Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Princess Fiona]

Then how do people make money to buy… well I guess not KFC but some kind of other food?

We’ve become so obsessed with “numbers” and covid zero that we’ve lost perspective. Of each “case” each day, remember the majority are actually just “positive test results” who don’t actually get sick. Yes, some will, and we can deal with them.

NSW has well and truly flattened the curve. Contrary to popular belief, this “outbreak” is very much under control using these extreme containment measures. The last thing we need is even more draconian restrictions that will simply lead to even more public distrust.

It’s not yet under control with 77 in ICU. That’s more than 10% of the adult bed base in NSW.

 

[N860CR]

protect the vulnerable.

Which we’ve done. They’ve been eligible for a vaccine for some 6 months.

 

[Lynda2475]

The 15yo who died caught covid at his workplace (KFC) - although he didn't die OF covid.

More worrying with that case is where/how he picked up pneumococcal meningitis which is what he died from? Its spread by droplets, so he had to have been unmasked so less likely to have happened at work where he would have been masked, vs socialising where he may not have been.

 

[N860CR]

It’s not yet under control with 77 in ICU. That’s more than 10% of the adult bed base in NSW.

After 2 months of an “outbreak”? Sounds pretty good. And how many of those were people who chose not to get vaccinated?

 

[justinbrett]

It’s not yet under control with 77 in ICU. That’s more than 10% of the adult bed base in NSW.

I know that is true, but back in March 2020 when we bought the thousands of ventilators - what was the plan then?

 

[Lynda2475]

I think the chains would be higher risk as these have 20+ people in a small space, the mom & pop takeaway shops are probably better with just 2-3 people.

At very least, require 100% vaccination for these workplaces.

I dont think Ive ever seen more than 6 staff members at local KFC or Maccas - 2 in kitchen, 1 on drive through, 1 on counter and a manager and they are on one of Sydney's busiest roads.

With the exception of the manager, very few of the crew in the evenings would be over 18, quite a lot of 14 and 15yos who cant get vacicnated. So maybe just mandatory vacicnation for those 16 and over.

 

[N860CR]

I know that is true, but back in March 2020 when we bought the thousands of ventilators - what was the plan then?

To use them in dedicated, customized covid wards. I was involved in the setup of one of those wards, and in its first year it had two visitors. Both during the northern beaches outbreak, and both of whom were fine and just wanted to go home for NY.

I’d say 10% of normal ICU capacity in the middle of a global pandemic is a pretty outstanding result.

 

[burmans]

I know I spend more time yelling at the reporters on my screen than the pollies.

Indeed, my wife would say the same about me, and a handful in particular of whom James is indeed one.

 

[dajop]

You don't have to be a health expert to know that covid doesn't spread any more at night than it does during the day. Just think about it.

It's all for optics.

I don't know why all the debate about curfews. It is blatantly obvious what the Vic government is trying to achieve, I am not sure why no-one ever says it, it has to be all about reducing the likelihood there will be parties and dinner gatherings that go well into the evening, which seem to always figure in spread of the virus (and often "superspread"). Sure, people can still party during the day or early evening, but that's not what we are programmed to do, generally.

 

[justinbrett]

I dont think Ive ever seen more than 6 staff members at local KFC or Maccas - 2 in kitchen, 1 on drive through, 1 on counter and a manager and they are on one of Sydney's busiest roads.

With the exception of the manager, very few of the crew in the evenings would be over 18, quite a lot of 14 and 15yos who cant get vacicnated. So maybe just mandatory vacicnation for those 16 and over.

They are small outlets then. To be fair, the KFC in Newcastle is the largest in the southern hemisphere and the Maccas normally has around 50 cars in the drive through at any time of day.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I'm of the opinion you either lockdown to get Reff below 1 or otherwise open up and protect the vulnerable.

It's the worst of both worlds at the moment. I don't see the point in this much stress on the community if we're going to be in the thousands of daily cases anyway.

Yes at 600+ today a known reproductive rate of 1.3 means about 10,000 per day. Some might be naive for thinking that means NSW have flattened the curve. NSW have a lot of unknown I feel in coughberland and Blacktown, which hasn't even been looked at with surveillance testing - which poses a further risk on critical industries.

Unfortunately everyone is vulnerable due to still being undervaccinated - NSW is still under 30% of eligible fully vaccinated.

 

[Lynda2475]

of whom James is indeed one

I would have loved Dr Chant to say to James she had recommended that reporters not attend in person LOL.

When the Feds do Pressers they take dial in calls, maybe if the daily state pressers had the same, the reporters would be more throughtful with their questions given they may only get one.

Who does James work for? Behaviour would suggest newscorp.

 

[justinbrett]

Yes at 600+ today a known reproductive rate of 1.3 means about 10,000 per day. Some might be naive for think that means NSW have flattened the curve. NSW have a lot of unknown I feel in coughberland and Blacktown, which hasn't even been looked at with surveillance testing - which poses a further risk on critical industries.

Unfortunately everyone is vulnerable due to still being undervaccinated - NSW is still under 30% of eligible fully vaccinated.

This is actually the meaning of flatten the curve.

It's just that when we said we were going to flatten the curve, we meant eliminating the virus. But this is what flattening the curve means.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I know that is true, but back in March 2020 when we bought the thousands of ventilators - what was the plan then?

Put them in recovery, OT, private ICUs, Coronary Care Units.
Find the staff to operate them. Upskill people who haven’t looked after ventilated patients before, bring forward medical students, people out of retirement etc. Stop all elective surgery and redeploy etc.
Yes we can do it but nobody in NSW Health wants to get to that stage because if we do all of the patients seeking healthcare will suffer the knock on effects.

 

[justinbrett]

Put them in recovery, OT, private ICUs, Coronary Care Units.
Find the staff to operate them. Upskill people who haven’t looked after ventilated patients before, bring forward medical students, people out of retirement etc. Stop all elective surgery and redeploy etc.
Yes we can do it but nobody in NSW Health wants to get to that stage because if we do all of the patients seeking healthcare will suffer the knock on effects.

I think also we've since donated a lot of the ventilators to Indonesia and PNG

 

[burmans]

Yep - 10-11 more weeks until NSW is 70% double dosed is far too long. The 600 will be about 10,000 per day if the reproductive rate is not slowed.

I think NSW have to force critical industries to actually stop using workers from the LGAs of concern and to see specific exemption. Go to 25% capacity for critical industries.

That might also help the asymptomatic testing situation which is only Canterbury-Bankstown LGA authorised workers at the moment (plus health and aged care in Fairfield and one other area). Blacktown and I think coughberland need asymptomatic testing I feel

This whole question of when vaccination starts to have an effect is an interesting one. I just plotted out the vaccine rate against cases in the UK and it doesn't seem to need to get to 70% to have an effect. In fact at about 50% fully vaccinated turn down in number of cases starts and as far as I remember the other restrictions did not change.

Now I'm not saying 50% is anywhere near enough or there aren't other factors but I don't think we will need to wait until 70% to see some effect on cases.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

This is actually the meaning of flatten the curve.

It's just that when we said we were going to flatten the curve, we meant eliminating the virus. But this is what flattening the curve means.

Well by that definition a reproductive rate of 4 is also flattening the curve.....

I thought flatten the curve was about minimising the stress on hospitals etc....if NSW keeps a reproductive rate of 1.3 for 11 weeks the 600+ is 10,000 per day. In most people's books that would flatten our hospitals, not the curve.

 

[justinbrett]

Who does James work for? Behaviour would suggest newscorp.

James is from Daily Tele. Andrew Connell is from Sky.

Don't think anyone should be shedding tears that News Corp is holding right wing governments to account, it proves the Krudd crowd wrong that they only go after the left.

 

[N860CR]

Yes at 600+ today a known reproductive rate of 1.3 means about 10,000 per day. Some might be naive for think that means NSW have flattened the curve. NSW have a lot of unknown I feel in coughberland and Blacktown, which hasn't even been looked at with surveillance testing - which poses a further risk on critical industries.

Unfortunately everyone is vulnerable due to still being undervaccinated - NSW is still under 30% of eligible fully vaccinated.

Against an expected reproductive rate of 5. So yes, curve has been flattened. It’s not flat, it’s flatten.

Again, virtually all current deaths are in people who were eligible to be vaccinated but chose not to be. I’m unsure as to why there is this double standard. Basically everyone agrees that the end goal should be 70/80% of people offered the vaccine. We have people dying now who were offered but did not accept it. It’s a concern that we are already not prepared to accept that.

 

[Saab34]

I don't see the point in this much stress on the community if we're going to be in the thousands of daily cases anyway.

The hospitals will suffer though they can’t get into the 1000s. We can’t get to scenes like what we have seen in some neighbouring countries in regards to overloaded hospitals.

They need to probably model what’s the worst case scenario in September/October and sadly start planning for it.