Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[justinbrett]

Well by that definition a reproductive rate of 4 is also flattening the curve.....

It would be. It's flattening the curve, but it's still a curve. It's not making into a flat line. And there's degrees as to how much you flatten it.

The argument is that 10,000 cases a day is lower than what it would be (100,000s).

 

[burmans]

Well by that definition a reproductive rate of 4 is also flattening the curve.....

I thought flatten the curve was about minimising the stress on hospitals etc....if NSW keeps a reproductive rate of 1.3 for 11 weeks the 600+ is 10,000 per day. In most people's books that would flatten our hospitals, not the curve.

Like everything its a spectrum and there are degrees of flattening the curve. 1.3 is better than 4 and both are better than 5 so both are flattening but one is flattening more. 1 or less would be even better.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It would be. It's flattening the curve, but it's still a curve. It's not making into a flat line. And there's degrees as to how much you flatten it.

The argument is that 10,000 cases a day is lower than what it would be (100,000s).

Like everything its a spectrum and there are degrees of flattening the curve. 1.3 is better than 4 and both are better than 5 so both are flattening but one is flattening more. 1 or less would be even better.

OK so 10,000 per day is OK......thanks. NSW hospitals won't be flattened.

 

[Lynda2475]

Again, virtually all current deaths are in people who were eligible to be vaccinated but chose not to be. I’m unsure as to why there is this double standard. Basically everyone agrees that the end goal should be 70/80% of people offered the vaccine. We have people dying now who were offered but did not accept it. It’s a concern that we are already not prepared to accept that.

Noting that of the younger deaths:

• the 15yo died from pneumococcal meningitis (with covid),
• the 40 something woman was in palliative care meaning near end of life form something else (had acces t Pfizer from June),
• the 40 something male also has serious underlying conditions (also had access ot Pfizer since June).
• That leaves one man in his 30s who it was rumoured may have had undiagnsed heart conditiuon, who was daly too young to be vacinated (but if his condition had been diagnosed likley would have qualified under 1B).

 

[justinbrett]

OK so 10,000 per day is OK......thanks.

 

[bcworld]

James is from Daily Tele. Andrew Connell is from Sky.

Don't think anyone should be shedding tears that News Corp is holding right wing governments to account, it proves the Krudd crowd wrong that they only go after the left.

Without going too far off track...I don't think Gladys is really Sky News' kind of Liberal. In much the same way that Malcolm Turnbull wasn't / isn't (they're still obsessed with him). I know no one will believe me, but I used to like Gladys for exactly this reason - I could even point to forum posts with me saying 'I like Gladys' last year. I don't any more...what I've seen in the last 2 months has been appalling, increasingly so.

Gladys was useful to Sky News when she and NSW could be used as ammo in a propaganda war against other states. Now that that narrative has evaporated she is fair game at Newscorp - no doubt they have their preferred replacement(s) in mind.

 

[N860CR]

OK so 10,000 per day is OK......thanks. NSW hospitals won't be flattened.

Even based on the most pessimistic calculations, we’re a number of months from that level. By then, NSW will likely have hit both vaccination targets.

Stop the fear mongering. This isn’t seven news.

 

[justinbrett]

Without going too far off track...I don't think Gladys is really Sky News' kind of Liberal. In much the same way that Malcolm Turnbull wasn't / isn't (they're still obsessed with him). I know no one will believe me, but I used to like Gladys for exactly this reason - I could even point to forum posts with me saying 'I like Gladys' last year. I don't any more...what I've seen in the last 2 months has been appalling, increasingly so.

Gladys was useful to Sky News when she and NSW could be used as ammo in a propaganda war against other states. Now that that narrative has evaporated she is fair game at Newscorp - no doubt they have their preferred replacement(s) in mind.

Sky News is actually very centrist - news that is. At 1700 the commentary starts, that's another issue. But from 0600-1700 it's quite balanced.

I would not put MT and Gladys in the same category, no way.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Without going too far off track...I don't think Gladys is really Sky News' kind of Liberal. In much the same way that Malcolm Turnbull wasn't / isn't (they're still obsessed with him). I know no one will believe me, but I used to like Gladys for exactly this reason - I could even point to forum posts with me saying 'I like Gladys' last year. I don't any more...what I've seen in the last 2 months has been appalling, increasingly so.

Gladys was useful to Sky News when she and NSW could be used as ammo in a propaganda war against other states. Now that that narrative has evaporated she is fair game at Newscorp - no doubt they have their preferred replacement(s) in mind.

If you think you don't like the current NSW Premier, there are a lot more that are more "pro-let it rip" - let it flatten to 10,000 per day in the wings. I don'[t know whether to think the current NSW Premier is captive or not.

 

[Lynda2475]

Absolute case numbers are less important than the number of hospitlisations and deaths in those ineligible for vacination. The eligible who didnt get vaxxed despite months to do so, and then ended up in hospital have suffered the consequences of their tardiness/complacency/anti-vax choice.

 

[bcworld]

If you think you don't like the current NSW Premier, there are a lot more that are more "pro-let it rip" - let it flatten to 10,000 per day in the wings. I don'[t know whether to think the current NSW Premier is captive or not.

Yeah I'm well aware of the treasurer waiting in the wings. I'm sure the premier is too.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I couldnt disagree more. I certainly dont want close physical contact with any numpty who is unvaccinated and wouldnt be inviting any unvaccinated tradie or cleaner into my home.

Haridressers, Beauticians, masseuses, Physios, Chiros all have to touch you, far more than just medical.

Im all for locking the unvaccinated out of theatres, indoor dining and flights.

People can refuse to get vaccinated or disclose that status but they can live with the consequences of that poor decision. Money talks.

Always going to be disagreements when comes to peoples rights / privacies

I am double jabbed and hope that people do take it up for their good and their own families but I think its too scary a door to open to allow widespread mandating, how do you enforce it?

Employers now get access to employees medical records?

To have a night out in your world if i grab a flight somewhere, get a drink, have a meal and go to the theatre i now have to display my medical history / proof "show me ze papers" 4 times in an evening?

Plenty of contagious things out there, what else do we want to be able to preclude people from entering based on? herpes? HIV?

Its not like having the vaccine means you cannot catch / spread, so why does someone who CAN catch CAN spread but has the app on their phone get rights, jobs, freedoms over someone else because they can catch and spread covid but doesnt have the app on their phone?

 

[jakeseven7]

I think also we've since donated a lot of the ventilators to Indonesia and PNG

Indonesia wants their vaccines back that’s for sure. Probably wants to hang onto the ventilators too!

 

[jb747]

The argument is that 10,000 cases a day is lower than what it would be (100,000s).

And I guess an argument for the antis would be that at 100k per day, it would have been over by last Christmas. Might have been a few other issues, but ....

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yes

Yeah I'm well aware of the treasurer waiting in the wings. I'm sure the premier is too.

Yes, a lot of hubris/hype all around.

Using today as an illustrative snapshot 600+ cases, 450+ hospitalised, 75+ ICU, 25 ventilators.

Maybe 10,000 isn't important in a vaccinated population (yet to be proven), but possibly 7500 hospitalised, 1250 ICU and 400+ ventilators.

People essentially victim blaming those that get covid and then get hospitalised - don't really see the real picture of those less affluent - unable to get appointments, ineligible even three weeks ago. So more hubris/hype.

Hope no one already vaccinated is in the 1% fully vaccinated (ie hospitalised) stat in the forthcoming weeks.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

And I guess an argument for the antis would be that at 100k per day, it would have been over by last Christmas. Might have been a few other issues, but ....

I think human history has shown not over, but certainly a very different world.

As Pushka points out, things are quite binary. My point is once something becomes the accepted middle ground a new binary emerges.

 

[justinbrett]

Maybe 10,000 isn't important in a vaccinated population (yet to be proven), but possibly 7500 hospitalised, 1250 ICU and 400+ ventilators.

We can look at the UK which has around 80% vaccinated (close to double jabbed, 77%); they are getting between 30-50K daily cases and around 60-80 daily deaths.

They are about 10x the population of NSW, so that would be 3-5K daily cases and 6-8 deaths. For perspective, Australia has around 40 deaths due heart disease every day, so it's sad but not unreasonable we would accept this.

It should come down further for them with child vaccinations and the next generation of vaccines.

 

[dajop]

Newcastle LGA is now red on the covid map. Interesting there's more cases in Greater Newcastle than in Sydney's Eastern Suburbs and Northern Beaches combined, despite a slightly smaller population.

Demographics perhaps? The world over, the disease has disproportionately affected lower socioeconomic groups, for various reasons.

 

[Princess Fiona]

We can look at the UK which has around 80% vaccinated (close to double jabbed, 77%); they are getting between 30-50K daily cases and around 60-80 daily deaths.

They are about 10x the population of NSW, so that would be 3-5K daily cases and 6-8 deaths. For perspective, Australia has around 40 deaths due heart disease every day, so it's sad but not unreasonable we would accept this.

It should come down further for them with child vaccinations and the next generation of vaccines.

I think you would find almost universal agreement that we would accept this.
Hopefully we get there soon.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'm actually surprised fast food is still open in Melbourne, considering you're being told not to do daily shops. Fast food is only for a single meal so how does that meet the risk/benefit threshold? Sure, low risk for customers in the drive through but there's the staff going to work, catching public transport, food delivery, cleaners etc all so you can have a coffee or a burger. A higher risk of customers going inside to pick up.

You work you way down the likelihood of transmission risk. And also looking at reward (Take away food is allowing many small businesses to survive)?

People when they shop do it mainly indoors and are then inside for a much longer period than it takes to pick up takeaway. There have been cases of staff to shopper transmission, and also of shopper to shopper transmission.

Have there been cases due to people picking up takeway in Vic?

• I don't recall one being discussed in the last few outbreaks. Indeed I am not sure if there has been one at all.
• The prepared food related cases have been at dine in establishments before lockdown. ie Ms Frankies
• A lot of take away is delivered
• What is picked up is often done by not entering indoors _ Where you do have to go inside to pickup there is a limit on how many people can be inside.
• Though yes when cases were rampant in the Vic Second Wave take-away did become delivery only. If cases did climb that could well come back in.

Now the concern has been people gathering to consume outside a take-away business as people gathering and talking is of course a transmission risk. So the coffee shops have been cracked down on in South Yarra who would turning a blind eye to the people sitting outside, and the cannot remove your mask rule brought in to make it easier for police to enforce. Plus the pubs involved have had it reinforced that they cannot serve people who do not actually go away.