Yes NSW Reff has always been above 1 in NSW in this outbreak, with a lot the damage done back in July when growth was surging. Stricter restrictions has reduced it, but has remained above one. Being above one just has meant that the cases just keeping steadily growing and growing.
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Reff shows what has happened though. It points to the future, but it does not have to be the future.
Reff is affected by the virus strain, chance, restrictions and other controls, vaccinations, and other factors, but is also very much what individuals choose to do.
The more people mix, the higher the Reff will be. Some people follow the rules, some follow the spirit of the rules and other do both. Some do neither.
If The Reff stays above one you need to go harder and/or get better engagement, or if not you wear the adverse medical outcomes.
Whether say a curfew is, or is not, part of your measures is not really relevant. If you are above one then you need if you want to reduce hospitalisations at present increase the interventions. What those interventions are exactly is up to he jurisdiction and there are many different interventions that can be deployed and or/can be deployed at different levels.
It is largely impossible to know the precise value of any one measure, but if what you are doing is adding up to an ongoing Reff greater than 1, and if you want it under 1 you need to make changes. NSW has been progressively rolling out more measures but is not getting under 1.
The alterative is to accept the increase in hospitalisations and adverse health outcomes that will occur until vaccinations eventually slow things down, and then later reach an ongoing reduced plateau of adverse outcomes.
On a more positive note I would be confident that we are most likely going to get the % vaccinated up to a reasonable level. But how much pain is in the interim is unknown.
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