Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[bcworld]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423772163094372356

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Oh dear. Seems this lockdown might be quite a bit longer than a week

 

[nickykim]

Lots of school students? Which will see higher number over the next few days as it spreads within households/families…so more than a week lockdown.

 

[MooTime]

Oh dear. Seems this lockdown might be quite a bit longer than a week

And stricter, I'm expecting some restrictions that we had previously that aren't on us yet.

 

[Pushka]

Thoughts with everyone in lockdown. Covid sucks.

Get vaccinated. With whatever you can lay your hands on. Although I reckon we must be at pretty much 100% compliance here if eligible.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And stricter, I'm expecting some restrictions that we had previously that aren't on us yet.

It is going to depend on who the cases are and what number of generations we were up to.

That 3 people were infectious for a week was never good.

This 24 hr of tests will have had a huge number of people tested from within the two rings.

ie Students and families, work mates and families. Relatives and families.

If the 27 is within those not too bad.

But if the 27 has cases beyond that then that will be a lot worse.

They are at least all linked and so that is a good sign. Linked means you can second ring all cases. Unlinked means possible unknown transmission chains that can grow unchecked.

 

[Pushka]

It is going to depend on who the cases are and what number of generations we were up to.

That 3 people were infectious for a week was never good.

This 24 hr of tests will have had a huge number of people tested from within the two rings.

ie Students and families, work mates and families. Relatives and families.

If the 27 is within those not too bad.

But if the 27 has cases beyond that then that will be a lot worse.

They are at least all linked and so that is a good sign. Linked means you can second ring all cases. Unlinked means possible unknown transmission chains that can grow unchecked.

However they haven't been isolating so

 

[Saab34]

Regardless they have not been isolating so they will want to cycle that 14 days now to see if anything else has happened.

Yeah add another 1-2 weeks on top of this now which sucks. I think it’s safe to say August is going to be in lockdown.

It’s a merry go round for the foreseeable future folks.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

However they haven't been isolating so

Yes of course as the index cases are all only recent. They would be extremely unlikely to be anything else at this stage. Progressively this will change.

It is why the immediate quarantining of two rings and more outside of any new cases is the only way to get in front of the rate of spread with Delta. 29 new cases means many more are already infected, and yes some of those will also have been out while infectious.

It is also why regional Victoria needed to be included in the lockdown at least at the start as there easily could have been contacts within two or three rings already out in the country. With Delta able to jump from person to person to person in as little as 30 hours we could be well be beyond several generations already.

It is also why with Delta that Tier1 restrictions are used a lot more now. ie Quarantine for 14 days regardless of test results instead of just isolate till a negative test result is obtained.

 

[bcworld]

The journey north continues...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423772394523697158

 

[Anna]

I hope the below is not a vision of Australia's covid future because I can't see us ever getting away from lockdowns if so --

UK vaccination figures on today's BBC news on SBS - first dose 89%, second dose 74%. (In the Guardian today the figures are a bit lower, although still much higher than Australia). But daily UK covid cases are 32,000 and daily UK covid deaths are over 90. Divide by 3 to account for the population difference between UK and Australia. Imagine if Australia had fully vaccinated figures over 70% but was still having daily cases of 10,000 and daily deaths of 30. We will all be locked up forever unless premiers and CHOs undergo a radical change of attitude to case numbers and deaths.

As far as I can tell the UK is in a spike right now, probably due to delta, and not long ago the UK case numbers were much lower. But it seems that despite good vax figures, the UK is currently experiencing way more cases and deaths than I can see being tolerated here

 

[justinbrett]

The journey north continues...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423772394523697158

It was reported locally yesterday.

Newcastle has a tonne of exposure sites including both major shopping centres (Kotara & Charlestown).

I think we're joining our Sydney cousins for the long haul. You can't unscramble an egg.

 

[I love to travel]

We are going to have to live with COVID for a long time, maybe always. We need to get our heads around that.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I hope the below is not a vision of Australia's covid future because I can't see us ever getting away from lockdowns if so --

UK vaccination figures on today's BBC news on SBS - first dose 89%, second dose 74%. (In the Guardian today the figures are a bit lower, although still much higher than Australia). But daily UK covid cases are 32,000 and daily UK covid deaths are over 90. Divide by 3 to account for the population difference between UK and Australia. Imagine if Australia had fully vaccinated figures over 70% but was still having daily cases of 10,000 and daily deaths of 30. We will all be locked up forever unless premiers and CHOs undergo a radical change of attitude to case numbers and deaths.

As far as I can tell the UK is in a spike right now, probably due to delta, and not long ago the UK case numbers were much lower. But it seems that despite good vax figures, the UK is currently experiencing way more cases and deaths than I can see being tolerated here

Remember though that vaccination does not prevent cases. It greatly reduces the number of severe illnesses and deaths amongst the vaccinated though.

However as we can see in the USA at present severe illness and death remains high amongst the unvaccinated even when there are many vaccinated people.

 

[MooTime]

I hope the below is not a vision of Australia's covid future because I can't see us ever getting away from lockdowns if so --

UK vaccination figures on today's BBC news on SBS - first dose 89%, second dose 74%. (In the Guardian today the figures are a bit lower, although still much higher than Australia). But daily UK covid cases are 32,000 and daily UK covid deaths are over 90. Divide by 3 to account for the population difference between UK and Australia. Imagine if Australia had fully vaccinated figures over 70% but was still having daily cases of 10,000 and daily deaths of 30. We will all be locked up forever unless premiers and CHOs undergo a radical change of attitude to case numbers and deaths.

As far as I can tell the UK is in a spike right now, probably due to delta, and not long ago the UK case numbers were much lower. But it seems that despite good vax figures, the UK is currently experiencing way more cases and deaths than I can see being tolerated here

Great post with figures, thanks.

It's something that the PM & all premiers have to be asked straight up.
Can we deal with & open without lockdowns with upto 10k daily cases & couple doz daily deaths.
This question must be asked with a no bullsheet answer.
Cos of it's a no, then that will cause problems, big problems everywhere here.

 

[jakeseven7]

Oh dear. Seems this lockdown might be quite a bit longer than a week

What was that you were saying about people’s behaviour being better in some areas… mmm hmmm. I think we can now all agree that people are the same - everywhere. Period.

 

[justinbrett]

What was that you were saying about people’s behaviour being better in some areas… mmm hmmm. I think we can now all agree that people are the same - everywhere. Period.

And I think everybody was a lot more compliant a few months into the pandemic compared to now.

People have been comparing apples and bananas.

 

[jakeseven7]

It was reported locally yesterday.

Newcastle has a tonne of exposure sites including both major shopping centres (Kotara & Charlestown).

I think we're joining our Sydney cousins for the long haul. You can't unscramble an egg.

It will start seeping over the border to QLD more regularly in the not too distant future, our borders are too meshed for it not to. Covid-19 is here to stay Australia, hope you are vaccinated.

 

[justinbrett]

It will start seeping over the border to QLD more regularly in the not too distant future, our borders are too meshed for it not to. Covid-19 is here to stay Australia, hope you are vaccinated.

I drove home from Brisbane to Newcastle yesterday.

The amount of cars on the M1 between Brisbane and the Gold Coast was astounding, you wouldn't have known it was a lockdown. Plenty of cars continuing into NNSW.

Even with the Newcastle lockdown there were plenty of cars between Coffs and Newcastle - but to be fair the stretch between Ballina and Coffs was quiet.

I didn't get checked by a single police car between Brisbane and Newcastle. I did see NSW police patrolling the highway northbound out of Raymond Terrace. I didn't see a single police car on the Queensland part of the road (apart from the border).

 

[sjk]

Oh dear. Seems this lockdown might be quite a bit longer than a week

Not much point ending it if Vic wants zero cases.