-Jul​	???
17-Jul​
18-Jul​

Interesting that total daily numbers are higher than during the school holidays (which I believe was 27/6-11/7).

Percentage of those fully isolating is averaging about 50% with a high of 81% (on 4/7). In comparison if you use the last three days (which is the time since the updated restrictions plus increased police presence commenced) as a guide - only an improvement of about 10%.

NSW authorities still predominantly noting instances of non-compliance, so they still think the equation: household spread + mildly infectious while out legally (for the 4 reasons) + non-symptomatic while out legally still (edit: left out the important - not) equals 100% of the number of non-isolating while infectious.

Its interesting the NSW Premier is on about not isolating while infectious and for the moment not taking any note of partially isolating while infectious. So say NSW 70% fully isolating and 30% partially isolating while infectious for 5 consecutive days, would NSW end lockdown???

I believe NSW authorities did make a small/mild plea to employers to let as many work from home as possible.

 

[bcworld]

Further spread among HCWs

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415534941358596096

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Further spread among HCWs

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415534941358596096

Lucky NSW Health were apparently doing asymptomatic testing of their frontline staff as was the rumour I asked about yesterday.

 

[Pushka]

SA update. The presumed leak of Covid from quarantine of yesterday wasn't a leak as one was alpha and the other delta. People held over for additional days in hotel quarantine have been released. The positive of yesterday now deemed historical. The family of four from Sydney with the removalists have again tested negative. So we don't need to worry. Well, not so fast. We now need to worry about MCG with 150 people identified as exposed and around 4000 people from Victoria recently. Still a veiled threat of restrictions.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Or is it because the tests are being done way too soon? We are asking people who attended a fitness centre yesterday morning to get tested immediately and isolate for 14 days. No problem with the latter obviously, but there is very very little chance that swab is positive - however one in 5-6 days, much higher chance.

Better contact tracing = quicker testing = likely fewer initial positives

I think there have been Australian instances of Delta causing infection within 24 hours. The variable onset is very problematic.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Which is why in Vic they deploy the Tier 1 setting quite often ie Must get tested immediately and quarantine for 14 days from the exposure. including for settings like the Apartment Block.

ie The two technicians I have direct knowledge of at Kalkallo were never physically near the Removalists (they were working on equipment not in service) for the period that the Removalists were there but are in 14 days quarantine regardless.

With the possible delayed onset - might the Tier 1 setting change to say test immediately and at day 12 and isolate for 14 days???

 

[lovetravellingoz]

With the possible delayed onset - might the Tier 1 setting change to say test immediately and at day 12 and isolate for 14 days???

My understanding is that the interval testing, and number of tests, varies somewhat depending on how likely that they believe the contact may become positive. ie Household contacts can be given more frequent testing.

Plus also it depends on the risk to others. For example in the apartment building as there is some risk of transmission between apartments (as in HQ) if they only test just before release that could with a late case mean that all residents would have their quarantine clock reset by another 14 days. Whereas if people are in detached dwellings (houses) there is no risk of extending a neighbour's quarantine period.

I understand too that at present all positive case are removed from the apartment building, and that on the last positive case all the remaining residents quarantine clocks were reset to 14 days.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

My understanding is that the interval testing, and number of tests, varies somewhat depending on how likely that they believe the contact may become positive. ie Household contacts can be given more frequent testing.

Plus also it depends on the risk to others. For example in the apartment building as there is some risk of transmission between apartments (as in HQ) if they only test just before release that could with a late case mean that all residents would have their quarantine clock reset by another 14 days. Whereas if people are in detached dwellings (houses) there is no risk of extending a neighbour's quarantine period.

I understand too that at present all positive case are removed from the apartment building, and that on the last positive case all the remaining residents quarantine clocks were reset to 14 days.

Sigh, over 14+ days ...(quip) hope they work out the garbage removal process in an apartment building if the resident can't go past their front door.

 

[jakeseven7]

Lockdown Melbourne style, hard, fast n short.
Don't want this to get away a la Sydney.

Given everything, it’s probably better they don’t wait and see and end up with the mess that is the Sydney lockdown. Sigh, we’d just moved everything to Melbourne out of Sydney too! Sorry everyone I cursed you!

I wonder if VIC will now install a hard border with NSW given the multiple leaks from the Sydney outbreak.

 

[Lynda2475]

Some good news:

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just wondering whether we have a confirmed (delayed) case for the third removalist. I might have missed the news.

 

[dajop]

Lockdown Melbourne style, hard, fast n short.
Don't want this to get away a la Sydney.

Back to covid zero, yeah yeah!

Opposition leader in Vic already suggesting that it is too soon to lockdown.

 

[Pete98765432]

Opposition leader in Vic already suggesting that it is too soon to lockdown.

Typical from him. Pity he doesn’t follow the example of the NSW opposition leader.

 

[MooTime]

Opposition leader in Vic already suggesting that it is too soon to lockdown.

It wouldn't be an opposition leader with opposing the current government's every move.
The Federal Opposiotn are doing it hammer n tong. The the Federal Government couldn't tie a shoelace without them calling it a failure atm.

O'Brien really struggles for any ground down here.
Premiers are the almighty at this point in time.

 

[SydneySwan]

my friend works as a legal clerical assistant and she is being made to go in to work in the north of Sydney every day.

The northern area of Sydney has hardly any cases - most LGAs have none. I am not siding with the employer but just pointing out that the risk is much lower than if she was working in west or south-west Sydney.