Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Friend whose son has been working in Japan for almost 3 years is ready to come home and now the problem is two fold.

1. How to get a flight home, cost isn't the issue as its part of his work agreement but availability and,

2. His parents have since relocated from NSW to WA and how to get across the WA border to his family/resettle into new life

If be flying into BNE or PER if possible. Scoot have seats available into PER from SIN next month if he can book an SQ flight to SIN

Great detailed suggestion.. In difficult covid times, I'd also go madrooster.....just to make sure to get the set of tickets where the Singapore transit presents no issues

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Incorrect, vaccines do not completely stop transmission but they significantly reduce the chance. You are still less likely to be infected with covid if you are fully vaccinated, and if you are, you are still less likely to infect others due to the reduced viral load. This is in addition to a reduced severity if you do get infected.

We do not need misinformation about vaccines and their effectiveness being circulated.

If 10-20% of adults do not get vaccinated, then that is a large pool of people to create hospitalisations etc from.

On top of that there can also be some spread from the vaccinated.

Issue #69: Vaccination, risk/benefit, herd immunity and passive immunity

In this Setting it Straight Professor Peter Doherty explains why even herd immunity won't protected the unvaccinated from COVID19.

www.doherty.edu.au

As we’ve seen with the global rollout of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, even outstanding products like the AstraZeneca adenovirus-vectored and Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccines may not protect against some virus replication in the upper respiratory tract (URT). And, while people who’ve had two vaccine shots are about 90% less likely to develop severe disease that requires hospitalisation (#49)they can still transmit the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, though likely at a lower level.​

​

Why is there that divergence between mild infection in the URT and severe clinical consequences for those who aren’t fully vaccinated? Vaccine injected into the arm leads to the clonal expansion of virus-specific T cells and B cells in the regional lymph nodes (#42), then the localisation of (B cell-lineage) Ig-producing plasma cell ‘factories’ to the bone marrow. Here, they constantly secrete virus-specific Igs into the blood that take-out (neutralise) any SARS-CoV-2 virions that get into the circulation. Stopping (or limiting) this ‘viremic’ phase protects major organs like the heart, kidneys and brain, along with the epithelial layer of the blood vessels which, if infected, can trigger the formation of potentially lethal blood clots. On the other hand, the much lower levels of Ig that have ‘spilled over’ into nasal mucus (#10, #11) will be less likely to ‘hit-on’ an incoming SARS-CoV-2 virion before it encounters an ACE2+ positive URT epithelial cell, invades and starts to produce new infectious progeny.​

​

What this tells us with respect to opening up Australia by achieving ‘herd immunity’ is that those who are unvaccinated cannot expect, as is the case with many other infections, that they will be safe because the vaccinated people around them have protective antibodies. The unvaccinated can catch COVID-19 from vaccinees who are fully immune but, nonetheless, may still be breathing out some virus. We can see the consequence of that in the USA, which has around 70% of the population (aged 18 and over) fully vaccinated. As at 16 July, 2021, 99.5% of those Americans who are dying from COVID-19 are unvaccinated.​

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​

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Vaccination means that we as a community can live with Covid. It does not mean that we will be living without Covid unless substantial control measures are employed, and I think the majority are tired of living in bubbles. Living with Covid means adverse health outcomes for some.

 

[SydneySwan]

Friend whose son has been working in Japan for almost 3 years is ready to come home and now the problem is two fold.

1. How to get a flight home, cost isn't the issue as its part of his work agreement but availability and,

2. His parents have since relocated from NSW to WA and how to get across the WA border to his family/resettle into new life

What terrible parents! Can’t they relocate back to NSW?

 

[OATEK]

If 10-20% of adults do not get vaccinated, then that is a large pool of people to create hospitalisations etc from.

On top of that there can also be some spread from the vaccinated.

Issue #69: Vaccination, risk/benefit, herd immunity and passive immunity

In this Setting it Straight Professor Peter Doherty explains why even herd immunity won't protected the unvaccinated from COVID19.

www.doherty.edu.au

As we’ve seen with the global rollout of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, even outstanding products like the AstraZeneca adenovirus-vectored and Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccines may not protect against some virus replication in the upper respiratory tract (URT). And, while people who’ve had two vaccine shots are about 90% less likely to develop severe disease that requires hospitalisation (#49)they can still transmit the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, though likely at a lower level.​

​

Why is there that divergence between mild infection in the URT and severe clinical consequences for those who aren’t fully vaccinated? Vaccine injected into the arm leads to the clonal expansion of virus-specific T cells and B cells in the regional lymph nodes (#42), then the localisation of (B cell-lineage) Ig-producing plasma cell ‘factories’ to the bone marrow. Here, they constantly secrete virus-specific Igs into the blood that take-out (neutralise) any SARS-CoV-2 virions that get into the circulation. Stopping (or limiting) this ‘viremic’ phase protects major organs like the heart, kidneys and brain, along with the epithelial layer of the blood vessels which, if infected, can trigger the formation of potentially lethal blood clots. On the other hand, the much lower levels of Ig that have ‘spilled over’ into nasal mucus (#10, #11) will be less likely to ‘hit-on’ an incoming SARS-CoV-2 virion before it encounters an ACE2+ positive URT epithelial cell, invades and starts to produce new infectious progeny.​

​

What this tells us with respect to opening up Australia by achieving ‘herd immunity’ is that those who are unvaccinated cannot expect, as is the case with many other infections, that they will be safe because the vaccinated people around them have protective antibodies. The unvaccinated can catch COVID-19 from vaccinees who are fully immune but, nonetheless, may still be breathing out some virus. We can see the consequence of that in the USA, which has around 70% of the population (aged 18 and over) fully vaccinated. As at 16 July, 2021, 99.5% of those Americans who are dying from COVID-19 are unvaccinated.​

​

​

​

Vaccination means that we as a community can live with Covid. It does not mean that we will be living without Covid unless substantial control measures are employed, and I think the majority are tired of living in bubbles.

Where has herd immunity suddenly come from - I haven't hear that in our discussions. Its probably a non-starter anyway, as flu has shown in the past.

 

[Pushka]

Covid: Cornwall tourists urged to 'stay away' as cases rise

Visit Cornwall says only people who have booked should visit as cases nearly double in a week.

www.bbc.com

It's not doing well though

That was a massive music festival. Byron Bay equiv.

 

[justinbrett]

If 10-20% of adults do not get vaccinated, then that is a large pool of people to create hospitalisations etc from.

On top of that there can also be some spread from the vaccinated.

Issue #69: Vaccination, risk/benefit, herd immunity and passive immunity

In this Setting it Straight Professor Peter Doherty explains why even herd immunity won't protected the unvaccinated from COVID19.

www.doherty.edu.au

As we’ve seen with the global rollout of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, even outstanding products like the AstraZeneca adenovirus-vectored and Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccines may not protect against some virus replication in the upper respiratory tract (URT). And, while people who’ve had two vaccine shots are about 90% less likely to develop severe disease that requires hospitalisation (#49)they can still transmit the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, though likely at a lower level.​

​

Why is there that divergence between mild infection in the URT and severe clinical consequences for those who aren’t fully vaccinated? Vaccine injected into the arm leads to the clonal expansion of virus-specific T cells and B cells in the regional lymph nodes (#42), then the localisation of (B cell-lineage) Ig-producing plasma cell ‘factories’ to the bone marrow. Here, they constantly secrete virus-specific Igs into the blood that take-out (neutralise) any SARS-CoV-2 virions that get into the circulation. Stopping (or limiting) this ‘viremic’ phase protects major organs like the heart, kidneys and brain, along with the epithelial layer of the blood vessels which, if infected, can trigger the formation of potentially lethal blood clots. On the other hand, the much lower levels of Ig that have ‘spilled over’ into nasal mucus (#10, #11) will be less likely to ‘hit-on’ an incoming SARS-CoV-2 virion before it encounters an ACE2+ positive URT epithelial cell, invades and starts to produce new infectious progeny.​

​

What this tells us with respect to opening up Australia by achieving ‘herd immunity’ is that those who are unvaccinated cannot expect, as is the case with many other infections, that they will be safe because the vaccinated people around them have protective antibodies. The unvaccinated can catch COVID-19 from vaccinees who are fully immune but, nonetheless, may still be breathing out some virus. We can see the consequence of that in the USA, which has around 70% of the population (aged 18 and over) fully vaccinated. As at 16 July, 2021, 99.5% of those Americans who are dying from COVID-19 are unvaccinated.​

​

​

​

Vaccination means that we as a community can live with Covid. It does not mean that we will be living without Covid unless substantial control measures are employed, and I think the majority are tired of living in bubbles.

That is not what you said in your original post. I am arguing with your point that "They do not stop transmission."

That is a dangerous thing to circulate - it will stop transmission more often than not. A lot of people who are not a high risk of dying from covid should still get vaccinated to reduce the chances of others getting infected even if they don't care about themselves.

We need to keep this message crystal clear.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Where has herd immunity suddenly come from - I haven't hear that in our discussions. Its probably a non-starter anyway, as flu has shown in the past.

I was speaking of the 10-20% of adults who will not get vaccinated, but who will get infected and who will infect each other.

 

[Princess Fiona]

This area currently has the highest rate of new cases in Scotland (and it is a very high rate). It is also the number 1 most vaccinated area in the entire UK. These are just two facts and not intended to be anti-vax. What's missing is the age profile of the cases. Still, it is surprising at the very least.

View attachment 256922

Half of the cases in the West of Scotland are in people under 29.
Percentage of people fully vaccinated in that 18-29 age group in East Dunbartonshire is 53%.
Schools are back and they are not yet vaccinating 12-16 years in Scotland. They only started 16-18yrs at the beginning of August.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

That is not what you said in your original post. I am arguing with your point that "They do not stop transmission."

That is a dangerous thing to circulate - it will stop transmission more often than not. A lot of people who are not a high risk of dying from covid should still get vaccinated to reduce the chances of others getting infected even if they don't care about themselves.

We need to keep this message crystal clear.

Perhaps read all that I posted.



And while I am a believer in vaccination and in opening up once vaccination rates are high enough. A significant proportion of people will choose to not get vaccinated, and others cannot get vaccinated.

Others may forget, or delay too long, to get their booster shot etc.

 

[justinbrett]

Perhaps read all that I posted.



And while I am a believer in vaccination. A significant proportion of people will choose to not get vaccinated, and others cannot get vaccinated.

Others may forget, or delay too long, to get their booster shot etc.

I did, and it didn't make it any more correct.

I am arguing with your specific statement that vaccines don't stop transmission - they do. It's a large part of why people should get vaccinated (otherwise, why bother having targets, if you want one get it, otherwise, your loss). To suggest otherwise is misinformation.

That then pokes holes in your argument that cases can't come down - it can, it depends how successfully it reduces the transmission (the extent is not yet definitive with Delta), what the vaccination rate is and what other restrictions we have in place.

 

[clarkkent]

Less armchair blah blah and more models please.

 

[clifford]

Where has herd immunity suddenly come from - I haven't hear that in our discussions. Its probably a non-starter anyway, as flu has shown in the past.

This appears to be the case according to a report I've recently read in a learned journal.

Apparently with the Delta strain, it has been suggested that "herd immunity" is not possible.

 

[Pete98765432]

Less armchair blah blah and more models please.

This echo chamber wouldn’t be the same without the armchair experts

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I did, and it didn't make it any more correct.

I am arguing with your specific statement that vaccines don't stop transmission - they do.

Vaccines do not 100% stop transmission, so the vaccinated can still infect another even if less likely do so. And even one cases with Delta can easily spark a whole new outbreak.

And, while people who’ve had two vaccine shots are about 90% less likely to develop severe disease that requires hospitalisation (#49)they can still transmit the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, though likely at a lower level.​

It's a large part of why people should get vaccinated (otherwise, why bother having targets,

Why bother having targets? = The main benefit of vaccines is in minimising severe health outcomes for most, but not all.
The more that get vaccinated, the the fewer who will adverse health outcomes.

if you want one get it, otherwise, your loss).

I think you know that I am vaccinated, and that I am also a strong advocate for people to get vaccinated including with AZ.

​

That then pokes holes in your argument that cases can't come down - it can, it depends how successfully it reduces the transmission (the extent is not yet definitive with Delta), what the vaccination rate is and what other restrictions we have in place.

Covid 19 is going to be endemic.

100% of people are not going to get vaccinated in Australia. I think they are fools, but that does not alter that many will choose not to get it, or will wait for Pfizer etc.


Very few people have yet been infected in Australia to date. Only 54,000 cases so far. If we have 2-4 million who stay unvaccinated then we easily get a lot more than the 54,000 cases we have had to date.


People are going to more and more not follow restrictions as we go on. Governments will in time also more and more stop deploying restrictions at the level they now do. The risk of Covid will be accepted and life will go on again. Most of us will be vaccinated, but sadly some will not be.

If hospitalisations keep rising then that may hopefully motivate more and more to get vaccinated.

​

 

[justinbrett]

Vaccines do not 100% stop transmission, so the vaccinated can still infect another even if less likely do so. And even one cases with Delta can easily spark a whole new outbreak.

And, while people who’ve had two vaccine shots are about 90% less likely to develop severe disease that requires hospitalisation (#49)they can still transmit the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, though likely at a lower level.​

Why bother having targets? = The main benefit of vaccines is in minimising severe health outcomes for most, but not all.
The more that get vaccinated, the the fewer who will adverse health outcomes.



I think you know that I am vaccinated, and that I am also a strong advocate for people to get vaccinated including with AZ.

​

Covid 19 is going to be endemic.

100% of people are not going to get vaccinated in Australia. I think they are fools, but that does not alter that many will choose not to get it, or will wait for Pfizer etc.


Very few people have yet been infected in Australia to date. Only 54,000 cases so far. If we have 2-4 million who stay unvaccinated then we easily get a lot more than the 54,000 cases we have had to date.


People are going to more and more not follow restrictions as we go on. Governments will in time also more and more stop deploying restrictions at the level they now do. The risk of Covid will be accepted and life will go on again. Most of us will be vaccinated, but sadly some will not be.

If hospitalisations keep rising then that may hopefully motivate more and more to get vaccinated.

​

I think you got my point, I'll leave it there.

 

[Quickstatus]

As I said before I've decided not to participate in this post for various reasons.
I will make an exception here:

For those interested in some science (trivia depending on point of view) here are the Pango lineages of the various Covid variants
The current main Delta Pango code is B.1.617.2 (which also includes all the AY codes)

There is a new rapidly mutation variant of interest (VOI): C.1.2 which is originating in South Africa and has the greatest genetic distance from the original Wuhan Variant - Pango A (from whose RNA sequence used for all the current vaccines).
Its not yet a variant of concern (VOC)

The average mutations/year - actually called substitutions/year - is about 26/year
C.1.2 about double that
Delta variants in the middle about 30-40

Also people seem to talk about the Delta variant as the Delta Variant. There are multiple subtypes and continual mutation. In certain people who are Covid positive and are immune compromised - who can harbour the covid virus for a long time, these viruses can mutate within the human body.
(One patient covid positive for 155 days - the Covid virus mutated 20 times)
Mutation can be good or bad.
The other message from this is thatVOc will generally come from areas of low immunity (Alpha - no immunity, Delta - India, and now C.1.2 from South Africa)

What that means is uncertain. Rapid mutations can often result in a short lived variant
Apart from South Africa, it has been seen in New Zealand, UK, Portugal
The further the variant is from Pango A, the higher the possibility that vaccines become less effective and tests less accurate (if mapped over time).
The extent to which that occurs is yet to be demonstrated.
At the moment I am uncertain where the mutations are on the virus.

Also evidence that 3rd Pfizer is effective - efficacy at least 92%

Cov-Lineages

cov-lineages.org

(The circle represents mutation speed)


(Paper here: The continuous evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa: a new lineage with rapid accumulation of mutations of concern and global detection)



.......

Viral load over time comparing Unvaccinated infected vs Vaccinated infected (= vaccine breakthrough) for B.1.617.2
Ct is the number of PCR cycles required to detect virus. Higher means lower viral loads
Depending on testing regime Ct higher than 30-35 = negative Covid test.

 

[VPS]

That was a massive music festival. Byron Bay equiv.

yes but there is still a large number of cases in the UK with a lot of deaths - no perfect solution sadly.

Get vaccinated everyone (preaching to the converted I know)

 

[Pushka]

yes but there is still a large number of cases in the UK with a lot of deaths - no perfect solution sadly.

Get vaccinated everyone (preaching to the converted I know)

Indeed. Young people weren't vaccinated it seems.

 

[tgh]

Thanks for stepping back in QT.. I have missed your input.
The final curtain call for the Covid fat lady remains inscrutable , IMnsHO...

 

[Must...Fly!]

In the context of the discussion above about vaccines and contracting the virus

https://twitter.com/x/status/1432272665226534919