Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dairyfloss]

NSW numbers today:

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW surprising low positivity rate off the back of super high testing.....one day doesn't make a trend .....yada yada yada - wonder if there could be a negative tests backlog like there was acknowledged about 10 days ago....

 

[justinbrett]

NSW surprising low positivity rate off the back of super high testing.....one day doesn't make a trend .....yada yada yada - wonder if there could be a negative tests backlog like there was acknowledged about 10 days ago....

Gladys was beaming today, very cheerful. Getting to 70% first jab tomorrow is probably why.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Gladys was beaming today, very cheerful. Getting to 70% first jab tomorrow is probably why.

Might be even in today's numbers given a possible data anomaly in yesterday's numbers.

Its funny recalling all the nay-sayers saying we should open up when everyone has been given access.

NSW still haven't given everyone eligible access (eg to Pfizer).

Delta is a game changer.

(Edit: it just dawned on me the phrase was " when everyone has been offered" a vaccine - in NSW not everyone has been offered a vaccine eg 16-17 in LGAs not of concern due to sheer Pfizer demand ie not enough appointment slots and not given priority for appointments).

 

[justinbrett]

Might be even in today's numbers given a possible data anomaly in yesterday's numbers.

The numbers are definitely slowing down. We cracked 1000 7 days ago, and by previous rates we would be over 1500 by now. I think we're down to about 1.13 last I saw.

Its funny recalling all the nay-sayers saying we should open up when everyone has been given access.

NSW still haven't given everyone eligible access (eg to Pfizer).

Delta is a game changer.

I think about this a lot - with all the noise about limited vaccines - yet we're basically already at 70% single jab, it gives me great hope for our final vaccination rate. NSW knows what is booked in so I would guess that is what's making her happy.

 

[Lynda2475]

NSW still haven't given everyone eligible access (eg to Pfizer)

This is not factual, anyone 16-59 can currently book a Pfizer vaccination in NSW. 12-15 years olds without special needs are the only cohort who have to wait til mid September.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Delta is a game changer.

I see this comment so many times.

As if Delta is what made covid serious, over 800 dead in Victoria last year. The game changers are two fold:

1. Covid
2. Vaccine

The Numbers

 

[Must...Fly!]

ABC reports that playgrounds will open in Victoria (good).

But the curfew will stay (bad).

 

[justinbrett]

23 cases for ACT. Updated outbreak comparison for daily cases:



Wonder if ACT will ditch covid zero now?

 

[burmans]

I've been mapping the rate of increase in cases in NSW, on a 7 day moving average, it's definitely slowing down. Not peaked yet but Gladys confirmed again today they are expecting peak within 2 weeks which I'd have to agree with. The number of vaccinations they have been getting into peoples arms have to have an affect sometime.

 

[justinbrett]

I've been mapping the rate of increase in cases in NSW, on a 7 day moving average, it's definitely slowing down. Not peaked yet but Gladys confirmed again today they are expecting peak within 2 weeks which I'd have to agree with. The number of vaccinations they have been getting into peoples arms have to have an affect sometime.

Yep, I think that's a pretty universal view, the numbers don't lie. The peak is probably going to be less than 2000 at this point.

 

[N860CR]

Yep, I think that's a pretty universal view, the numbers don't lie. The peak is probably going to be less than 2000 at this point.

Correct. Numbers don’t tend to lie. Surely this means we can put the “hospital system will be overrun” BS to sleep. It’s simply fear mongering.

 

[Lynda2475]

Latest weekly surveillance report clearly shows it is the unvacinated burdening the hospital system, as vax rates increase we should see these numbers drop

 

[justinbrett]

So Queensland are now using under 12s as their latest reason not to open the border.

She said the US was seeing a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” and she said people in Tokyo had told her that unprotected children were wearing masks everywhere, including in schools and childcare centres.

“Unless there is an answer on how these young people are going to be vaccinated, you are putting this most vulnerable population at risk,” she said.

“So anyone who has grandchildren, or young children, or nephews or nieces know how that plays on people’s minds.

Considering there is no vaccine for under 12s anywhere, is she suggesting closing the border until 2023?

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[burmans]

Well, to be fair though hospitalisations and ICU peak doesn't align with caseload, it lags. While lower case numbers will flow through into hospitalisations and ICU numbers within a few weeks there is certainly not much sign of it yet. So while I tend to agree that hospitals wont be overrun I do think there will be considerable stress on them to flow through yet.

 

[justinbrett]

Well, to be fair though hospitalisations and ICU peak doesn't align with caseload, it lags. While lower case numbers will flow through into hospitalisations and ICU numbers within a few weeks there is certainly not much sign of it yet. So while I tend to agree that hospitals wont be overrun I do think there will be considerable stress on them to flow through yet.

Which is exactly what NSW has said.

 

[Lynda2475]

“Unless there is an answer on how these young people are going to be vaccinated, you are putting this most vulnerable population at risk,” she said.

This is hilarious since local data shows that under 12s are far from the most vulnerable.

The most vulnerable are 80+ and over 50s in general (even though these have hig vacination rates), those under 17 are the least vulnerable.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I've been mapping the rate of increase in cases in NSW, on a 7 day moving average, it's definitely slowing down. Not peaked yet but Gladys confirmed again today they are expecting peak within 2 weeks which I'd have to agree with. The number of vaccinations they have been getting into peoples arms have to have an affect sometime.

What's your peak number prediction, based on your graph? Or when does it fall below 1?

 

[dairyfloss]

So Queensland are now using under 12s as their latest reason not to open the border.

She said the US was seeing a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” and she said people in Tokyo had told her that unprotected children were wearing masks everywhere, including in schools and childcare centres.

“Unless there is an answer on how these young people are going to be vaccinated, you are putting this most vulnerable population at risk,” she said.

“So anyone who has grandchildren, or young children, or nephews or nieces know how that plays on people’s minds.

Considering there is no vaccine for under 12s anywhere, is she suggesting closing the border until 2023?

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<sigh> Can someone send her this, please (from a recent SMH article):

“The evidence shows, to the best of our knowledge to date, COVID-19 – even with Delta – remains a mild illness for children,” says Royal Australasian College of Physicians president-elect and paediatrician Dr Jacqueline Small.

I really don't understand why AP and co. don't want to open up as soon as it is reasonably possible? (i.e. by the Doherty Report?).

QLD can't survive on it's own. They need the other states, and really, the international visitors coming in and spending to survive, let alone to thrive. Yes, they might be a bit behind on shots, but that can be fixed with the right message and impetus.

I do hope the tune changes once other States are having fun and hash-tagging #SorryNotSorryQLD on their holiday insta feeds.

 

[justinbrett]

Dan Andrews talking now. Haven't seen him this serious since last year.

"These numbers won't go down. These numbers will go up. The question is, by how much".

Officially VIC & NSW now have the same strategy. It's all about vaccination.