Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Presser; 65 cases in 24 hours till midnight last night

Foley.

• Hospitalisations and those in ICU have increased.
• One case overnight in Mansfield area. Linked to Shepparton. Will in tomorrow's figures.
• Only 12 cases in isolation for entire infectious period.
• 55 cases linked. 10 are under investigation.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Victoria ‘unlikely’ to eliminate Delta as PM backs NSW on reopening

A leading epidemiologist says lockdowns, intensive contact tracing and vaccination would be required to merely flatten the curve of the current outbreaks because the ability of the virus to spread had drastically changed.

amp.theage.com.au

So an about-face after days of (now I guess unauthorised) representatives of Doherty staying it wasn't the basis of the model.......

 

[OATEK]

Sydney 830.

 

[Lynda2475]

Not all patients are truthful either

Which is why they should be rapid testing anyone who presents to hospital emmergency, and PCR testing anyone scheduled for surgery. When there is material community spread you should just assume everyone is positive until proven otherwise.

Post automatically merged: Aug 22, 2021

And todays deaths again in the elderly and unvaccinated.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So an about-face after days of (now I guess unauthorised) representatives of Doherty staying it wasn't the basis of the model.......

No, not at all.

The modelling done, was the modelling done which was what would happen if an outbreak commence with only 30 cases. The model was first asked for back in June when the assumption was that we in "bubble" Australia had all the time in the world to rollout a vaccination program so that when an outbreak occurred what the outcome would be. This was pretty stupid to only run that scenario and smacks of the ATAGI mistake of running with individual risk and lack of outbreaks so that people could wait for Pfizer.

There are public copies of the modelling available, so you can read for yourself what it modelled.


This does not preclude doing different modelling now for what happens with a much larger community occurring., or if you will a model of what the vaccination rate is required to be for when you have ongoing active community spread.

The UK is a real life example of this. Though they also had about 20% having had covid which we have not got and so any new modelling would need to factor that difference in.

ie

A spokesman for the federal government said that national cabinet had asked the institute to continue its work to model various reopening scenarios.​

​

So they will no doubt now run new modelling for what happens with active community spread being in existence, rather than for what it was modelled on which was for a new outbreak at various vaccination levels starting from no ore than 30 cases.

 

[justinbrett]

So an about-face after days of (now I guess unauthorised) representatives of Doherty staying it wasn't the basis of the model.......

We are definitely seeing a shift towards the NSW pragmatism in other jurisdictions - another 21 cases in NZ today and they’re now suggesting their old methods might not work for controlling Delta.

VIC is laying the groundwork as well in case their cases don’t go down. Even QLD say an outbreak there is inevitable.

 

[Lynda2475]

It is what happens with these numbers in NSW which will most determine when restrictions can significantly be progressively eased, and then later ultimately be removed (or in the main removed). Though hospitalisations etc will lag say vaccination rates

Time to split those numbers into to vaccinated vs unvaccinated. Deaths and hospitalisations in the unvaccinated (especially anyone over 50 who has had 6 months to do so) should not be used as a metric to restrict the vaccinated.

No one in ICU is fully vaccinated.

 

[justinbrett]

Not quite over as the deputy premier said yesterday. I’d say if the statewide lockdown lifts (Greater) Newcastle will remain locked down.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Even QLD say an outbreak there is inevitable.

Outbreaks everywhere were always going to happen, which is why AZ should never have been slowed down.

 

[justinbrett]

Outbreaks everywhere were always going to happen, which is why AZ should never have been slowed down.

QLD CHO has spaced AZ back to 12 weeks due to the “low threat”

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Time to split those numbers into to vaccinated vs unvaccinated. Deaths and hospitalisations in the unvaccinated (especially anyone over 50 who has had 6 months to do so) should not be used as a metric to restrict the vaccinated.

No one in ICU is fully vaccinated.

Splitting numbers will not assist at all.

The reality is that the Health System still has to be able to deal with the load it has to carry. The load is what it is, and what it will be, and no amount of bookkeeping will affect that.

Our health workers need for us to get that load to a manageable level.

Unfortunately there will remain people who will remain unvaccinated. Some through choice and some through being unable to.
It may be for example that if vaccination rates are not high enough, that some form of restrictions may remain. This could include what unvaccinated people cannot do etc.

 

[Lynda2475]

Splitting numbers will not assist at all

It does, it highlights where the real risk is (and doesnt over state it, because its the unvaccinated are driving the cases) and will help gain support for an extra medicare levy for those who havent bothered to get vaccinated.

Many of the deaths are "with covid" not "from covid", it is misleading to include those who were in palliative care as covid numbers becuase those people were already at end of life due to other factors, they would have died in same period without covid.

 

[Lynda2475]

Our health workers need for us to get that load to a manageable level.

Lol dont lump all of us into a single group. They need the unvaccinated to get vaccinated and those with covid to stay at home.

Those who are fully vaccinated, observe physical distance and good hygiene dont need to do anymore - we arent driving hospitalisations.

 

[oznflfan]

So hard watching walking tour video's om Youtube. London, Budapest, Las Vegas, all out and about in August. Us not so much, hard seeing us doing same summer walks here in Australia in February next year.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

QLD CHO has spaced AZ back to 12 weeks due to the “low threat”

really hope that doesnt come back to bite them, they are already lagging behind the rest

 

[Must...Fly!]

So hard watching walking tour video's om Youtube. London, Budapest, Las Vegas, all out and about in August. Us not so much, hard seeing us doing same summer walks here in Australia in February next year.

Agree. Though on the flip side, life was mostly normal here in summer and pretty dire in the European winter. Will be interesting to see if history repeats again - hopefully not for the Europeans!

 

[TheRealTMA]

Exactly.

People like a goal. A target. With a reward. A race.

It would be good to get this change in before NSW hits 4 digit cases as well. Help take the sting out and reprioritise it.

Haven’t you heard? We now don’t have plans or goals etc, we only have Phases so no one can be held responsible for their failures.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Splitting numbers will not assist at all.

The reality is that the Health System still has to be able to deal with the load it has to carry. The load is what it is, and what it will be, and no amount of bookkeeping will affect that.

Our health workers need for us to get that load to a manageable level.

Unfortunately there will remain people who will remain unvaccinated. Some through choice and some through being unable to.
It may be for example that if vaccination rates are not high enough, that some form of restrictions may remain. This could include what unvaccinated people cannot do etc.

I wonder whether NSW authorities will do special commissioning of Doherty - vis a vis making some relaxations (say for example fully vaccinated going out - and associated people who will lie that they are fully vaccinated, and also as a guess children ineligible to be vaccinated would be allowed out) and the impact it would have on NSW/Sydney case number.....including hospitalisation and ICU.

NSW still have to navigate the next 3 months of being undervaccinated.

Even at 70% of eligible vaccinated - its probably a touch under 60% of the population......

 

[Lynda2475]

The proof of the unvaccinated driving the bulk of hospitlisations is very clear:



50% of hospitlisations and 70% of ICU are aged over 50 and have had over 6 months to get fully vaccinated. Unfortunately the 30-49s are grouped together but the 40-49s have had 2.5 months to get vaccinated, so some of those have also failed to get vaccinated when they could.



In todays presser Hazard confired that ICU is not overwhelmed.

The anger of being locked down will continue to grow and as the number fully vaccinated exceeds the number who arent, there will be no acceptance of waiting for the tardy.

The vulnerable are all already able to get vacicnated, at some point the responsiblity needs to shift to them and not be put onto others. If they dont get vaccinated lock them down not those who did.

 

[OATEK]

The NSW presser was very orderly today, with no one shouting at a premier to resign etc. I thought dear old Brad did well, Dr Gale is excellent, and (IMHO) the messaging was on target about suppression and vaccination. Starting to see glimmers of hope.