Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[justinbrett]

Yes NSW Reff has always been above 1 in NSW in this outbreak, with a lot the damage done back in July when growth was surging. Stricter restrictions has reduced it, but has remained above one. Being above one just has meant that the cases just keeping steadily growing and growing.

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Reff shows what has happened though. It points to the future, but it does not have to be the future.

Reff is affected by the virus strain, chance, restrictions and other controls, vaccinations, and other factors, but is also very much what individuals choose to do.

The more people mix, the higher the Reff will be. Some people follow the rules, some follow the spirit of the rules and other do both. Some do neither.


If The Reff stays above one you need to go harder and/or get better engagement, or if not you wear the adverse medical outcomes.

Whether say a curfew is, or is not, part of your measures is not really relevant. If you are above one then you need if you want to reduce hospitalisations at present increase the interventions. What those interventions are exactly is up to he jurisdiction and there are many different interventions that can be deployed and or/can be deployed at different levels. It is largely impossible to know the precise value of any one measure, but if what you are doing is adding up to an ongoing Reff greater than 1, and if you want it under 1 you need to make changes. NSW has been progressively rolling out more measures but is not getting under 1.

The alterative is to accept the increase in hospitalisations and adverse health outcomes that will occur until vaccinations eventually slow things down, and then later reach an ongoing reduced plateau of adverse outcomes.



On a more positive note I would be confident that we are most likely going to get the % vaccinated up to a reasonable level. But how much pain is in the interim is unknown.

I think closing KFCs and Maccas would be more sensible than a curfew.

There is no logical reason a curfew would reduce transmission, both NSW and VIC police associations have said this.

I'm actually surprised fast food is still open in Melbourne, considering you're being told not to do daily shops. Fast food is only for a single meal so how does that meet the risk/benefit threshold? Sure, low risk for customers in the drive through but there's the staff going to work, catching public transport, food delivery, cleaners etc all so you can have a coffee or a burger. A higher risk of customers going inside to pick up.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I think closing KFCs and Maccas would be more sensible than a curfew.

There is no logical reason a curfew would reduce transmission, both NSW and VIC police associations have said this.

I'm actually surprised fast food is still open in Melbourne, considering you're being told not to do daily shops. Fast food is only for a single meal so how does that meet the risk/benefit threshold? Sure, low risk for customers in the drive through but there's the staff going to work, catching public transport, food delivery, cleaners etc all so you can have a coffee or a burger. A higher risk of customers going inside to pick up.

Just wondering if there would be any thoughts at all in NSW Govt of doing NZ Level 4 restrictions?
At least in the big areas SW/W Sydney with hundreds of cases.

77 in ICU is getting up there. I hope we have nearly reached the peak of that but fear not.

 

[Lynda2475]

To be honest, there’s not a great deal of evidence to show that people breaking restrictions are the reason the virus is spreading. There have been a few highly publicized “breaches” that help to push the narrative, but overall the virus is spreading amongst people doing their jobs and going home; as every other virus does.

There was actually a lot of household mixing causing spread, referenced very frequently when they started defining LGAs of concern and got a mention by Dr Chant yet again in today's presser.

Workplaces are a key feature which is why we have surveillance testing across industries (not just health) and a vaccination policy to work in construction, but household mixing in the LGAs of concern has continued to be significant (look at the number of crime stoppers reports and infringements issued).

 

[jakeseven7]

There are definite shortages in farm work and highly technical roles, but I dont see any help wanted signs up in any of the local cafes or restaurants, lots of 16-21s who need part time work while studying, which is typically the bulk of casual hospitality crew.

There is a MASSIVE and well publicised shortage of hospitality workers. Obviously not right now in locked down cities like Sydney. This is primarily due to no migration or international students around. That is simply a fact.

But I do agree with you all employers should have ability to mandate vaccines in businesses to help stop the virus spread in their business and the community.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think closing KFCs and Maccas would be more sensible than a curfew.

There is no logical reason a curfew would reduce transmission, both NSW and VIC police associations have said this.

I'm actually surprised fast food is still open in Melbourne, considering you're being told not to do daily shops. Fast food is only for a single meal so how does that meet the risk/benefit threshold? Sure, low risk for customers in the drive through but there's the staff going to work, catching public transport, food delivery, cleaners etc all so you can have a coffee or a burger. A higher risk of customers going inside to pick up.

You now think about a single Maccas or KFC meal, some think of their once a day coffee.

Post automatically merged: Aug 18, 2021

Just wondering if there would be any thoughts at all in NSW Govt of doing NZ Level 4 restrictions?
At least in the big areas SW/W Sydney with hundreds of cases.

77 in ICU is getting up there. I hope we have nearly reached the peak of that but fear not.

Its going to be hard for people that don't cook - I feel there is quite a sizeable proportion (say 5% of households). I would guess those types of households buy a day or two worth of takeaway - but may be not just Maccas/KFC

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

There is a MASSIVE and well publicised shortage of hospitality workers. Obviously not right now in locked down cities like Sydney. This is primarily due to no migration or international students around. That is simply a fact.

But I do agree with you all employers should have ability to mandate vaccines in businesses to help stop the virus spread in their business and the community.

Well are you saying business don't have that right currently? SPC has and Qantas just did so I don't think that's an issue anymore.

 

[justinbrett]

Just wondering if there would be any thoughts at all in NSW Govt of doing NZ Level 4 restrictions?
At least in the big areas SW/W Sydney with hundreds of cases.

77 in ICU is getting up there. I hope we have nearly reached the peak of that but fear not.

They've got to do something. If they don't change the settings it's just going to keep going up, and once the contact tracing and testing fail there's no stopping it.

You now think about a single Maccas or KFC meal, some think of their once a day coffee.

Post automatically merged: Aug 18, 2021

Its going to be hard for people that don't cook - I feel there is quite a sizeable proportion (say 5% of households).

Sacrifices must be made. I'm on the record for not being a fan of lockdowns, but in this context I don't see any alternative. They've just got to hang in for a couple of months to finish the vaccinations. People were on rations during the world wars, I'm sure we'll survive.

The trouble is, if Sydney is out of control, no ring of steel will keep it in Sydney and it will go throughout the state, and if it's throughout NSW it will get into other states.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

There is no logical reason a curfew would reduce transmission, both NSW and VIC police associations have said this.

The police aren't psychologists or health experts. I accept there's not even agreement among health experts, but even if one of them is right - and the psychological or physical barriers by having a curfew work - then that's a step in the right direction.

The Vic Premier said it's hardly an imposition - you just can't go shopping or do your exercise at midnight.

 

[N860CR]

Sacrifices must be made. I'm on the record for not being a fan of lockdowns, but in this context I don't see any alternative. They've just got to hang in for a couple of months to finish the vaccinations. People were on rations during the world wars, I'm sure we'll survive.

But what is a “stronger” lockdown going to do? People already can’t see their family, cant see their friends, can’t go to a restaurant, can’t go to the shops etc etc. Is stopping someone going through the Maccas drive through actually going to achieve anything? Highly doubt it.

No doubt some people were on rations during a world war. This isn’t a world war, it’s a mild virus.

Australia hid under the blanket last year. The Sydney outbreak remains incredibly small on a global basis. There is zero point in adding more restrictions to aim for this stupid “covid zero” only to unwind them in a few weeks when we decide “ok now we live with it”.

 

[justinbrett]

The police aren't psychologists or health experts. I accept there's not even agreement among health experts, but even if one of them is right - and the psychological or physical barriers by having a curfew work - then that's a step in the right direction.

The Vic Premier said it's hardly an imposition - you just can't go shopping or do your exercise at midnight.

You don't have to be a health expert to know that covid doesn't spread any more at night than it does during the day. Just think about it.

It's all for optics.

 

[jakeseven7]

They've got to do something. If they don't change the settings it's just going to keep going up, and once the contact tracing and testing fail there's no stopping it.

The contact tracing has pretty much failed already as you would expect with so many cases, no system in the world could cope with that. The number of mystery cases is piling up. I wonder when they start scaling it back…. Whether it’s even worth it?

 

[bcworld]

They've got to do something. If they don't change the settings it's just going to keep going up, and once the contact tracing and testing fail there's no stopping it.

The contact tracing has very clearly already failed.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

They've got to do something. If they don't change the settings it's just going to keep going up, and once the contact tracing and testing fail there's no stopping it.



Sacrifices must be made. I'm on the record for not being a fan of lockdowns, but in this context I don't see any alternative. They've just got to hang in for a couple of months to finish the vaccinations. People were on rations during the world wars, I'm sure we'll survive.

The trouble is, if Sydney is out of control, no ring of steel will keep it in Sydney and it will go throughout the state, and if it's throughout NSW it will get into other states.

Yep - 10-11 more weeks until NSW is 70% double dosed is far too long. The 600 will be about 10,000 per day if the reproductive rate is not slowed.

I think NSW have to force critical industries to actually stop using workers from the LGAs of concern and to see specific exemption. Go to 25% capacity for critical industries.

That might also help the asymptomatic testing situation which is only Canterbury-Bankstown LGA authorised workers at the moment (plus health and aged care in Fairfield and one other area). Blacktown and I think coughberland need asymptomatic testing I feel

 

[Lynda2475]

There is no logical reason a curfew would reduce transmission, both NSW and VIC police associations have said this.

Agree as do experts all over the world.

However, I disagree with closing fast food, I dont frequent KFC or Maccas but many drivers and shiftworkers rely on these places to safely get a hot meal during their work day or going to and from.

The local non-chain cafes, thai, chinese, vietnamese bakeries, pizza stores, fish & Chips etc have been a community lifeline, providing healthy meals to many (variety one doesnt get cookign for themselves) and the ablity to see a real person face to face for those who live alone even if only for 30 secs.

You could close to walk-ins and only allow online order and pick up but need to allow this on foot as not everyone has a car.

Closing all the businesses providing take-out food and home delivery would kill even more businesses and increase the economic burden further.

Picking up takeaway is quicker and usually lower contact than a supermarket shop. The additional benefit of closing them would be relatively low.

I believe right now it would be more beneficial to go harder on schools and child care, too many parents are sending their kids into care because they dont want them annoying them whilst wfh. If you are working inside your home, you can keep your kids at home, we know its less than ideal but only young childrenof essential workers working outside the home should be physically at school

My sister is a teacher and schools arent empowered to turn kids away even though she knows on kid who is there everyday has a stay at home Mum, its simply **** taking. A friend of hers teaches at a small school inner city school (approx 150 students) and approx 95 have been coming in each day, no way all those kids have both parents who are essential workers outside the home, definitely not based on the demographics of the area (mostly very highly paid professionals).

 

[milehighclub]

let's hope it doesn't bring some knobs out that say you can't make me get vaccinated.

Of course it will, the messages have already started. By the numbers, there are at least over 500 staff that don't want, or can't have (of which I suspect are mostly don't want).

Airlines are also in a unique position in that they will have to respond to overseas requirements to be vaccinated, so even if they didn't make it mandatory here, the crew will most likely required to be to fly to certain places and the airlines are not going to have rosters for vaccinated and unvaccinated crew.

 

[jakeseven7]

The trouble is, if Sydney is out of control, no ring of steel will keep it in Sydney and it will go throughout the state, and if it's throughout NSW it will get into other states.

Sydney is out of control. It has already got into other states. So yes it’s going to keep happening again and again. It’s in all of our best interests just to vaccinate like our lives depend on it (more like our QUALITY of life depends on it )

 

[Lynda2475]

Well are you saying business don't have that right currently? SPC has and Qantas just did so I don't think that's an issue anymore.

The legal ground is shakey with out health orders (aged care and hospitals have greater legal protections). The onus is on the business to prove necessity, but govenrment could legilsate to provide greater protections and hopefully will be pressured to do so.

 

[justinbrett]

Agree as do experts all over the world.

However, I disagree with closing fast food, I dont frequent KFC or Maccas but many drivers and shiftworkers rely on these places to safely get a hot meal during their work day or going to and from.

The local non-chain cafes, thai, chinese, vietnamese bakeries, pizza stores, fish & Chips etc have been a community lifeline, providing healthy meals to many (variety one doesnt get cookign for themselves) and the ablity to see a real person face to face for those who live alone even if only for 30 secs.

You could close to walk-ins and only allow online order and pick up but need to allow this on foot as not everyone has a car.

Closing all the businesses providing take-out food and home delivery would kill even more businesses and increase the economic burden further.

Picking up takeaway is quicker and usually lower contact than a supermarket shop. The additional benefit of closing them would be relatively low.

But what is a “stronger” lockdown going to do? People already can’t see their family, cant see their friends, can’t go to a restaurant, can’t go to the shops etc etc. Is stopping someone going through the Maccas drive through actually going to achieve anything? Highly doubt it.

It's more about reducing the people going to work. There's been quite a few cases in fast food workplaces. The 15yo who died caught covid at his workplace (KFC) - although he didn't die OF covid.

I think the chains would be higher risk as these have 20+ people in a small space, the mom & pop takeaway shops are probably better with just 2-3 people.

At very least, require 100% vaccination for these workplaces.

 

[N860CR]

It's more about reducing the people going to work. There's been quite a few cases in fast food workplaces. The 15yo who died caught covid at his workplace (KFC) - although he didn't die OF covid.

I think the chains would be higher risk as these have 20+ people in a small space, the mom & pop takeaway shops are probably better with just 2-3 people.

Then how do people make money to buy… well I guess not KFC but some kind of other food?

We’ve become so obsessed with “numbers” and covid zero that we’ve lost perspective. Of each “case” each day, remember the majority are actually just “positive test results” who don’t actually get sick. Yes, some will, and we can deal with them.

NSW has well and truly flattened the curve. Contrary to popular belief, this “outbreak” is very much under control using these extreme containment measures. The last thing we need is even more draconian restrictions that will simply lead to even more public distrust.

 

[justinbrett]

Then how do people make money to buy… well I guess not KFC but some kind of other food?

We’ve become so obsessed with “numbers” and covid zero that we’ve lost perspective. Of each “case” each day, remember the majority are actually just “positive test results” who don’t actually get sick. Yes, some will, and we can deal with them.

NSW has well and truly flattened the curve. Contrary to popular belief, this “outbreak” is very much under control using these extreme containment measures. The last thing we need is even more draconian restrictions that will simply lead to even more public distrust.

I'm of the opinion you either lockdown to get Reff below 1 or otherwise open up and protect the vulnerable.

It's the worst of both worlds at the moment. I don't see the point in this much stress on the community if we're going to be in the thousands of daily cases anyway.