Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

I doubt that the QLD or Victorian CHOs have as much power as you think.The WA and Tas CHOs are in the same boat.And in SA it is possible their CHO has no idea what power she might or might not have.

The Vic Settings I think (my speculation) were heavily influenced after Prof Cheng joined the team.

 

[dajop]

The Vic Settings I think (my speculation) were heavily influenced after Prof Cheng joined the team.

Yes, influence is the term, not power.

 

[RAM]

Whilst many travel out of the central coast into Sydney for work, doubtful many of those are heading to Bondi or South West - most would be working in City, North Sydney (or north along that rail line through Macquarie park, Chatswood or Hornsby). WRT people travelling into Central Coast for Work its more likely they would be coming down from the Hunter or up from Northern Suburbs than South West Sydney.

We have been in lockdown for 3 weeks and most are WFH, so odds of mass spread to Central Coast was never going to be high. Look at Melbourne, whilst there were cases that spread to Geelong the numbers never surged there.

There are 5 active cases in the central coast area (acquired outside of the central coast).

When you adjust the NSW Health Map to show 'total cases' for this outbreak then you see over 100 cases in the Central Coast. None currently active.

Also mid teens around Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and Forster

The press conferences are chalk and cheese - NSW seems chaotic, no key messaging, pleading with people, helicopters. Victoria has key facts and messages down clearly and Jeroen is across the detail. Brad Hazzard in NSW adds nothing to the conferences whatsoever.

Don't pick on Brad, he's the expert of turning his back and ending the media briefings after a tricky question. He tried it on today just 5 minutes or so into the questions (11.18am). One of the Ch 9 reporters then called out "What are you afraid of?". That stopped them.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

I wonder if Gladys, Brad or Kerry were good at maths back in the day?

Originally under NSW's "Clayton's lockdown" you could exercise anywhere in Greater Sydney. So that only permitted an asymptomatic person possibly spreading Delta somewhere in around 1,230,000 hectares.

Then it NSW 'slashed' it to the current within 10km of your home or just 31,416 hectares. Depending where that circle is placed it covers up to 1 million people who might be out exercising sans mask as well or shopping for essential Gucci handbags wearing appropriate essential designer masks.

The Victorian 5km circle covers 7,854 hectares by comparison.

 

[RAM]

Wait so this means there are about 170 yet to be linked / mystery cases in NSW right now?

Sure looks like that as well as over 450 historically.

So around 17% of current cases are sources unknown. Hard to accept this given the repeated accusations of 'families not following the rules'. One of the two cannot be accurate & I suspect it is the finger pointing one/

Now it is clear why "mystery cases" are never mentioned by the Three Stooges anymore.

The DNA of South Australians must make them much more resistant to Covid than the DNA of Victorians. Simples!

It must be the awful impact of no coal-fired power stations in SA vs Vic. Damn renewables!

 

[Princess Fiona]

When you adjust the NSW Health Map to show 'total cases' for this outbreak then you see over 100 cases in the Central Coast. None currently active.

Also mid teens around Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and Forster

This is completely false. There have been no cases in NSW during this current outbreak outside the lockdown zones.

 

[Lynda2475]

When you adjust the NSW Health Map to show 'total cases' for this outbreak then you see over 100 cases in the Central Coast. None currently active.

The "total cases" figure on each postcode, includes all cases going back to the start of the pandemic. Active cases are those within the last 28 days and the only ones that tell you what is going on with this pandemic. And active cases stay for whole 28 days (2 incubation periods) even if the person recovers before then.

There are actually 3 active cases on the crentral coast right now - 2 in Bateu Bay and 1 in Gorroken.

Map is here:

NSW COVID-19 cases, deaths and testing statistics

The latest weekly case numbers, testing figures totals and related COVID-19 statistics in NSW.

www.nsw.gov.au

 

[Lynda2475]

The meatballs obviously weren't good enough at Ikea Tempe

From the times obviously a worker (who would still be there packing orders for click and collect) even under Victoria style restrictions.

 

[moa999]

People all over Sydney yelling at their TVs for the government to go further. The current measures have stopped exponential growth but are not stopping growth

The settings between Vic and NSW are actually very close if you look at them wholistically.
Victoria has a 4-page list of authorised workers, NSW is more common sense and essential.
Both have debate about what is isn't allowed.

JBHiFi staff in Vic show up for work to pack goods for click and collect (so travel and interact with each other), and can hand goods to customers (staff-customer interaction)..
In NSW the stores are open, but with few customers who are asked to walk in and select what they want with no browsing

Core industries like Construction, Factories, Supermarkets, Chemists are all open in both states.
(Despite most of the non-family outbreaks and exposure sites occuring in those settings).

Strangely my local pet stores have shut (lots of complaints on local FB group) yet it is one of the categories in Victoria...


Personally think NSW will have to go harder, Victoria might get lucky...
Shutting down all retail (possibly including supermarkets for a short period) but definitely takeaway and coffee, and definitely most of construction and tradies for both big and small jobs other than emergency work. As well as outdoor exercise.

Curfews I think are counter productive unless you want the feeling of a police state.
All they do is force more people into whatever limited activites allowed over a shorter window, increasing transmission risk.

 

[drron]

The Vic Settings I think (my speculation) were heavily influenced after Prof Cheng joined the team.

In agree but not the CHO.
Both the Victorian and QLD Premiers are very strong personalities but also very experienced.

 

[moa999]

He also got the claws out yesterday a bit, when the journalist rabble were yelling and screaming trying to get their questions heard, basically saying calm down, this is Victoria, we stay until all your questions are answered (thinly veiled reference to NSW, Qld and federal governments).

I'll agree Dan is far more comfortable with the media than Gladys, but think both stick to pretty tight scripts.

And certainly having watched a few pressers the last few weeks, all the NSW pressers have gone a full hour, which also seems to be Dan's limit.

Dan on Thu was funny, making a big point about not criticising other states, yet clearly talking about NSW in his introduction, and specific comment about having a set of rules rather than not browsing.

Gladys oboviusly had her "No they didn't" gotcha when asked about Vic's 4 page list an hour earlier.

 

[moa999]

As a proportion of early cases, Bondi was many times a greater contributor to total cases at that point than Fairfield has ever been as of latest figures.

Well yes
The outbreak started in Bondi, but that was nearly a month ago.
And there was considerable media attention and police presence in Bondi.

Where are the majority of current infections being reported? And where are most of the exposure sites?

You've got to focus on the now...
If you get 20 cases in Mosman tomorrow, you can guarantee focus will shift.

Other than the currently locked down Bondi unit site there are very few cases in that area.

 

[MooTime]

CH7​

In an email to parents, Ballarat Clarendon College Principal David Shepherd confirmed a family member of a senior student had returned a positive result on Friday morning.​

So Ballarat will be one region not coming out from the 5 day lockdown early. Along most likely with Phillip Island.

We go Phillip island often as holiday house down there, like so many others.

Apart from weekends & school holidays, it's dead, barely any movement, if anyone caught it there I'd be surprised being a Wednesday..
It's 80% holiday homes.
Also they do have a covid testing station down there as of 2 weeks ago so I'd imagine the ~1000 permanent residents would test to be sure on this tier 1 exposure site.

 

[bcworld]

Wait so this means there are about 170 yet to be linked / mystery cases in NSW right now?

For comparison...that number peaked at 19 for Avalon and single figures for Crossroads.

 

[jase05]

The family themselves had to be tested and isolated as they came in from NSW and haven't had contact with anyone. They have data from the servo check ins but likely many of those were heading back to Victoria or NSW so out of SA control. The servo people have been isolated and have been tested but negative so far. There aren't really any rings to form?

240 Primary and secondary contacts in quarantine with regards to the removalists

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The settings between Vic and NSW are actually very close if you look at them wholistically.
Victoria has a 4-page list of authorised workers, NSW is more common sense and essential.
Both have debate about what is isn't allowed.

JBHiFi staff in Vic show up for work to pack goods for click and collect (so travel and interact with each other), and can hand goods to customers (staff-customer interaction)..
In NSW the stores are open, but with few customers who are asked to walk in and select what they want with no browsing

Core industries like Construction, Factories, Supermarkets, Chemists are all open in both states.
(Despite most of the non-family outbreaks and exposure sites occuring in those settings).

Strangely my local pet stores have shut (lots of complaints on local FB group) yet it is one of the categories in Victoria...


Personally think NSW will have to go harder, Victoria might get lucky...
Shutting down all retail (possibly including supermarkets for a short period) but definitely takeaway and coffee, and definitely most of construction and tradies for both big and small jobs other than emergency work. As well as outdoor exercise.

Curfews I think are counter productive unless you want the feeling of a police state.
All they do is force more people into whatever limited activites allowed over a shorter window, increasing transmission risk.

Vic lockdown is currently on medium settings.

When they had more case momentum to overcome (ie Sydney at present) they had harder restrictions with a lot more closed down including construction. Retail click and collect also then not allowed except for a narrow range.

ie I went to my dentist today. At times in earlier lockdowns this was not allowed. Ditto for elective surgeries.

Plus presently no curfew and various other settings are lighter. ie no real numbers at funerals at the strictest settings.

 

[hydrabyss]

The "total cases" figure on each postcode, includes all cases going back to the start of the pandemic. Active cases are those within the last 28 days and the only ones that tell you what is going on with this pandemic. And active cases stay for whole 28 days (2 incubation periods) even if the person recovers before then.

There are actually 3 active cases on the crentral coast right now - 2 in Bateu Bay and 1 in Gorroken.

Map is here:

NSW COVID-19 cases, deaths and testing statistics

The latest weekly case numbers, testing figures totals and related COVID-19 statistics in NSW.

www.nsw.gov.au

Did you only find the case at Gorokan from the map or have got more information on that one. It is not far from me and here is me thinking my neighbour would bring it to this area.

 

[Lynda2475]

Lets have a closer look at the 415 exposure sites in Greater Sydney for the last 14 days 3 -16 July.

Sites (78%) that would still be open under Victoria's rules:

• 120 Supermarkets, Butcher, Bakery or Fruit Shops (18 Close contact, 75 Casual contact, 27 Monitor for Syptoms)
• 91 Fast Food / Take Away Food/Coffee (16 Close, 66 Casual, 9 Monitor)
• 37 Chemists (7 Close contact, 24 Casual contact, 6 Monitor)
• 22 Petrol Stations (5 Close contact, 15 Casual contact, 2 monitor)
• 18 Medical Centres, Radiology, Dentist (16 Close contact, 2 Casual contact)
• 12 Conveinece stores 7Eleven etc (10 Casual contact, 2 monitor)
• 11 Shopping Centres which contain supermarkets (5 casual contact, 6 monitor) which you need to walk through to get to supermarket
• 9 Bottlos/Liquor (1 CLose, 5 Casual, 3 Monitor)
• 5 Post Offices (2 Close, 3 Casual)
• 2 Residential Apartment Complexes (casual contacts)
• 1 Park (Monitor)

Sites (3%) that would likely have been given permit:

• 5 banks (3 close, 2 Casual)
• 4 contruction sites (4 close)
• 3 Mechanic (1 close, 2 casual)
• 1 Drycleaners (casual)

Ones (16%) that would be click and collect (so still huge risk of staff transmission):

• 54 Other Retail like Kmart, Target, Furniture, Mobile, Real Estate (9 Close, 35 Casual, 10 Monitor)
• 8 Bunnings/Hardware (1 close, 6 Casual, 1 Monitor)
• 8 Trade only suppliers (not Bunnings) (3 Close, 4 Casual, 1 monitor)

The ones that may have been closed:

• 2 Offices / immigration Services (2 close)

Post automatically merged: Jul 16, 2021

Did you only find the case at Gorokan from the map or have got more information on that one.

Just from map (so it could be CHarmhaven or Canton Beach) but a friend who lives in Gorrokin has been compalining about people breaking restrictions all week.

 

[drron]

And the Fairfield LGA stepping up testing levels magnificently.
.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I am being pessimistic I know and I guess I hope I'm wrong, but I am feeling like we are just the latest South Asian domino to follow. That is, our illusion and fantasy of zero COVID is now well and truly past us. I am not sure if we can get to zero across the country again, I feel like this variant just moves too fast. If we end up with another 3 months or so of restrictions while we give everyone the opportunity to be vaccinated then so be it. But then, that's it. Like the UK, line in the sand time.

Maybe I'm smoking the good stuff but I just have this niggling feeling in the back of my mind that we aren't going to get back to what we had.

 

[bcworld]

The SMH reports that....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415980750403510273