Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Must...Fly!]

This is the problem with trying to keep the virus out. You need to have perfect controls in place that cover every possible scenario which is not possible with humans in a system.

Exactly what I was going to post in response.

The continued functioning of the state's economy relied on a traffic controller going to one toilet over another.

How ridiculous is that? It's not the controller's fault, it's the fault of the policy that leads to such a consequence from such innocuous behaviour .

 

[lovetravellingoz]

OK, so is your point of no return was one person earlier???

No quite, but if he had of used the staff toilets Vic would not have anywhere near the problem it now has.

After him though the Teacher and family were super-spreaders and that was a momentum shift. From there is where large multiple chains grew and grew and kept birthing others.

Other chains may have also have grown from the Traffic controller, or may have been grumbling away.

 

[Must...Fly!]

No quite, but if he had of used the staff toilets Vic would not have anywhere near the problem it now us.

After him though the Teacher and family were super-spreaders and that was a momentum shift. From there is where large multiple chains grew and grew and kept birthing others.

Other chains may have also grown from the Traffic or controller, or may have been grumbling away.

Your first paragraph would seem to be nullified by the next two?

There is no point in the whats, ifs and maybes any more. We are in the position we are in and the government has finally conceded that long term lockdowns and economic catastrophe are unsustainable.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Exactly what I was going to post in response.

The continued functioning of the state's economy relied on a traffic controller going to one toilet over another.

How ridiculous is that? It's not the controller's fault, it's the fault of the policy that leads to such a consequence from such innocuous behaviour .

The controller was quite diligent in their other behaviours. ie Promptly got tested.

Lapses in protocols are always going to occur. But yes it was a sliding door moment.



It is more that after that when people who were symptomatic for a week or more did not get tested, and who kept going to work, socialising etc. And since that time many others have also chosen to act in that way. That is not a momentary lapse or mistake.

 

[antycbr]

Exactly what I was going to post in response.

The continued functioning of the state's economy relied on a traffic controller going to one toilet over another.

How ridiculous is that? It's not the controller's fault, it's the fault of the policy that leads to such a consequence from such innocuous behaviour .

Guess my BEng (Systems) comes through sometimes.

 

[dairyfloss]

I wonder at what point do they stop reading out the details of each age, area and gender, especially if the forecast was up to 80 people each day.

They didn't do that even today (well, at least not the vaccination status)... perhaps the threshold has been reached. >10 maybe? They will publish elsewhere in their daily data of course, but too much detail for the pressers.

 

[OATEK]

The controller was quite diligent in their other behaviours. ie Promptly got tested.

Lapses in protocols are always going to occur. But yes it was a sliding door moment.



It is more that after that when people who were symptomatic for a week or more did not get tested, and who kept going to work, socialising etc. And since that time many others have also chosen to act in that way.

The one thing we are certain of, from the lived experience in NSW, is that many are infectious before the onset of symptoms. So it would not matter how quickly after onset that they are tested, they will have been infectious in the community.

Can we do away with victim blaming and bolding, and just talk about how sh!tty Delta is, and how we need to power on with vaccinations.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The one thing we are certain of, from the lived experience in NSW, is that many are infectious before the onset of symptoms. So it would not matter how quickly after onset that they are tested, they will have been infectious in the community.

Can we do away with victim blaming and bolding, and just talk about how sh!tty Delta is, and how we need to power on with vaccinations.

I was disagreeing that it was the school (Al Taqwa) that was the problem. From all reports those at the school responded very well once it was indicated that a case had worked their while infectious.

Post automatically merged: Sep 3, 2021

Another Pfizer Swap deal.

4 million doses from the UK within a month.

 

[OATEK]

I was disagreeing that it was the school (Al Taqwa) that was the problem. From all reports those at the school responded very well once it was indicated that a case had worked their while infectious.

Sigh!

If it had been a sentence about "It was X and not Y", then fine. But all the emphasis on toilet etiquette for outdoor workers some time ago does not really add to our understanding of the spread that is happening in homes and workplaces right now. I know I am talking to myself, so will leave it there.

 

[moa999]

Don't care much for the numbers any more, but it's pretty clear the situation in Victoria is likely as serious as it was in NSW.

Far worse at the moment with R value over 2.
NSW has been pretty consistent at about 1.25 for months.

It's interesting that ACT is just keeping it under 1, and NZ at about 0.75.

Assume the big difference in the ACT is more people who can WFH, and NZ has arguably gone harder, with shutdown of takeaway food and non-food retail, which also impacts factories and distribution centres.

 

[Batterytraveller]

Dan heavily promoting that there will be lockouts for the unvaccinated. Saying no sports, no pubs etc. unless you can prove a double jab, coming soon.

Hopefully motivates people to get vaccinated.

 

[Batterytraveller]

Far worse at the moment with R value over 2.
NSW has been pretty consistent at about 1.25 for months.

It's interesting that ACT is just keeping it under 1, and NZ at about 0.75.

Assume the big difference in the ACT is more people who can WFH, and NZ has arguably gone harder, with shutdown of takeaway food and non-food retail, which also impacts factories and distribution centres.

The sense of lockdown fatigue is pretty palpable in Melbourne right now, I would be in no way surprised if spread is as bad as NSW, if not worse, even with tougher settings. People are much less willing to be compliant (especially with no-jobkeeper and no enhanced jobseeker making it harder for those doing it tough)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I was disagreeing that it was the school (Al Taqwa) that was the problem. From all reports those at the school responded very well once it was indicated that a case had worked their while infectious.

Post automatically merged: Sep 3, 2021

Another Pfizer Swap deal.

4 million doses from the UK within a month.

I never said the school or West Hoxton was the problem. I said it was the killer, or probably more accurately the point of no return.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Dan heavily promoting that there will be lockouts for the unvaccinated. Saying no sports, no pubs etc. unless you can prove a double jab, coming soon.

Hopefully motivates people to get vaccinated.

Well that’s not in keeping with DOherty perhaps, or NSW’s possible approach to releasing at 80% double dose.....let more screeching begin?!?!

 

[antycbr]

I think this might have gotten missed. From The Guardian blog of the PM's presser.

The PM is asked if he would envisage the international border opening when the country reaches 80%, even if some states don’t want to/aren’t open.

Yes. The National plan sets out that clearly.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think this might have gotten missed. From The Guardian blog of the PM's presser.

The PM is asked if he would envisage the international border opening when the country reaches 80%, even if some states don’t want to/aren’t open.

Yes. The National plan sets out that clearly.

Probably worth repeating in the prediction int borders thread

 

[antycbr]

Probably worth repeating in the prediction int borders thread

I did but surprised no one picked up on it as it's a Big Deal with a capital B and capital D. The pathway for QF opening up is looking locked in, indeed maybe conservative.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Well that’s not in keeping with DOherty perhaps, or NSW’s possible approach to releasing at 80% double dose.....let more screeching begin?!?!

I don’t see anything on the National Plan that states that unvaccinated residents will be free of restrictions?

Certainly specifically mentions at 70% easing of restrictions for vaccinated residents.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I don’t see anything on the National Plan that states that unvaccinated residents will be free of restrictions?

Certainly specifically mentions at 70% easing of restrictions for vaccinated residents.

The most recent murmuring noted here on this thread was that the NSW Premier would allow unvaxxed or 1 dosers out at 80% double dosed - and as has been constantly harped NSW authorities are following Doherty apparently. But of course, not heard anything more specific or if that position has changed. About 7 weeks to 80% in NSW......

 

[jb747]

This is the problem with trying to keep the virus out. You need to have perfect controls in place that cover every possible scenario which is not possible with humans in a system.

Ah, then remove the humans from the system entirely. Oh, Boeing tried that....

The sense of lockdown fatigue is pretty palpable in Melbourne right now, I would be in no way surprised if spread is as bad as NSW, if not worse, even with tougher settings. People are much less willing to be compliant (especially with no-jobkeeper and no enhanced jobseeker making it harder for those doing it tough)

I suspect Victoria isn't all that far from losing control of the lockdowns entirely. Too many. In too many places that didn't have any covid. Dan's only alternative may well be opening for the vaccinated, as I don't know that the 70% (or whatever it is) will continue being compliant forever.