Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pom-DownUnder]

Poor scheduling today- NSW, VIC, QLD and NZ all having their press conferences at the same time.

Come on .... you cant expect pollies to work past 2pm

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Heard a sensible-sounding epidemiologist on ABC radio last night saying natural Delta R is between 5 and 6. So restrictions are flattening curve markedly. (Allowing us some time to get the vaccinations up without a public health disaster)

Yet to be seen whether Victoria can get their R consistently below 1 or if they will follow the NSW Delta experience

Yes, I heard the same on late night US TV - Delta is about 5.

 

[justinbrett]

Heard a sensible-sounding epidemiologist on ABC radio last night saying natural Delta R is between 5 and 6. So restrictions are flattening curve markedly. (Allowing us some time to get the vaccinations up without a public health disaster)

Yet to be seen whether Victoria can get their R consistently below 1 or if they will follow the NSW Delta experience

Yep, the R0 (pronounced R naught) for delta is around 5 (meaning it grows by a power of five - 5, 25, 125 etc)
The Reff (which accounts for controls) in NSW is around 1.3.

These aren't per day, they are per infection. I think they're averaging every 7 days (so every week the cases go up by 30%, instead of 500%).

The R0 is not especially helpful because they'd never let a virus wild without any controls. That was the problem with the original "flatten the curve" modelling, it didn't properly account for actions we would take.

 

[Lynda2475]

I dont know how Gladys just doesnt snap one day and say we're in this situation because the population *#)($ed it up the first two weeks of this outbreak. I know I spend more time yelling at the reporters on my screen than the pollies

Its not the restrictions, its the selfish numpties going to work with symptoms, delaying getting tested, having illegal gatherings in their homes, not wearing masks when out and breaching iso orders (both known positives and close contacts) that are spreading this.

Todays 3 deaths again all unvaccinated, the man in his 60s eligible since 1 May, the two men over 70 being eligible since late March. Cant help numpties that dont take timely action to protect themselves.

Time to start publishing the names of every individual who is found to be away from home when ordered to stay in home iso, let industry know who not to hire, there is no excuse.

 

[Lynda2475]

And any employer who is struggling for staff, hospitality? may not be able to do this.

I disagree. Employees are entitled to a safe workplace, unvaccinated staff make the workplace less safe for their colleagues and customers. Customers will vote with their feet, why give business to unsafe venues? Businesses that have mandatory jab rule for staff and exclude unvaccinated patrons will certainly get my patronage over others.

 

[drron]

However there are many hospitality venues who just can't get staff. Insist on vaccinated staff and they may as well hang up the going out of business sign.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I disagree. Employees are entitled to a safe workplace, unvaccinated staff make the workplace less safe for their colleagues and customers. Customers will vote with their feet, why give business to unsafe venues? Businesses that have mandatory jab rule for staff and exclude unvaccinated patrons will certainly get my patronage over others.

I can see that in the health field, outside of that, I really dont think employers have a right to say what they do or do not require their employees to have injected into them. Or to have to declare to your employer what you have / havent injected

 

[justinbrett]

I disagree. Employees are entitled to a safe workplace, unvaccinated staff make the workplace less safe for their colleagues and customers. Customers will vote with their feet, why give business to unsafe venues? Businesses that have mandatory jab rule for staff and exclude unvaccinated patrons will certainly get my patronage over others.

Sounds exactly like the smoking ban in pubs that was very popular

 

[Lynda2475]

However there are many hospitality venues who just can't get staff. Insist on vaccinated staff and they may as well hang up the going out of business sign.

They will likely go out of business due to these protracted lockdowns anyway if we dont see rates improve.

It was actually great to see Craig Laundy whose family own over 50 pubs in NSW publically state yesterday that they want the right to exclusively hire the vacinated and refuse entry to unvaccinated patrons, needs to be much more of it.

I think you underestimate the motivating power of paid work in getting some people to get vaccinated. Also need an extra 2% medicare levy for anyone not fully vacinated by the end of this calendar year.

 

[Pushka]

I think you underestimate the motivating of paid work in motivating people to get vaccinated.

And I think you underestimate how many businesses are struggling getting employees.

 

[Lynda2475]

Sounds exactly like the smoking ban in pubs that was very popular

Not sure if you are serious (I hope) or sarcastic (which is sad).

Smoke free offices and smoke free drinking/dining is simply awesome. Smokers can choose to destroy their own health in their own homes, they dont have the right to inflict their second hand carcinogenic smoke on the majority who do not wish to smoke. Less than 14% of the population smoke and that number is decreasing year on year.

And I think you underestimate how many businesses are struggling getting employees

There are definite shortages in farm work and highly technical roles, but I dont see any help wanted signs up in any of the local cafes or restaurants, lots of 16-21s who need part time work while studying, which is typically the bulk of casual hospitality crew.

Even if some businesses are experiencing shortages, why should that stop those employers who want to be responsible from being able to have vacination mandates ? Anyone who does not want to get jabbed, can choose to work elswhere (and if that gets harder and harder to do, then that might just chnage their mind about gettign jabbed).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

And I think you underestimate how many businesses are struggling getting employees.

Wouldn't it be a case of every business for themselves? Just give business the right to do what they want and let the chips fall where they may. In this case, it may mean let them discriminate (its not currently illegal I think.) The lobbying by some business for mandatory powers is just an exercise in legal liability limitation.

 

[justinbrett]

Not sure if you are serious (I hope) or sarcastic (which is sad).

Smoke free offices and smoke free drinking/dining is simply awesome. Smokers can choose to destroy their own health in their own homes, they dont have the right to inflict their second hand carcinogenic smoke on the majority who do not wish to smoke. Less than 14% of the population smoke and that number is decreasing year on year.



There are definite shortages in farm work and highly technical roles, but I dont see any help wanted signs up in any of the local cafes or restaurants, lots of 16-21s who need part time work while studying, which is typically the bulk of casual hospitality crew.

No I was being serious. People had the same arguments against pubs banning smoking but in the end it's what the people wanted and it happened.

 

[Lynda2475]

I can see that in the health field, outside of that, I really dont think employers have a right to say what they do or do not require their employees to have injected into them. Or to have to declare to your employer what you have / havent injected

I couldnt disagree more. I certainly dont want close physical contact with any numpty who is unvaccinated and wouldnt be inviting any unvaccinated tradie or cleaner into my home.

Haridressers, Beauticians, masseuses, Physios, Chiros all have to touch you, far more than just medical.

Im all for locking the unvaccinated out of theatres, indoor dining and flights.

People can refuse to get vaccinated or disclose that status but they can live with the consequences of that poor decision. Money talks.

 

[justinbrett]

Newcastle LGA is now red on the covid map. Interesting there's more cases in Greater Newcastle than in Sydney's Eastern Suburbs and Northern Beaches combined, despite a slightly smaller population.

 

[Pushka]

Even if some businesses are experiencing shortages, why should that stop those employers who want to be responsible from being able to have vacination mandates

It won’t stop those businesses insisting on vaccination at all. But to do it through a mandatory ‘all businesses must only employ vaccinated people ‘ will likely destroy some simply because of staff shortage and not lack of will to employ people.

Maybe pop up to Cairns where there are immense staff shortages usually filled by travellers and backpackers. And check drron’s trip report.

 

[Lynda2475]

Yes but that isn’t the issue in this case. Knowing their current issue esp in hospitality in getting staff they may try but likelihood of making it mandatory will mean they simply may not be able to operate.

That is just speculation. Laundies wouldnt be calling for it if they thought it was going to harm their busisess, they know how to run very successful pubs and restaurants and never seem to be short of staff.

A business who thinks it will harm them doenst need to intoduce a vaccine mandate, but that decision will also cost them other business if their competitors are able to advertise that they are truly covid safe with fully vacicnated staff and customers.

But to do it through a mandatory ‘all businesses must only employ vaccinated people ‘ will likely destroy some simply because of staff shortage and not lack of will to employ people.

Where did I say that? I said the government needs to legislate to better protect business owners who want to introduce a vaccination policy, that positive discrimination should be lawful.

I also suggetsed that the government could lead by example and insist its employees are vaccinated.

The inablity to find staff in FNQ is because of closed borders both international and domestic, more locals might be willing to take jobs there if they knew that they could still visit interstate family and not be isolated. And the solution to opening up is vacicnation, if states were sensible and introduced vaccine privilege now there would be a lot more travel happening and those businesses would be able to afford to employ locals or attract interstate candidates.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Heard a sensible-sounding epidemiologist on ABC radio last night saying natural Delta R is between 5 and 6. So restrictions are flattening curve markedly. (Allowing us some time to get the vaccinations up without a public health disaster)

Yet to be seen whether Victoria can get their R consistently below 1 or if they will follow the NSW Delta experience

Yes NSW Reff has always been above 1 in NSW in this outbreak, with a lot the damage done back in July when growth was surging. Stricter restrictions has reduced it, but has remained above one. Being above one just has meant that the cases just keeping steadily growing and growing.




Reff shows what has happened though. It points to the future, but it does not have to be the future.

Reff is affected by the virus strain, chance, restrictions and other controls, vaccinations, and other factors, but is also very much what individuals choose to do.

The more people mix, the higher the Reff will be. Some people follow the rules, some follow the spirit of the rules and other do both. Some do neither.


If The Reff stays above one you need to go harder and/or get better engagement, or if not you wear the adverse medical outcomes.

Whether say a curfew is, or is not, part of your measures is not really relevant. If you are above one then you need if you want to reduce hospitalisations at present increase the interventions. What those interventions are exactly is up to he jurisdiction and there are many different interventions that can be deployed and or/can be deployed at different levels. It is largely impossible to know the precise value of any one measure, but if what you are doing is adding up to an ongoing Reff greater than 1, and if you want it under 1 you need to make changes. NSW has been progressively rolling out more measures but is not getting under 1.

The alterative is to accept the increase in hospitalisations and adverse health outcomes that will occur until vaccinations eventually slow things down, and then later reach an ongoing reduced plateau of adverse outcomes.



On a more positive note I would be confident that we are most likely going to get the % vaccinated up to a reasonable level. But how much pain is in the interim is unknown.

 

[N860CR]

Its not the restrictions, its the selfish numpties going to work with symptoms, delaying getting tested, having illegal gatherings in their homes, not wearing masks when out and breaching iso orders (both known positives and close contacts) that are spreading this.

Todays 3 deaths again all unvaccinated, the man in his 60s eligible since 1 May, the two men over 70 being eligible since late March. Cant help numpties that dont take timely action to protect themselves.

To be honest, there’s not a great deal of evidence to show that people breaking restrictions are the reason the virus is spreading. There have been a few highly publicized “breaches” that help to push the narrative, but overall the virus is spreading amongst people doing their jobs and going home; as every other virus does.

Very much agree with your second point. This outbreak continues to prove that the virus is rarely causes fatalities outside of the vulnerable age groups who have chosen not to protect themselves.

 

[Pushka]

That is just speculation. Laundies wouldnt be calling for it if they thought it was going to harm their busisess, they know how to run sucesful pubs and restaurants and never seem to be short of staff.

A business who thinks it will harm them doenst need to intoduce a vaccine mandate, but that decision will also cost them other business if their competitors are able to advertise taht they are truly covid safe with fully vacicnated staff and customers.

As is yours but mine is based on current observations. No more to say really. I’m done.

Dont know who Laundies is but if he is a big hotel chain owner or rep then he doesn’t represent the family/small business experience.