Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

Back to the good old pre-covid day, where there is fudging everywhere.

I think truck drivers are considered super-essential workers and hence don't have the normal isolation/quarantine rules apply to them until they are a known/confirmed positive. If they are out of State when the positive test comes through, I guess they still have a "right" to find their way home unhindered so they can isolate. I think its still 7 day routine test for this group.

I think the truckies are doing a fabulous job in keeping up supplies. I'd like them all to be vaccinated so would like vaccination pit stops on the various highway routes to make it easier for them to be vaccinated. I was more wondering if AP didn't want to have a community transmission reference in her state.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think the truckies are doing a fabulous job in keeping up supplies. I'd like them all to be vaccinated so would like vaccination pit stops on the various highway routes to make it easier for them to be vaccinated. I was more wondering if AP didn't want to have a community transmission reference in her state.

Yes Qld authorities don't want a community transmission reference/inference - the announced 2 week hard border closure would not have stopped it - but the fudging would have made it appear otherwise.

 

[justinbrett]

Greg Hunt when asked about the QLD Premiers alarmist claims of deaths even after 80%:

"Selectively misusing the Doherty modelling breaches good faith and damages public confidence"

The federal CHO also dismissed the claims.

 

[Lynda2475]

The two things of note in NSW today are:

1. Loosening of restrictions in 12 LGAs of concern such that outdoor exercise is no longer limited to 1hr a day, its unlimited outside of curfew. Given in recognition of hitting 70% first jabs for over 16s.

2. The deaths were yet again in older unvaccinated people (3/5 with serious underlying conditions) plus another two very elderly vaccinated people with significant underlying health conditions.

Vaccination in healthy people keeps them out of hospital and alive.

 

[moa999]

An interesting UK study in this article.
Vaccine only reduces risk of catching Covid by about 50%. Obviously substantially higher reduction in significant effects.

Delta variant renders herd immunity from Covid ‘mythical’

Head of Oxford Vaccine Group rules out overall immunity, but also questions need for booster jabs

www.theguardian.com

Basically means we will be living with Covid for a long time and you can't vaccinate your way to zero.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Greg Hunt when asked about the QLD Premiers alarmist claims of deaths even after 80%:

"Selectively misusing the Doherty modelling breaches good faith and damages public confidence"

The federal CHO also dismissed the claims.

Just watching this back now. Really giving the Queensland government a serve here.

 

[moa999]

Loosening of restrictions in 12 LGAs of concern such that outdoor exercise is no longer limited to 1hr a day

It's sort of a nothing reduction, given it was something that was impossible to enforce anyway.

Smarter decision from Victoria today, who is now making the dosage interval for both Pfizer and Astra Zeneca 6 weeks.

 

[straitman]

It's sort of a nothing reduction, given it was something that was impossible to enforce anyway.

Smarter decision from Victoria today, who is now making the dosage interval for both Pfizer and Astra Zeneca 6 weeks.

Please correct me if I am wrong but my understanding is that by reducing AZ to 6 weeks severely effects its efficacy.

... more a question than a statement.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

More UK than AU but relevant to impact of lockdowns / covid collateral damage:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433054600475693061

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

A small insight into NSW figures

- positivity rate for today is back above 1%.
- using a 5 day average method - the "reproductive" rate (over 5 days) is below 1

As we always say 1 day is not a trend.

 

[burmans]

No but a 5 day average may be.

 

[moa999]

reducing AZ to 6 weeks severely effects its efficacy.

Some marginal impact - but still way better than not having a vaccine.

But offset by having everyone vaccinated sooner.
And more importantly stopping the I'll wait for a Pfizer booking because I can get vaccinated quicker excuse.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Please correct me if I am wrong but my understanding is that by reducing AZ to 6 weeks severely effects its efficacy.

... more a question than a statement.

Yes I believe that's the case

 

[jase05]

I think the truckies are doing a fabulous job in keeping up supplies. I'd like them all to be vaccinated so would like vaccination pit stops on the various highway routes to make it easier for them to be vaccinated. I was more wondering if AP didn't want to have a community transmission reference in her state.

SA is setting a vaccination station up at Yamba and have asked for one at Nhill but at this stage Victoria not interested

 

[OATEK]

Please correct me if I am wrong but my understanding is that by reducing AZ to 6 weeks severely effects its efficacy.

... more a question than a statement.

I am unsure that there is a clear picture about efficacy and longevity of protection. The recent studies showing that AZ has a longer protection period might, or might not, have to do with the original 12 week gap. Perhaps having them both at 6 weeks might see similar coverage. Yes efficacy could be compromised, but my sense is not by enough to be concerned with now, more on when booster shots will be required.

 

[moa999]

using a 5 day average method - the "reproductive" rate (over 5 days) is below 1

Not seeing that in the main model I follow. Given today was the highest number yet, can't see the 5-day average going down

Progression of the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

Plot of cases and estimated R_eff for the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

chrisbillington.net

Post automatically merged: Sep 2, 2021

More UK than AU but relevant to impact of lockdowns / covid collateral damage

Or just getting a bad doctor who misdiagnoses.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Not seeing that in the main model I follow. Given today was the highest number yet, can't see the 5-day average going down

Progression of the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

Plot of cases and estimated R_eff for the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

chrisbillington.net

...

I don't know whether my version is epideimiologically or scientifically correct. But 5 days ago NSW had a "middle" figure and the past 4 days had two relatively high figures and two low figures (which I guess happen to offset each other). I guess its good the figures aren't climbing for a majority of days and perhaps that's what my version is measuring - how many high v low days. First time below 1.

 

[MARTINE]

Some marginal impact - but still way better than not having a vaccine.

But offset by having everyone vaccinated sooner.
And more importantly stopping the I'll wait for a Pfizer booking because I can get vaccinated quicker excuse.

Lots of competing tensions re dosing of AZ.
Lancet Study UK was published in March 21 (which is critical because data from mostly original Covid strain not current delta) looked at 4-12 weeks plus… optimum 3 months plus cited as better neutralising antibodies but other immune protections occur other than just antibody levels so this is beneficial even after 1 dose … so in rapidly spreading pandemic its better to have at least dose 1 which provides some immunity and a contracted regimen 4-6 weeks
The challenges with giving advice is that Long term is not available, the fundamental variables ie strain transmissibility and population variables keep influencing and changing the game.

 

[Lynda2475]

Given today was the highest number yet,

Today was not a record high number (1288), the highest day was 30th Aug (1293).

 

[Lynda2475]

reducing AZ to 6 weeks severely effects its efficacy

Yes and if you still want to wait the full 12 weeks you can (just choose a later date when booking dose 2), unless you work in an industry where full vaccination is required at a date which is earlier than 12 week mark for you.